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Saturday Lineup (12:00 PM EST)
The format: DraftKings -- $50,000; 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 Super-flex
Oklahoma State QB Taylor Cornelius ($8,300) vs. Kansas State
Cornelius doesn't get the respect of some of his contemporaries because he's a "system quarterback." Very well. Oklahoma State's system guarantees numbers, and Cornelius hasn't disappointed. Cornelius has gone over 30 fantasy points (fp) in four of six games this year, including each of his last two. Last week he accounted for five total TD against Iowa State. He's got a plum matchup here. K-State is allowing over 400 yards per game, including 241.3 passing yards per game. The Wildcats rank No. 107 S&P+ in passing efficiency against and No. 106 in sack rate. Plus, KSU's run defense is an abomination, would could allow Cornelius to top his season-high of 46 rushing yards from last week against Iowa State.
Memphis RB Darrell Henderson ($9,500) vs. UCF
I don't always bite on the big-ticket items in DFS, but I'm taking the plunge this time. Love this matchup for Henderson. This game is going to be a fast-paced shootout (over/under of 81!), and Memphis is going to leverage UCF's struggles against the run all afternoon. Henderson is No. 1 in the FBS with 934 rushing yards, No. 2 with 12 rushing TD and No. 1 with 36.0 fppg. He's also by far and away No. 1 in the country with an obscene 11.8 yards per carry. If you can clear the budgetary room for him, make it happen.
Texas RB Keaontay Ingram ($5,500) vs. Baylor
Ingram continues to be priced at a huge discount because he hasn't actually had the enormous fantasy game I've been waiting for despite a continued increase in usage. I expect the breakout game to occur on Saturday. Baylor's run defense, which is allowing nearly 200 ypg while ranking No. 122 in S&P+ ground explosion against, is unspeakably bad. Last week, it allowed 250 rushing yards and over 50 fp to limited Kansas State RB Alex Barnes. Ingram, a true freshman, has averaged 14.5 touches over the past two games as he establishes himself at the top of the pecking order. HC Tom Herman knows he has to target Baylor's biggest weakness early and often, and the explosive Ingram, who's averaging over 6.0 ypc, is going to the biggest beneficiary of that.
Auburn WR Ryan Davis ($4,700) vs. Tennessee
Nice little spot here to buy low on Davis. Last year, Auburn's slot receiver broke out with an 85-815-5 line while leading the nation with an 80%+ catch rate. This year, as Auburn's offense has fallen off amid struggles of the offensive line and QB Jarret Stidham, Davis sits with an uninspiring 29-252-0 line while averaging less than 10 fppg. But here's the thing: He's still the undisputed top dog, here. Auburn's next-leading receiver has 17 catches. Nobody else has 10. Davis' season would be looked at a bit more favorably if he'd scored a few TD. We've got a shot for that against the lowly Vols. Davis had an 8-91-0 line last week against Mississippi State. He'll be heavily targeted Saturday against a Vols pass defense that ranks No. 125 in passing efficiency against. You know who's been the nation's most efficient receiver since the beginning of last year? You're looking at him.
Baylor WR Denzel Mims ($5,700) at Texas
One of the better matchup plays on the card. And frankly, we're being allowed to buy in at a head-scratching pricepoint. In three of the past four games, Mims has done each of the following: 1.) Caught at least eight balls, 2.) Scored at least one TD, 3.) Posted at least 23.0 fp. Texas' Achilles heel on defense is allowing explosive passing plays (No. 121 S&P+). Baylor has a top-25 offense and a strong passing attack. Its best deep threat is Mims, a long, speedy outside target who consistently wins in contested situations (he's already had some of the best catches we've seen this year). But unlike some other longball guys, Mims is an all-purpose receiver who sees heavy targets regardless of how the game is unfolding. The Baylor offense is designed around the mismatches he and Jalen Hurd present to the defense, and what the defense is willing to give up to make adjustments to slow them.
Penn State WR Juwan Johnson ($5,200) vs. Michigan State
Another matchup play here, though this one isn't the no-brainer that Mims is. I expected Johnson to break out in a big way this fall. Instead, he has battled drops and sometimes disappeared (zero targets in Week 3) amid a Penn State passing attack that has regressed. But Johnson has recorded nine receptions over the past two games combined, and he is, to be entirely fair, still Penn State's number one receiver in receptions. This is the matchup that could lead to his breakout game. Michigan State has the nation's best run defense, but its pass defense is awful (305.2 passing yards per game allowed!). If PSU's run game gets erased, they'll have no choice but to go to the air. This happened to Northwestern last week, when they abandoned the run against Michigan State and threw their way to victory.
Michigan State RB LJ Scott ($4,600) at Penn State
Scott has missed three straight games with a leg injury. He's been a gametime decision in each, but has pulled himself after going through warmups. He is listed as the starter for this game, and it would be a big surprise if he was withheld for a fourth straight game considering how close he's been in recent weeks to giving it a go. The Spartans badly need Scott to return to put a jolt in a ground game that has suffered significantly in his absence. Penn State's run defense is no great shakes. If Scott is indeed active and healthy, HC Mark Dantoniois going to look to feed him early and often.
Baylor QB Charlie Brewer ($6,500) at Texas
I alluded to Texas' struggles with the deep ball earlier. Texas is also quite bad at getting to the quarterback. The Longhorns' defensive strength is stopping the run. Baylor's pass-first offense is likely to skew even more in that direction this week. On top of the solid matchup, Brewer continues to be criminally overlooked by DraftKings. In the past five games -- all against FBS opponents -- he's topped 22 fp each time out. Brewer has attempted 104 passes in the past two games, and Baylor isn't going to cut his pitch count with a matchup like this. Brewer also provides a little extra value with his legs. He's scored four TD on the ground over the past four games.