This article will outline the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We will take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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We have a relatively meaty 11-game slate this evening.
Justin Verlander – Houston Astros (vs Mariners)
The Astros should walk to an easy victory against Yusei Kikuchi and the Mariners. Although their offense is heavily left-handed, they don’t exactly mash right-handed pitchers. Verlander doesn’t have platoon splits either. Anything short of seven innings and nine strikeouts would be disappointing. It’s not hard to imagine this turning into a complete game shutout. If Verlander has one weakness this year, it’s home runs. He’s allowed a career-worst 1.54 HR/9.
CATCHER / FIRST BASE
Alonso is the top hitter in the slate thanks to his massive power and matchup against an eminently homer prone pitcher. Smyly is a fly ball pitcher who has allowed 2.76 HR/9. While he’s been better since joining the Phillies, he’s still allowed over 2.00 HR/9. Although the entire Mets stack is viable, Alonso is by far the likeliest Met to answer with a deep fly. In fact, he’s projected for just shy one half a home run. That’s unheard of. He’s also one of the best dollar-for-dollar values among top hitters.
Lux has yet to supply his owners with the gaudy stats we’re craving. It’s only a matter of time. He’s a hard contact and line drive machine. Beede has shown no ability to limit hard contact. In fact, his 46.4 percent hard contact rate is third worst among pitchers with more than 90 innings (Adrian Sampson and Jhoulys Chacin are worse). Lux projects comparably with all the best non-Altuves at the position and comes at a massive discount.
Davis is right there with his teammate Alonso when it comes to value, projection, and potentially massive ceiling. He projects to supply a one-in-three chance for a home run, and there are multiple alternative ways for him to deliver helpful production thanks to his role in the heart of the lineup. As a ground ball hitter, he has an additional advantage versus a fly ball guy like Smyly.
Bregman was also the top value at third base. If you’re playing on a platform where he qualifies at both positions, he fits better at shortstop. There are comparably projected third basemen tonight whereas none of the shortstops are within a point of Bregman.
At the heart of this recommendation is a juicy matchup between Bregman and an exploitable Mariners pitching staff. Kikuchi, a southpaw, has coughed up 2.06 HR/9 to go with a 5.36 ERA. When it comes to inducing whiffs and strikeouts, he’s well below average. Bregman’s combination of discipline, contact skills, and power with a mid-lineup role promises multiple avenues to DFS gold.
There’s never much to say about Trout. He’s the second-best hitter tonight, although he’s also the most expensive bat. It’s worth your while to pony up the cash as he’s very like to deliver a saucy performance against Covey and a bad White Sox bullpen at homer friendly Guaranteed Rate Field. He’s projected for a little better than one-third of a home run.
If you want to afford a smattering of the very expensive players listed above, you’re going to need a bargain basement player who doesn’t force you to sacrifice production. That’s Davis. He’s a low-angle, hard contact machine who managed to hammer 35 home runs in 541 minor league plate appearances this season. That’s quite an accomplishment for somebody with a near-50 percent ground ball rate. Davis is in luck tonight. He’ll face a fly ball pitcher at Dodgers Stadium. While the park isn’t known as a homer haven, it’s one of the best venues for a certain type of fly ball labelled a “high drive.” There’s around a one-in-four chance Davis will go deep tonight.