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Jrue Holiday
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Daily Games

NBA DFS Bargains: Monday

by Ryan Knaus

We have another nine-game night in the NBA this Monday, leaving plenty of DFS value to mined. From guys you almost must target to potential punt plays, we're here to break down the biggest values to be found. Let's start with a quick look at Vegas' expectations for tonight's slate:

 

Matchup

Over/Under

Spread

Magic at Wizards

222

Wizards -8.0

76ers at Heat

220.5

Heat -2.5

Pelicans at Raptors

231

Raptors -9.5

Mavericks at Bulls

212

Mavs -1.0

Jazz at Grizzlies

203

Jazz -3.5

Nets at Wolves

223

Wolves -2.5

Suns at Thunder

214

Thunder -8.5

Spurs at Kings

218

Spurs -2.5

Warriors at Clippers

228.5

Warriors -2.5

 

Bear in mind that injuries and lineups are subject to change at any moment! For the very latest news, stay tuned to Rotoworld’s injury report and player news pages!

 

We open with a look at tonight's options in DRAFT leagues!

 

DRAFT Bargains

Karl-Anthony Towns (DRAFT projection: 49.5) – There’s a wealth of options at center tonight but I’m eager to see what KAT can do in a post-Jimmy-Butler world. There should be virtually unlimited touches available and he draws a favorable matchup vs. the Nets, who have the eighth-worst Defensive Rating and are routinely torched by centers. In fact, they’re giving up 27.1 points to centers (second-highest in the league) along with a league-high 19.4 rebounds…this includes starters and the bench, of course. You can make a compelling case for Joel Embiid but I’m still going with Towns in my DRAFT lineups.

 

Jrue Holiday (DRAFT projection: 41.2) – The absence of Elfrid Payton (ankle) is expected to continue on Monday, which leaves Jrue running the offense in an expanded role. He’s dished at least eight assists in seven straight games and hasn’t fallen below 40 fantasy points since Oct. 27. He’s also cruised past his valuation tonight in four straight and the matchup here is solid – Toronto has a good defense but the pace is expected to be fast and furious (the 231 over/under is the highest tonight), so there will be plenty of possessions to go around. I’m eager to have him in my lineups.

 

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Julius Randle (DRAFT projection: 30.9) – Even if Nikola Mirotic plays tonight, which isn’t guaranteed, I like Randle’s odds of exceeding 30.9 in this up-tempo matchup. He’s a safe play for that reason, and because the upside is glaring with 45+ fantasy points in two of the past three games. I’ll be waiting on forwards in DRAFT leagues tonight because pairing Randle with Andrew Wiggins (DRAFT projection: 30.5) makes a lot of sense, and they can both be had in the later rounds. Just double-check Wiggins’ status closer to tip-off – he was a full participant in shootaround and sounds probable.

 

 

FanDuel / DraftKings Bargains

 

Dorian Finney-Smith (SF, $3,800 on both FanDuel & DraftKings) – Wesley Matthews’ absence with a strained hamstring leaves 30+ minutes available in the Mavs’ rotation, and DFS is a likely candidate to step up. He was cruising with reliable fantasy points in the 20-25 range prior to Harrison Barnes’ return, and coach Rick Carlisle trusts him, so minutes north of 30 wouldn’t be surprising. I may even go with both Finney-Smith and J.J. Barea (PG, $4,200 FanDuel / $4,000 DraftKings) in some leagues.

 

Quinn Cook (PG, $5,400 FanDuel / PG, $5,000 DraftKings) – His price has increased, but not enough to scare me away. Stephen Curry (groin) is listed ‘out’ for tonight’s game and Shaun Livingston (foot) is questionable, so there should be plenty of minutes and touches for Cook to hit 5x-6x value. The only concern is that his ownership will be sky-high after dropping 41.1 FP vs. the Nets on Saturday, so GPP owners looking to go against the grain may want to avoid him.

 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG, $5,000 FanDuel / PG, $4,200 DraftKings) – Similar to Quinn Cook, SGA is not cheap but I still don’t think his price has caught up to his role/production. Doc Rivers has given him the keys and he’s averaging 37.0 minutes over L.A.’s past two games, which is reason enough to target him. He won’t have to deal with Steph Curry (groin) and this should be another fast-paced matchup (over/under of 228.5 is second-highest). More possessions equals more value, especially for a guy like SGA who will have the ball in his hands a lot tonight.

 

Terrence Ross (SG, $4,600) – If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. Ross is cruising and the absence of Jonathan Isaac (ankle) has boosted his fantasy floor. He only needs 23 fantasy points to his 5x value and is averaging 30.3 over the past two games – it’s a small sample but the production stems from his score-first role, so it feels sustainable. The clincher is that he’ll face a Wizards team that can’t defend anyone, and it’s still unclear if Aaron Gordon (ankle) will be able to suit up.

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.