Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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We’re working with a heavily truncated slate today. While the six-game early slate is larger, I suspect most of you read this column to play the regular evening contest. So we’ll take a peek at those four games tonight.
DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS
Tyler Beede – SP – San Francisco Giants (vs Diamondbacks)
Strikeouts are the name of the game, and Beede can supply those in droves. His current 10.02 K/9 is completely sustainable if not a tad lower than expected. Of course, command is a serious issue for Beede which explains why he has 6.96 BB/9 and a 6.96 ERA. His opponent features a mid-tier lineup. Spacious Oracle Park can help to keep the ball in the yard. Despite unspeakable downside, the upside for double-digit strikeouts is enough to ensure Beede is the top dollar-for-dollar value among the pitchers.
This is not the first time Davis has fallen into the bargain bin amidst a lengthy slump. He always surges out of the basement with a barrage of home runs. It will happen again – although not necessarily tonight. Canning is a challenging opponent who controls the strike zone and induces over a strikeout per inning. He’s had some issues with home runs (1.62 HR/9) through his first 10 starts.
Quite a few Nationals are competitively priced tonight for a neutral matchup against Alcantara. Even if the Marlins starter performs well, the Miami bullpen is a disaster zone. Of the cheapest plays in the Washington lineup, I like Eaton the most for his top-of-the-lineup role, superb plate discipline, and frequent balls in play.
MID-TIER MUST PLAYS
Not only are the Dodgers visiting Coors Field, the Rockies are calling upon an extremely exploitable pitcher. Lambert predictably works in the zone despite lacking the stuff to get away with it. He needs to nibble more. This particular matchup between Beaty and Lambert isn’t the highest value in Dodgers lineup. They’re both ground ball guys which limits Beaty’s potential. Fly ball hitters like Cody Bellinger make for better targets, but they also cost a boatload.
HIGH PRICED VALUES
Walker Buehler – SP – Los Angeles Dodgers (at Rockies)
It’s usually wise to avoid pitchers at Coors Field. I recommend ignoring this nugget of wisdom today. Not only is Buehler sufficiently talented to overcome the travails of pitching at altitude, his price more than fully reflects the venue. He costs the same as a typical upper-mid-tier pitcher despite an ace-like projection and a chance for double-digit strikeouts.