Hello everyone! We have another great slate this weekend as we approach the end of the season and we are exciting for some soccer action! The matches in this weekend’s major DFS slate:
Watford – Aston Villa
Newcastle – Crystal Palace
Stoke City – Sunderland
West Brom – West Ham
Everton – Bournemouth
Arsenal – Norwich City
The one thing to note here is the number of games where a team is a big favorite. Arsenal should crush Norwich City, and Watford, despite struggling, have a big edge on Aston Villa. Everton is favored against Bournemouth at home and Newcastle should see off injury-prone Crystal Palace. This should provide us with a lot of value and some interesting tournament teams! Let’s get to the charts.
The choice here is easy. Petr Cech is the top choice and it’s not close. He is quite expensive, but an almost 50% chance to-win-to-nil is deserving of that price. Arsenal are huge favorites here, and the almost guaranteed win should gives Cech a great floor. If you don’t want to spend that much money, your next best option is Gomes. Gomes plays Aston Villa, who are horrendous on the road. He is a quality goalkeeper playing a struggling team, but Villa are not Premier League quality and shouldn’t pose a huge threat.
This chart is a bit deceiving this week. Welbeck has an insane chance to score, while Alexis Sanchez is behind quite a bit. The reason it’s deceiving is because Sanchez gets his value from assists, crosses, and fouls won as much as goals scored, so his value is often not best represented in a chart like this one. Due to that, it’s important to note Sanchez is my top play at striker this weekend and can be considered in cash games.
Welbeck is a great tournament target, while Troy Deeney is viable in all formats. He is on penalty duty and the matchup against Villa makes him a prime target. Odion Ighalo is a great tournament option. It's hard to describe just how bad Aston Villa have been this season, and picking strikers playing against Aston Villa at home has been a great strategy all season long. The differences in skill here are incredible, so I feel safe using Deeney in cash games despite the slightly elevated price. Newcastle’s Cisse is viable in all formats if he starts and can be used as salary cap relief.
Good luck everyone!