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DFS NBA Bargains: Monday

by Ryan Knaus

We have a seven-game night in the NBA this Monday, leaving plenty of DFS value to mined. From guys you almost must target to potential punt plays, we're here to break down the biggest values to be found. Let's start with a quick look at Vegas' expectations for tonight's slate:

 

Matchup

Over/Under

Spread

Bucks at Hornets

234

Bucks -4.5

Wolves at Cavs

215.5

Wolves -6.0

Rockets at Wizards

224.5

Rockets -2.5

Spurs at Bulls

215

Spurs -6.0

Celtics at Pelicans

227.5

Pelicans -2.0

Pacers at Jazz

208

Jazz -4.0

Magic at Warriors

214

Warriors -8.0

 

   

Bear in mind that injuries and lineups are subject to change at any moment! For the very latest news, stay tuned to Rotoworld’s injury report and player news pages!

 

We open with a look at tonight's bargains in DRAFT leagues!

 

DRAFT Bargains

 

Karl-Anthony Towns (DRAFT projection: 43.8) – KAT is listed as the second-best center tonight behind Clint Capela (45.5) and yes, Capela has been a monster lately. Tristan Thompson and the Cavs have been a mid-range matchup for centers lately, but I still can’t ignore KAT’s superior upside. He’s coming off a 70.4 fantasy point eruption and I’m banking on that becoming the new normal – there’s no 4reason he should be attempting fewer than 18+ shots per game for this Wolves team.

 

 

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Aaron Gordon (DRAFT projection: 31.3) – Gordon may not be Orlando’s top scoring option, an honor that belongs to Nikola Vucevic. Nevertheless, he’s a multi-cat stud who has failed to exceed 31.3 fantasy points just twice in his past 11 games. Draymond Green (toe) is out again tonight, depriving Golden State of their best defensive option vs. Gordon, so he’s a safe bet to exceed this modest valuation.

 

DeMar DeRozan (DRAFT projection: 41.4) – It’s not that DeRozan is projected egregiously low tonight, with his 41.4 sitting fifth among all guards. My desire to DRAFT him is based on the fact that Chicago is the best fantasy matchup of the night, edging out New Orleans, and they’ve done nothing to contain shooting guards all season. I’m comfortable targeting Fs and Cs early and claiming DeRozan as my top guard a bit later in the DRAFT.

  

 

FanDuel/DraftKings Bargains

 

 

Marcus Smart (SG, $4k FanDuel ... PG/SG, $4.1k DraftKings) – Smart is cheap tonight and the Celtics are up against one of the fastest-paced teams in the league in New Orleans. At 105.1 possessions per game, the Pelicans are third-fastest behind only the Kings and Hawks. Jaylen Brown is out on Monday due to a bruised tailbone, and Gordon Hayward (ankle) could also be limited, so Smart stands to benefit in multiple directions. He’s almost a lock for 5x value and could surge much higher if things break his way in a favorable matchup. I’m giving Terry Rozier (PG, $3.8k FanDuel) a look for the same reasons.

 

Robert Covington (SF, $6.8k FanDuel ... SF/PF, $5.9k DraftKings) – I typically keep these recommendations under the $6k threshold, but RoCo stands out as a potential bargain tonight. He’s playing a Cavaliers team that has been shredded by SGs all season long, presenting an ideal matchup. He’s also coming off a brutal 1-of-18 shooting performance that may push down his ownership rate, but I’m taking the opposite approach – 18 field goal attempts! That’s easily a season-high and Covington hasn’t taken that many shots since Dec. 19 last season, so I’m encouraged by his role offensively even if the shots weren’t dropping. Tom Thibodeau is one of the most predictable/obstinate coaches in the league and RoCo is almost guaranteed 35 minutes of action, so I’ll have a lot of exposure to him tonight.

 

Jonas Jerebko (PF, $3.8k FanDuel ... SF/PF, $4k DraftKings) – This is primarily a cash-game recommendation since Jerebko doesn’t have a high ceiling for DFS. He has been very consistent lately, though, with his value tethered to rebounds – he’s grabbed a minimum of seven boards in five straight games. The absence of Draymond Green (toe) ensures that he’ll log 20+ minutes and it’s not hard to hit value with such a low price-tag. If you need a punt-PF option to pay up for studs, give Jerebko some thought.

 

Alec Burks (SG, $3.5k FanDuel ... SG, $4k DraftKings) – Burks is averaging 15.5 points in his previous two games, with 22.1 fantasy points in that span. It’s not a gaudy number, but easily hits value and with Donovan Mitchell (ribs) out again on Monday we should see more from Burks even if he comes off the bench behind Royce O’Neale (SF, $3.5k FanDuel). I’m not against O’Neal despite his flop on Sunday, but am more inclined to get Burks in my lineups – DFS favors guys who can score the ball, and Burks fits the bill.

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.