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Christian Wood
AP
Daily Games

NBA DFS Bargains Monday 1/13

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: January 13, 2020, 12:53 pm ET

It’s a solid seven-game evening in the NBA this Monday, and there’s plenty of DFS value to be mined. From guys you almost must target to potential punt plays, we're here to break down the biggest values. In this column, I’m talking primarily about players with salaries around $6,000 or cheaper. Let's start with a quick look at Vegas' expectations for today’s slate.

 

Matchups

Over/Under

Spread

Pelicans at Pistons

226

Pistons -2.0

Sixers at Pacers

213

Pacers -2.0

Bulls at Celtics

215.5

Celtics -10.0

Thunder at Wolves

219.5

Thunder -2.5

Magic at Kings

210

Kings -2.0

Hornets at Blazers

215.5

Blazers -9.5

Cavs at Lakers

221

Lakers -14

 

Remember that injuries and lineups are subject to change at any moment! For the very latest news, stay tuned to Rotoworld’s injury report and player news pages!

 

Point Guard

Lonzo Ball (Yahoo – $29 FanDuel – $6,300 DraftKings – $6,900)

Yes, Lonzo is priced above the typical threshold for bargains in this column. Nevertheless, he’s still priced too cheap for his actual value – he’s notched a minimum of 37.9 DFS points (FanDuel and Yahoo scoring) in six of the past seven games. Holiday is listed as questionable for Monday’s game, which is an upgrade from his previous ‘doubtful’ tag, and if he plays the ceiling will lower a bit for Ball. Nevertheless, he seems like a lock for 6x value in a favorable matchup vs. the Pistons. If you need more of a true punt play, Frank Jackson is worth a look. Jrue Holiday (arm) is doubtful for Monday’s game, and J.J. Redick (hamstring) is currently questionable. If both guys are out, there should be plenty of minutes for Jackson.

 

Editor's Note: Looking for an added edge? Dominate all season long with our NBA DFS Toolkit. Use our Lineup Optimizer to come up with winning lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo! Click here for more!

 

Shooting Guard

Bruce Brown (Yahoo – $18 FanDuel – $4,900 DraftKings – $6,100)

Brown is cheap enough to merit ownership in plenty of scenarios tonight. The exception is DraftKings, where his price has spiked to a season-high $6.1k. The Pistons have had the 7th-worst defense over their past 10 games, and they’re playing a New Orleans team tonight that has the 5th-worst defense in that span. Both teams play with pace, and there’s a reason this game has such a high over/under (226). Plenty of fantasy value will be up for grabs, and Brown is poised to claim a bunch of it in his versatile, big-minute role – he’s logged 34+ minutes in two straight games and continues to operate as a point guard. He’s averaging 11.3 points, 5.3 dimes, 4.2 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 0.5 blocks in January, and that feels like his floor vs. the Pelicans tonight.

 

Small Forward

T.J. Warren (Yahoo – $22 FanDuel – $5,100 DraftKings – $5,900)

The Pacers might finally get Malcolm Brogdon (flu) back on Monday, but that wouldn’t be a net negative for Warren – Brogdon has been excellent at setting up teammates for easy buckets all season. Warren costs substantially more than Justin Holiday, who has eroded some of his minutes recently, but he also packs far more offensive firepower (and therefore fantasy upside). The other side of this equation is that there aren’t many appealing SFs below the $5k threshold tonight. Miles Bridges is a solid alternative, but Jarrett Culver gets a tough matchup vs. OKC and both Trevor Ariza and Harrison Barnes could lose out with Marvin Bagley expected back tonight.

Power Forward

Christian Wood (Yahoo – $12 FanDuel – $4,700 DraftKings – $3,700)

Wood’s price has inexplicably dipped on DraftKings, and remains super affordable for Yahoo. I expected across-the-board increases after he erupted for 48.3 DFS points vs. the Bulls on Saturday, but it didn’t happen – take advantage of the oversight. Yes, Wood has had some major duds recently, particularly a pair of back-to-back games vs. the lowly Cavs in which he averaged 10.3 DFS points. Yuck. Still, the opportunity is glaring with Blake Griffin likely done for the season, and Saturday’s huge game should earn him extra minutes from coach Dwane Casey. I’m happy to roll the dice on Wood tonight, especially in a promising matchup vs. the Pelicans.

 

Center

Jaxson Hayes (Yahoo – $17 FanDuel – $4,300 DraftKings – $4,600)

Hayes’ price has risen a bit due to his hot stretch recently, but not enough to prevent sky-high ownership tonight. The prospect of Derrick Favors (hamstring) returning could scare off some owners, though, and Hayes has clearly earned 24+ minutes even if Favors does play. In the past three games, the rookie has averaged 36.3 DFS points per game with minutes in the mid-20s. The Pistons’ defense has been bad, as mentioned earlier, and Hayes’ recent play is too enticing to leave him off most lineups tonight, regardless of DFS format.

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.