Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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We’re sitting on seven games for the main slate tonight.
DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS
Tyler Beede – SP – San Francisco Giants (vs Diamondbacks)
When it comes to daily fantasy, Beede is something of a random number generator. Walks and mistakes over the plate are his greatest weaknesses. The Arizona offense is neither especially patient nor powerful. Toss in pitcher friendly Oracle Park and Beede has a few factors in his favor. When he’s on, he’s capable of delivering over a strikeout per inning in over six innings. He hasn’t provided that sort of quality outing since mid-July. His worst days include negative point values. Consider him very high risk, high reward.
If you prefer to bet against Beede, Rojas might be your guy. He’s settled in as the Diamondbacks sixth hitter, although he’ll need to put together a couple good games to retain his role. After annihilating minor league pitching, he’s managed just six hits and four walks in 37 plate appearances. After never posting high swinging strike rates in the minors, he’s become whiff-prone in his first taste of the majors. Likely, we’re seeing some jitters. One thing he’s done well is make consistent hard contact. His discipline should serve him well against an erratic pitcher like Beede.
The Reds are visiting Lopez for his return from the injured list. The righty will likely be rusty and working on a pitch count. That means upwards of five or six innings against the shaky Marlins bullpen. In a small sample, VanMeter has emerged as a platoon hitter with a .301/.376/.481 batting line against righties. Notably, he posts excellent plate discipline, line drive, and hard contact rates. Lately, he’s hit leadoff or second in the lineup. Marlins Stadium will have a suppressant effect on his chances for a home run.
Posey has a long history of lefty mashing. While his 2019 results don’t reflect historical trends, a closer look at the numbers reveals very little change to his peripherals. In other words, even though he hasn’t hammered southpaws this season, he probably should have hit them hard. When you see analysts talking about a player regressing to his norms (as opposed to regressing to the mean), it refers to situations like this. We only have very small sample data on Young’s splits in the majors, but he does appear to be susceptible to right-handed hitters. Posey isn’t much of a power threat, but he could supply multiple hits and run production.
MID-TIER MUST PLAYS
Judge is finally shaking off a period of indifferent production. This has resulted in a persistent low price tag despite him often possessing one of the top projections in a given slate. That’s once again true versus a weak Mariners pitching staff. Milone is expected to provide the bulk innings and serves as an easy matchup for Judge. Milone has modest fly ball tendencies which reflects favorably on Judge’s odds for a home run.
HIGH PRICED VALUES
Sanchez may have the best chance at a homer in the entire slate. His offensive profile isn’t quite as dynamic as Judge who can also supply value via walks, hits, and run production. Sanchez is heavily invested in big flies. His walk rate is slight below average, and over one-third of his hits go over the wall. This makes him a wonderful investment in GPPs. He also profiles as perhaps the best multi-homer target.