It’s week four and we’re already looking at some great storylines this Premier League season. Before we get to our sports book charts, let’s again examine some big themes of the past week.
- Manchester United have had one of the best defenses in the Premier League so far. They’ve kept three clean sheets and that hasn’t been by accident. The Red Devils have only conceded 21 shots, 7 per game, in their first three matches, and that’s a huge achievement for a team trying to get into the top four. They’re a good bet to lead the league in clean sheets this season. By the way, Sunderland have been the worst, as you’d expect.
- Aston Villa have been as bad in attack as we predicted, putting up only 7.7 shots per game with only 2 on target. They face a horrific Sunderland defense this week so that number is bound to increase.
- Watford haven’t been as bad as everyone is suggesting. They’ve kept two clean sheets and weren’t really that bad against Everton in week one either. Look for them to give Manchester City a fight this weekend, although it’ll likely be an unsuccessful one.
Let’s get to the odds now! A reminder that all odds are calculated from sports book odds. Also, don’t forget that names above the red line are good values, while names below the red line are considered to be overpriced.
The first thing that stands out is that Joe Hart is below the red line, suggesting that he’s not as good of a value as some of the other goalkeepers out there this week. Even if that’s true, it’s hard to not use Hart in cash games with such a great chance at a win and a clean sheet. There are certainly better options for GPPs, but in cash games, I think Hart shouldn’t be avoided.
The best value according to the odds is Brad Guzan, who is fairly cheap and faces a horrible Sunderland team at home. He should be considered in GPPs along with Jack Butland, Thibaut Courtois, and Simon Mignolet. Mignolet gets a big boost if Diafra Sakho is out injured (Sakho is currently questionable).
Joe Hart is more appropriately priced on MondoGoal and we see some of the same names stand out here in Courtois and Mignolet. Another name that stands out here is Hugo Lloris, but I wouldn’t recommend him when Guzan is cheaper and faces much easier opposition. Butland is also in play as a little bit more expensive option than Lloris.
There is no better play than Sergio Aguero this weekend. The striker has been amazing this season and faces newly promoted Watford. There is little to think about there. Diego Costa was also really good last weekend and has a favorable matchup – he’s not as good as Aguero but is a good option.
The sportsbooks really like Rudy Gestede’s chances this week against Sunderland and I won’t argue, but I also won’t use Gestede in 50/50s, just GPPs. Pedro is once again a great option at his price. Kane and Benteke can be considered for GPPs and Benteke could be used in cash games.
The situation here is very similar to DraftKings as it seems the pricing on both sites is very similar. Aguero stands above everyone else, while Gestede is the best value for the price. It seems like a fairly straightforward week, even though there is a number of values available at striker that will make it tough to choose in cash games. One thing is certain though, Aguero is king this week.
Good luck this weekend!