Loading scores...
Tristan Thompson
AP
Daily Games

NBA DFS Bargains Monday 1/27

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: January 27, 2020, 12:18 pm ET

After a busy MLK day last week, we’re back with a typical six-game slate this Monday, but there’s still plenty of DFS value to be mined. From guys you almost must target to potential punt plays, we're here to break down the biggest values. In this column, I’m talking primarily about players with salaries around $6,000 or cheaper. Let's start with a quick look at Vegas' expectations for today’s slate.

 

Matchup

Over/Under

Spread

Cavs at Pistons

219

Pistons -6.5

Magic at Heat

211

Heat -5.5

Mavs at Thunder

225.5

Mavs -1.0

Spurs at Bulls

215.5

Spurs -2.0

Kings at Wolves

224.5

Wolves -3.0

Rockets at Jazz

225.5

Jazz -12.5

 

Remember that injuries and lineups are subject to change at any moment! For the very latest news, stay tuned to Rotoworld’s injury report and player news pages!

 

Point Guard

Derrick White (Yahoo – $16 FanDuel – $4,800 DraftKings – $5,000)

The Bulls aren’t a great matchup for guards in general, and the numbers over the past 10 games aren’t inspiring for opponents – against PGs, they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest assists, fifth-fewest points, and seventh-fewest steals. As ominous as those numbers are, I’m willing to put my faith in White’s renewed confidence and assertiveness as the leader of San Antonio’s second unit. He’s notched a minimum of 29.3 fantasy points (FD & Yahoo scoring) over the past five games, with minutes consistently in the mid-to-high 20s. Even if he just hits that low mark, he’d be at 6x value tonight. If he gets to his average during this five-game span (34.8), that would be 7x value. Good enough for me.

Editor's Note: Looking for an added edge? Dominate all season long with our NBA DFS Toolkit. Use our Lineup Optimizer to come up with winning lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo! Click here for more!

Also consider…Reggie Jackson. The downside is that Derrick Rose is probable for tonight’s game despite a sore knee, and I’m not exactly sold on R-Jax maintaining his ridiculous per-minute efficiency. He’s averaging 34.1 fantasy points in a mere 21.0 minutes in a tiny two-game sample since returning from a lengthy absence. Still, he’s cheap enough and should benefit from a terrific matchup vs. the Cavaliers.

Austin Rivers also deserves a look, as he’s coming in with a rock-bottom price and the Rockets will be without Russell Westbrook (rest) tonight. The matchup vs. Utah is brutal, though, so Rivers still comes with risk even at his prices.

 

Shooting Guard

Tyler Herro (Yahoo – $13 FanDuel – $4,300 DraftKings – $5,000)

Herro’s price has increased a bit, but not enough to scare me away if Miami is playing without some of their key G/Fs tonight. Jimmy Butler is dealing with a sore right ankle. Goran Dragic has a sore left calf. Kendrick Nunn has a sore left Achilles. Herro and the second unit took over Wednesday’s game, as he finished with 25 points and seven 3-pointers in an OT victory, and he started on Friday in the absence of Nunn. He played 40 minutes on Friday, the type of playing time that basically guarantees he’d hit value if Nunn and/or Butler sit tonight. I’m also considering Langston Galloway as an even cheaper punt option at SG. He’s hit 20+ fantasy points in five straight games and continues to get solid minutes whether or not Derrick Rose and Reggie Jackson are active. Plus, there’s that great matchup vs. the Cavs I mentioned above.

 

Small Forward

Danuel House (Yahoo – $11 FanDuel – $3,500 DraftKings – $3,900)

The most expensive small forward on FanDuel tonight, with 12 teams playing, is Danilo Gallinari at $6,200. It’s an indication of just how shallow the pool is tonight, so you’ll be saving money at SF by default. If you’re looking to go even lower than most owners, though, you have a few options beginning with Danuel House. The Rockets’ forward has shifted to a bench role but he’s carving out quiet value with a handful of points, boards and some defensive stats. It doesn’t take much to have value at this price-point – he’s averaging 23.4 fantasy points the past four games, even when you include an 8.3 dud on Wednesday. House is relatively safe but doesn’t offer a ton of upside, though, so tournament owners may want to pivot to Josh Okogie. He’s had some big games and some duds, but should fare well in a fast-paced, close game tonight.

Power Forward

Larry Nance (Yahoo – $13 FanDuel – $5,100 DraftKings – $5,400)

Christian Wood would be more enticing if Andre Drummond weren’t returning tonight, but as things stand, I’ll turn to Nance for upside in the low-mid range. Detroit’s frontcourt defense has been vulnerable all season long, and tonight will be no different. Nance is also running hot lately, and although recency bias plays a part, I’m sold by his past two games (32.2 and 40.9) and his steady numbers over the past five (at least 20.5). His left knee injury is finally behind him, and he’s playing like the guy we drafted in season-long leagues, who only needs 20-25 minutes to do major damage. The final point is that this is the first half of a back-to-back set. Kevin Love and/or Tristan Thompson may be rested for one of these matchups – if it’s tonight, Nance is almost must-start material. And if they aren’t rested, expect their minutes to reined in, so either way it’s a win for Nance.

Also consider…Thaddeus Young. He’s playing huge minutes by default right now, with Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr. and Daniel Gafford all sidelined.

 

Center

Tristan Thompson (Yahoo – $21 FanDuel – $5,700 DraftKings – $5,700)

I wish Thompson were a bit cheaper, but I’ll still take him at these price-points. The key is that Detroit has struggled to defend centers all season, and Thompson should get plenty of minutes tonight. This is the first game in a back-to-back set, with the second game coming vs. the Pelicans. If the Cavs opt to rest Thompson one of these games, or at least conserve his minutes, it makes sense to play him heavily vs. Andre Drummond and scale back tomorrow vs. a Pelicans team that starts Derrick Favors at center and has increasingly used Zion Williamson at the five in small lineups. In his most recent game vs. the Pistons on Jan. 9, Thompson scored 35 points with 14 rebounds, three assists, three blocks and one steal. So, there’s also that.

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.