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DRAFT NFL Strategy: Week 16

by Spencer Limbach
Updated On: December 19, 2018, 2:03 pm ET

Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT, it’s an innovative DFS game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last 2-5 minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Todd Gurley with your first pick, nobody else in your league can have him.

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

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It should be noted that this article looks at Week 16 games played on Sunday and beyond. In other words, the Saturday matchups of Washington-Tennessee and Baltimore-LA Chargers are not included.

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Russell Wilson – QB – Seattle (DRAFT Projection: 17.7)

 

Russell Wilson is a top five quarterback this week. He has a strong Sunday Night home matchup in a potential shootout vs Kansas City, a team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Wilson has been a fantast stalwart this season with an elite 31:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Critics would suggest regression is due at any moment, but this fantasy-friendly matchup against the Chiefs doesn’t seem like the time for Wilson to cool off. The 17.7 FP projection has him ranked 13th among quarterbacks on DRAFT, but I personally have elevated him to third at the position.

 

Todd Gurley – RB – LA Rams (DRAFT Projection: 14.7)

Gurley tweaked his knee last week, but early reports suggest he’ll be fine. Assuming that holds true throughout the week, he checks in as the top overall pick on this slate. The matchup is elite against an Arizona team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Game flow will be on his side with the Rams checking in as healthy 14 point road favorites. Los Angeles has motivation to lean heavily on their superstar running back while trying to clinch a first-round bye and potentially compete with the Saints for home field advantage. The injury concerns have caused DRAFT to conservatively project Gurley at 14.7 fantasy points, which ranks seventh among running backs. As long as he’s a “full go”, I’m taking Gurley with the first overall pick.

 

Antonio Brown – WR – Pittsburgh (DRAFT Projection: 12.3)

 

Brown was mentioned as underrated on DRAFT last week, and he salvaged his fantasy day with a 4-49-1 line for 12.9 fantasy points. This could be a shootout at New Orleans, and nobody would be surprised if Brown was heavily involved in those fireworks. While the Saints have been playing much better defense lately, they still have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. The pace of this game could be frantic, and Brown could get into the “track meet” atmosphere. He’s ranked as WR12 on DRAFT, and I believe he should jump to fifth behind Hopkins, Adams, Jones, and Thomas.

 

Other underrated players:

 

QB Drew Brees (18.6) is eighth in the pre-draft rankings at quarterback. While he has been very mediocre in recent weeks, some home cookin’ in a potential shootout vs Pittsburgh could easily turn things around. I’m listing him as my QB2 behind Patrick Mahomes.

 

Packers RB Aaron Jones has been placed on injured reserve, so RB Jamaal Williams (10.6) will step into a much larger role. He is a solid RB2 on DRAFT with a reasonable matchup at the New York Jets.

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Cam Newton – QB – Carolina (DRAFT Projection: 20.4)

 

Something is clearly wrong with Cam Newton right now. Reports suggest there are lingering problems with his right shoulder. The recent performances seem to back up that notion. This matchup vs Atlanta (allowed the most fantasy points to QBs this season) looks fantastic on paper. However, Cam’s seemingly limited ability may not be able to take advantage. There’s a good chance the Panthers will lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey instead. Newton is ranked as QB2 on DRAFT, but I have personally downgraded him to QB10 on my list.

UPDATE: Cam Newton has been ruled out. 

 

Matt Breida – RB – San Francisco (DRAFT Projection: 12.2)

 

Breida has been banged up all season, and he apparently aggravated his ankle injury towards the end of last week’s game vs Seattle. As of Wednesday, he is technically questionable to play in this upcoming matchup vs Chicago. There’s a decent chance he misses this game or is very limited if he does suit up. Even if he plays, what is he going to do against a tough Chicago defense while running on a bad wheel? This is an obvious downgrade out of draft consideration in leagues of six or more people.

 

Other overrated players:

 

It’s safe to say that QB Jameis Winston (19.1) is overrated while playing a solid (and motivated) Dallas defense on the road. Winston checks in as QB6 on DRAFT, but I have removed him from the top ten in my personal list.

 

GENERAL STRATEGY

 

Top 10 Overall. Todd Gurley jumps into the top spot while Davante Adams leaps into WR1 territory as the biggest movers compared to the default pre-draft rankings.

  1. Todd Gurley – RB
  2. Christian McCaffrey – RB
  3. Ezekiel Elliott – RB
  4. Saquon Barkley – RB  
  5. Alvin Kamara – RB
  6. Davante Adams – WR
  7. Julio Jones – WR
  8. Nick Chubb – RB
  9. DeAndre Hopkins – WR
  10. Michael Thomas – WR

 

Quarterback Rankings. Most of the movers and shakers at quarterback have already been listed. Brees, Wilson, and Rodgers see a nice upgrade. Luck was marginally downgraded while Newton and Winston dropped substantially.

  1. Patrick Mahomes – Tier 1
  2. Drew Brees – Tier 1
  3. Russell Wilson – Tier 2
  4. Aaron Rodgers – Tier 2
  5. Deshaun Watson – Tier 2
  6. Ben Roethlisberger – Tier 2
  7. Dak Prescott – Tier 2
  8. Andrew Luck – Tier 3
  9. Matt Ryan – Tier 3
  10. Cam Newton – Tier 3 (ruled out) 
Spencer Limbach
Spencer Limbach is a multi-sport daily fantasy specialist for Rotoworld. He can be found on twitter @Spencer_JL.