Welcome back to week two of our DFS Soccer column! Last week was a bit of a disaster when it came to picking up goalkeepers with Thibaut Courtois getting sent off and Arsenal getting embarrassed at home, but it’s important to trust the process here as we try to find consistency in our method.
Now, if you have any doubts about using sportsbook odds for deciding on your goalkeepers, take a look at this great piece by Luis Pacheco that outlines goalkeeper points with and without the clean sheet and win bonuses. In that piece, Pacheco shows that many goalkeepers would score between 0 and 5 points were it not for bonuses and that bonuses are the backbone around which you should build around.
Before we get back to the goalkeeper charts though, I want to mention a few big themes I noticed from this weekend. I’m going to do this each week. It may not be the biggest themes of the weekend, but it will be things I found important while watching most of the weekend’s matches. The size of the list will vary, mainly depending on how many games I have watched, but these are just notes to keep in mind going forward.
- Sunderland’s defenders looked completely lost against Leicester. Kaboul in particular looked like he was playing a different sport, and as long as he starts, I really like opposing center forwards in fantasy.
- Shinji Okazaki was good this weekend despite not scoring. I thought he held the ball well despite lacking in size and had some fantastic passes and runs behind the defense.
- Petr Cech had a really poor day. I’m not sure if Mourinho saw him declining before agreeing to sell him to Arsenal, but if he did, that was a genius move. There was a report earlier this summer saying Mourinho was against selling Cech to Arsenal, but it’s hard to know if that was true and it’s worth keeping an eye on how Cech performs in the next few weeks. On this topic – Petr Cech now has more Premier League home losses under Wenger than he did under Jose Mourinho.
- Branislav Ivanovic was also really, really bad. He was getting burned by Jefferson Montero time and time again and would often just watch as the winger ran by him. If Montero made Ivanovic look bad, I can’t imagine what Manchester City’s midfield will do to him. Things could get ugly this weekend for the Blues, who are missing Courtois in goal.
Let’s take a look at this week’s goalkeeper charts. This week, I’ll be focusing on the slate that involves all Friday and Saturday matches, as that includes both the Friday + Saturday slate and the Saturday Only slate, which seems like the biggest one this weekend.
One thing I want to emphasize that I didn’t make clear last week on these charts is that the further a goalkeeper is above the red line, the better value he provides. The further he is below, the worse his value is.
On DraftKings, the values appear to be in Sergio Romero and Hugo Lloris. There is, of course, a bit of risk here. Romero may lose his job at any point in time were Manchester United to decide to keep David de Gea. Once the de Gea saga is over, Romero could find himself on the bench, so make sure you check lineups before Manchester’s match starts on Friday to make sure Romero is starting.
Lloris is much more expensive. He is, in fact, the most expensive goalkeeper this weekend, but he also provides great value at home against a mediocre Stoke City team. Tottenham played well last weekend and were a bit unlucky to concede through an own goal against Manchester United, so I certainly like Lloris this week. He is a safer value than Romero, but you sacrifice a lot of money there.
Swansea’s Lukasz Fabianski and Southampton’s Maarten Stekelenburg are also solid options this weekend, but I am afraid that Swansea could find themselves in a shootout, making Fabianski a bit of a risk. Stekelenburg has a good matchup at home, but he played poorly last weekend and is mistake-prone. I am concerned Stekelenburg may get benched in the near future, so make sure you check lineups if you use him. Both him and Fabianski are worth a shot in GPPs, but I wouldn’t use either in 50/50s.
On MondoGoal, the pricing seems to be a bit better. Romero, Lloris, and Stekelenburg stand out as the best options once again, but here, it is Lloris that is much cheaper. In 50/50s, Lloris gets my endorsement, while all four of Romero, Fabianski, Lloris, and Stekelenburg are in play in GPPs.
Sportsbook odds are not only useful for clean sheets, they can also be used to predict production from forwards. Forwards get the majority of their points from goals, and it’s almost impossible to do well in GPPs without hitting on at least a few goals. Looking at the odds of scoring a goal, here are the charts for percentage of a goal versus price on both sites.
Reading these charts is the same as reading the goalkeeper ones, and the further above a player is from the red line, the better value they present.
Looking at the chart, there is only one value that stands out and that’s Harry Kane. Kane is facing Stoke City at home and the sportsbooks have him scoring in 90 minutes at over 50% and scoring a brace at 22%. That’s incredible value despite his high price, especially since there is no one even close to having such a high percentage to score.
Another value that stands out on DraftKings is Troy Deeney. Deeney gets a West Brom defense that gave up three goals at home this past week and face a short week of recovery since they played on Monday. Deeney looked very dangerous in his first Premier League match and might not be a popular choice since he didn’t score in week one. He is a good option for both GPPs and 50/50s.
MondoGoal’s pricing here is similar to DK in that Kane is absolutely undervalued. He will be my top choice here as well, but the supporting cast might be different. Wayne Rooney costs less than Bafetimbi Gomis, Sadio Berahino, and Romelu Lukaku for no obvious reason. Rooney is playing away from home but faces Aston Villa and will once again lead Manchester United’s line. He should be heavily utilized on MondoGoal this weekend. Other choices here are Jermain Defoe and Troy Deeney. A note on Bafetimbi Gomis and Memphis Depay – Although both of them are below the red line, I think they are both in play in GPPs this weekend if you can fit them on your roster. They have fairly high chances to score and a goal would make their price worth every penny.
That’s it for me this week. Let me know if you have questions on Twitter and good luck to everyone!