Hello everyone! Hope you had a good week six, I certainly did by riding Callum Wilson against Sunderland. The Bournemouth striker scored within the first five minutes and it was a fairly easy match from then on. First thing is first, three things we learned last week:
- West Ham love upsets. The Hammers have now upset both Manchester City and Arsenal, but they don’t seem to be as good as everyone thinks. Expected Goals metrics HATE them, and I know partially that’s because they’ve played both Manchester City and Arsenal, the two highest shooting teams in the league, but there is something to note about West Ham conceding a ton of shots. I think the Hammers will finish somewhere around 10th, which is about the middle point of their table position and expected goals position.
- Watford are no joke. They kept a clean sheet in week five against a good Swansea attack and then topped Newcastle last weekend on the road. They are a lot of fun to watch and Odion Ighalo has been as good as his name is awesome.
- Keep picking on Sunderland. Bournemouth beat them 2-0 last weekend and Manchester City gave them a 4-1 spanking in the Capital One Cup yesterday. This is just getting worse and worse for Sunderland and their defense looks horrific. They couldn’t do anything to contain Raheem Sterling and I don’t see how they’ll stop Memphis Depay. Welcome to the “Pick on Sunderland” bandwagon.
There are a lot of games that are projected to be fairly one sided this week. That’s a fairly foreign concept in the Premier League but it does give us a lot of options in fantasy. David de Gea seems like by far the best choice according to the sports book odds and I tend to agree. Sunderland don’t have anything going for them at the moment and I like de Gea’s chances at a clean sheet and a win. It helps that he’s a top three goalkeeper in the Premier League.
The second best choice is Simon Mignolet. Aston Villa are another goal-starved team and even though they play fairly well on the counter-attack, Liverpool should have enough to keep them out. At worst, Mignolet should have a win and a few saves to his name, so I think he’s a very safe cash game option.
Adrian, Begovic, and even Ruddy can be considered in GPPs.
MondoGoal is a bit different this week, especially since the sports books seem to think Southampton – Swansea have a good chance at finishing 0-0. Since MondoGoal doesn’t offer goalkeeper points for a win, all we care about is a clean sheet, and Stekelenburg becomes a fairly good option here, especially given his low price. He can let you fit a lot of firepower up top, especially in a slate that’s expected to be high scoring. Begovic is also quite a good play on MondoGoal, although it’s hard to play him when David de Gea is cheaper.
With goalscorers, we’re looking to pick on Sunderland once again. Manchester United are huge favorites at home and Wayne Rooney, Anthony Martial, and Memphis Depay are all great options. It's worth noting Rooney has been in a horrible slump and should only be played in GPPs. He shouldn't be trusted in H2H and cash games. Memphis is considered a “bad” value here on this chart but that’s mainly because this only looks at probability of scoring a goal. The Manchester United newcomer gets a big portion of his points from shots and crosses, so he, along with Alexis Sanchez, can be bumped up.
Diego Costa has been suspended for three matches, and Falcao is the likely starter for Chelsea. If he starts ahead of Remy, his price makes him a very good option against Newcastle. It’s worth noting that Pedro and Eden Hazard also have great odds to score, and they will also be top choices come Saturday. Last but not least, Daniel Sturridge and Christian Benteke also get a great matchup. Benteke was taken off at halftime as a precaution in the last match, but if he starts, I like his and Sturridge’s chances at a goal. EDIT: Benteke has been ruled out for 2-3 weeks and shouldn't be utilized this weekend. Sturridge becomes an even better option, as does Danny Ings if he starts.
MondoGoal’s pricing algorithm hasn’t really accounted for Anthony Martial’s scoring prowess yet. If Falcao and Martial start, it will be very tough to fade them on MondoGoal. I love both of them at that price and I think they should be used heavily in both GPPs and cash games. They allow you to completely stack your midfield and also pay up for a third top striker. Seems like a fairly straight up week this time around! Hope you guys all kill it!
That’s it for me this week. Good luck!