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Anthony Rizzo
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MLB DFS Bargains: Monday 8/5

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: August 5, 2019, 1:05 pm ET

Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

Editor’s Note: Stay ahead of the competition from wire to wire with rankings, customizable projections, trade evaluator, exclusive columns and more in our Season Pass. And start using optimized lineups with our DFS Toolkit!

There are 12 games in the main slate this evening.

DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS

Erick Fedde – SP – Washington Nationals (at Giants)

Oracle Park is like Coors Field for pitchers. The venue greatly suppresses offense via clever wind-blocking construction. In most settings, Fedde is exceptional in his mediocrity. He doesn’t pile up innings or strikeouts. He even has issues with walks. For all his shortcomings, this matchup against a Quad-A quality Giants lineup at a friendly ballpark looks like a fair bargain. I will add this: while the math is favorable-looking for Fedde, I’m not sure I have the stomach to actually use him in more than a gimmicky one-off lineup.

Aristides Aquino – OF – Cincinnati Reds (vs Patrick Sandoval)

Anyone chasing home runs should consider Aquino. He has a roughly two-in-five chance to escape Great American Ballpark. There’s a bit of all-or-nothing in his approach. At Triple-A, he hit 28 home runs in 323 plate appearances but also posted a 25 percent strikeout rate. There’s reason to believe he’ll retain the power while striking out even more often in the majors. Sandoval is a decent left-handed pitching prospect who has yet to figure out Triple-A. Suspect command is likely to hold him to a short outing.  

Scooter Gennett – 2B – San Francisco Giants (vs Fedde)

A Giants stack is probably ill-advised if only because other teams will fire off more home runs. However, there is a whole collection of playable San Franciscans in tonight’s slate. Gennett claims to finally be feeling more comfortable at the plate after a rust-encrust debut in late June. Over the last 10 days, he’s batting a tolerable .270/.263/.432 in 38 plate appearances. A much-ballyhooed series at Coors Field didn’t yield sterling results, although he did hit his first homer of the season. If there’s any truth to Gennett’s emergence from slumber, then he’s one of the best multi-hit targets of the day.

Nick Castellanos – OF – Chicago Cubs (vs Chris Bassitt)

The wind is blowing out to right field tonight at Wrigley Field which perhaps doesn’t directly help pull-hitting Castellanos. The former Tiger has looked reinvigorated with the Cubs. Presently, he’s ensconced as the regular second hitter in the lineup. His line drive-oriented approach is a good pairing with Bassitt. There’s around a one-in-five chance for a home run with multi-hit outcomes also on the table.

Also Consider: Rick Porcello, Aaron Civale, Travis Shaw, Khris Davis, Ryan Goins, Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Jordy Mercer

MID-TIER MUST PLAYS

Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Chicago Cubs (vs Bassitt)

Castellanos may not benefit much from gusts to right field, but Rizzo sure does. The patient left-handed hitter will have the platoon advantage against Bassitt. Of course, Bassitt hasn’t shown any platoon splits in his career, but the unique conditions at Wrigley Field alter expectations. Fueled by a juicy baseball, Rizzo is having one of his finest seasons at the plate. There’s no sign of him slowing down.

Also Consider: Matt Olson, Mike Moustakas, Max Muncy

HIGH PRICED VALUES

Aaron Judge – New York Yankees (at Gabriel Ynoa)

Apparently, the Yankees can’t have anything nice. Recent injuries have sidelined Luke Voit, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Hicks, and Gleyber Torres. Didi Gregorius is playing through a minor hand injury. Of all the should-be regulars, Judge is still providing his usual blend of on base skills and sizzling power. Ynoa has allowed 1.77 HR/9. The Orioles bullpen is just as bad. Look for Judge and other Yankees to feast this evening.

Also Consider: Charlie Morton, Christian Yelich, J.D. Martinez

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on NBC Sports Edge, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.