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Peter Alonso
AP
Daily Games

MLB DFS Plays: Saturday 7/6

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: July 6, 2019, 1:51 pm ET

This article will outline the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We will take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

Editor’s Note: Stay ahead of the competition from wire to wire with rankings, customizable projections, trade evaluator, exclusive columns and more in our Season Pass. And start using optimized lineups with our DFS Toolkit!

Let’s focus on the seven-game evening slate starting at 7:15pm ET.

PITCHER

Robbie Ray – Arizona Diamondbacks (vs Rockies)

Home/away splits are only truly relevant for one team – the Rockies. As a team, they have a miserable .224/.276/.378 batting line when away from the friendly confines of Coors Field. They’ve also compiled a 27.9 percent strikeout rate. Whiffs are Ray’s specialty. While he’s lost velocity and run prevent over the last two seasons, he continues to post around 12 strikeouts per nine innings (11.77 K/9). On most DFS platforms, a strikeout is the same thing as an inning pitched. In this case, he could record something like nine strikeouts in six innings, all with an extremely affordable price tag.

Also Consider: Noah Syndergaard, Gerrit Cole, Jon Gray, Kenta Maeda

CATCHER / FIRST BASE

Pete Alonso – New York Mets (vs Phillies)

Phillies starter Jake Arrieta is a ground ball pitcher who has developed a juiced ball-related home run problem (1.56 HR/9). As a powerful fly ball hitter, Alonso is a near-perfect pairing against him. Alonso is the hitter most likely to homer in this slate – he projects for something like a 40 percent chance at a deep fly. It’s too bad this game is at home run suppressant CitiField.

Also Consider: Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Dan Vogelbach, Paul Goldschmidt (value)

SECOND BASE

Jose Altuve – Houston Astros (vs Angels)

Slumpy stars are one of the most reliable market inefficiencies in DFS. Most slumps are circumstantial, and that mostly seems to be the case with Altuve. His disappointing performance can be pinned almost solely upon a .262 BABIP. His career rate of reaching base on balls in play is .337. He’s also in a bit of homer drought despite a career-high hard contact rate. Altuve has a long history as a platoon masher so he should enjoy facing a mid-tier southpaw Andrew Heaney.

Also Consider: Max Muncy, Ketel Marte, Robel Garcia (value)

THIRD BASE

Alex Bregman – Houston Astros (vs Angels)

Bregman is the top projected player at third base by a healthy margin. Although he’s also the second-most expensive, he rates as the best dollar-for-dollar value available. It’s awful hard to pass up players who carry the top projection AND value. Bregman, despite a .242 BABIP, is having an incredible season. He’s one of the most polished pure hitters in the league. In his career, Heaney has struggled with right-handed hitters, allowing a .258/.321/.477 batting line with 1.91 HR/9.

Also Consider: Matt Chapman, Kris Bryant, Justin Turner

SHORTSTOP

Javier Baez – Chicago Cubs (at White Sox)

This one is tricky. The Cubs are showing up as one of the better offensive stacks this evening, but they’re opposed by emerging ace Lucas Giolito. To use a Cubbie stack is almost like waiting for the bullpen to come muck things up. Baez at least has a valuable lineup role as the cleanup hitter at a homer happy venue. He projects as the second-best shortstop (behind Bregman) and the top value at the position.

Also Consider: Bregman, Paul DeJong (value), Andrelton Simmons (value)

OUTFIELD

George Springer – Houston Astros (vs Angels)

Let’s round out this expensive Astros stack. Springer is certainly a fan of this new baseball. He’s terrorizing pitchers of all stripes. He has a long history of platoon mashing including a career .277/.390/.519 batting line against lefties. Given Heaney’s own platoon issues, this looks like a nitro-matchup for the Astros leadoff man.

Khris Davis – Oakland Athletics (at Mariners)

What Davis giveth, Davis taketh away. I’ve been consistently recommending Davis through his long, possibly injury-fueled slump. Thus far, he’s yet to reward me (and by extension, you). However, every time I evaluate him, I come away convinced he’s more or less normal. A multi-homer binge is probably right around the corner. Soft-tossing Marco Gonzales actually isn’t homer prone, but neither does he suppress them. He tends to make short starts. The Mariners bullpen is among the worst in the league.

Also Consider: Cody Bellinger, Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout, Kyle Schwarber (value), Joc Pederson

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on NBC Sports Edge, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.