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Best of luck and happy drafting!
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These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.
Odell Beckham Jr. – WR – NY Giants (DRAFT Projection: 14.2)
I have Beckham ranked within my top three at the receiver position. It doesn’t seem like much of a stretch either, as OBJ has been on a frantic pace with 20 receptions (33 targets), 352 yards, and three scores over his past three outings. It is safe to say that he’s playing his best football of the season, and it just so happens that he’s heading into arguably the best matchup 2018 has to offer. Beckham is squaring off against a Tampa team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. DRAFT has Odell ranked 10th among receivers and tight ends, but I’m bumping him up to third behind Thomas and Thielen.
Kareem Hunt – RB – Kansas City (DRAFT Projection: 17.5)
Sure, Kareem Hunt stung hopeful DFS backers with just 10.6 FP despite a nice matchup vs Arizona last Sunday. However, I’m not expecting that to become a trend moving forward. There’s actually a pretty good chance Hunt will pick up where he left off before Week 10’s disappointment. He’ll settle into a high-scoring Monday night matchup against the Rams, looking at plenty of opportunities via the air and ground. DRAFT has Hunt ranked ninth among running backs, but I’m moving him up to fifth.
Carson Wentz – QB – Philadelphia (DRAFT Projection: 19.9)
Carson Wentz will be playing in a dome this week against a New Orleans team that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Shootouts tend to be a regular occurrence in the Superdome, and this matchup could certainly follow that trend. Having another week to get new addition Golden Tate more acclimated doesn’t hurt either. Wentz still has plenty of playmakers to get things going until Tate is up to speed anyway. The Philly QB is clearly a top five quarterback this week – in my opinion.
These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.
Saquon Barkley – RB – NY Giants (DRAFT Projection: 23.2)
DRAFT loves Saquon Barkley. He has been the top overall play for several weeks now, which is a bold statement to routinely rank him above Gurley, Gordon, Kamara, etc. While I like Barkley in this matchup against the Buccaneers, I’ll gladly accept those aforementioned running backs ahead of him. In my opinion, Barkley needs to be downgraded to fourth or fifth overall, as you can see in the Top 10 Overall rankings below. Odell Beckham’s recent emergence (noted earlier) hasn’t exactly helped Saquon’s fantasy numbers.
Ben Roethlisberger – QB – Pittsburgh (DRAFT Projection: 20.3)
The home/road splits for Ben Roethlisberger have been well documented over the years. Sure, Big Ben has been rolling this season, but I’m still very hesitant to utilize him on the road. Even though the Jaguars have been beatable through the air in recent weeks, Roethlisberger still seems like an unnecessary risk in this spot. DRAFT has him ranked fifth among quarterbacks, but I actually removed him from the top ten on my personal list. There are so many better QB options this week.
Marlon Mack – RB – Indianapolis (DRAFT Projection: 14.1)
I’m not sure if I understand this lofty projection for Mack. Putting things into perspective, the 14.1 FP expectation makes Mack the next best running back behind the players mentioned in the Top 10 Overall. That probably shouldn’t be the case, right? The Indianapolis RB had a pair of excellent outings, but game flow (vs BUF) and matchup potential (@OAK) really helped him along. He may not have either of those situational factors to fall back on this Sunday, squaring off against a Tennessee team that has allowed the least fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Top 10 Overall. Most of this is pretty straightforward. Barkley was downgraded while Hunt and Beckham were upgraded – all of those notes were provided above.
- Todd Gurley – RB
- Melvin Gordon – RB
- Alvin Kamara – RB
- Saquon Barkley – RB
- Kareem Hunt – RB
- Christian McCaffrey – RB
- Ezekiel Elliott – RB
- Michael Thomas – WR
Adam Thielen – WR
Odell Beckham Jr – WR
James Conner – RB
Quarterback Rankings. Notable upgrades on this list compared to the pre-draft default rankings include Carson Wentz (rationale above) and Jared Goff (excellent game environment) … Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Blake Bortles were removed from the top 10 entirely.
- Patrick Mahomes – Tier 1
- Drew Brees – Tier 1
- Jared Goff – Tier 2
- Cam Newton – Tier 2
- Carson Wentz – Tier 2
- Matt Ryan – Tier 2
- Aaron Rodgers – Tier 2 (Thursday)
- Deshaun Watson – Tier 3
- Russell Wilson – Tier 3 (Thursday)
- Andrew Luck – Tier 3
Breakout WR candidates. You don’t need me to remind you that Tyreek Hill (14.2 projection) has extreme breakout potential. His performance and highlight reel from last Sunday likely burned that into your memory bank. He’ll have another excellent chance to provide upside in a Monday Night shootout against the Rams … Looking at the same game, Brandin Cooks (13.3 projection) is another breakout candidate with Cooper Kupp out of the picture … Scrolling deeper in the rankings finds Kenny Golladay (10.1 projection) as he continues to see more targets with Golden Tate traded away. Golladay looked great last weekend, and he’ll face a Panthers’ secondary that was completely roasted on Thursday Night Football at Pittsburgh.