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NBA DFS Bargains: Monday

by Ryan Knaus

We have a busy 11-game night in the NBA this Monday, leaving plenty of DFS value to mined. From guys you almost must target to potential punt plays, we're here to break down the biggest values to be found. Let's start with a quick look at Vegas' expectations for tonight's slate:

 

Matchup

Over/Under

Spread

Wizards at Pacers

Pistons at 76ers

Pelicans at Celtics

Kings at Bulls

Cavs at Bucks

Jazz at Thunder

Magic at Mavs

Grizzlies at Nuggets

Clippers at Suns

Wolves at Warriors

Heat at Lakers

 

217

221

227

227

220

218.5

211.5

198.5

221.5

229

221

Pacers -5.5

Sixers -8.5

Celtics -7.0

Kings -2.5

Bucks -13.5

Thunder -5.0

Mavs -4.0

Nuggets -2.0

Clippers -10.5

Warriors -10.0

Lakers -6.5

 

Keep in mind that injuries and lineups are subject to change at any moment! For the very latest news, stay tuned to Rotoworld’s injury report and player news pages!

 

We open with a look at tonight's bargains in DRAFT leagues!

 

DRAFT Bargains

 

Myles Turner (DRAFT projection: 33.7) – Myles Turner has really stepped up his game lately, getting more involved in screen plays and hitting the glass hard – he has double-digit rebounds in four of his past six games, after getting there once in his previous 20 games. The Wizards continue to be a fantastic target for fantasy players, giving up the fourth-most value of any team going tonight (behind only the Suns, Pelicans and Bulls). You won’t be taking him in 3-person or 6-person leagues, with only one center required, but for deeper DRAFT teams if I don’t get Joel Embiid I’ll happily wait on centers and snag Myles with my final pick.

 

 

Anthony Davis (DRAFT projection: 54.1) – AD is not the highest-valued player on the board tonight (that would be LeBron James) and that’s ludicrous. Yes, he’s questionable with a hip injury and until his status is determined this will be a dice roll. If he’s healthy, though, you walk away with what should be the highest DFS output of the evening. Giannis Antetokounmpo could smash the Cavaliers and LeBron gets a solid matchup vs. Miami, but Davis would be up against a Boston team missing Al Horford (knee, doubtful) and Aron Baynes (ankle). Deeper in the pool of forwards, I’m also into Montrezl Harrell (projected at 33.8), who has been in a mild slump but should break out in an ideal matchup vs. Phoenix.

 

 

Klay Thompson (DRAFT projection: 31.5) – To begin with, Klay has exceeded this projection in seven of the past nine games, including a 50.0 vs. the Bucks on Friday. The Warriors are well-rested after two off-days and this projects as the highest-scoring game of the night, with an over/under of 229 points. There’s some risk of a blowout but I’m not overly concerned about that, and Klay should easily surpass the modest 31.5 DFS points he’s being projected to get – I’d happily pass up guys like Buddy Hield and Ricky Rubio to secure him.

 

 

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FanDuel/DraftKings Bargains

 

Terry Rozier (PG, $4.1k FanDuel … PG/SG, $5.3k DraftKings) – Kyrie Irving is out tonight with a shoulder injury, which makes this a simple decision. Rozier is substantially costlier on DraftKings tonight but he’s a fantastic value for FanDuel, and will be a lock in nearly all of my lineups. He’s getting hot lately with averages of 13.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and just 1.0 turnovers in his past two games – that adds up to 34.5 fantasy points. In the only other game Kyrie missed this season, Rozier dropped 22 points, six rebounds and three assists in 36 minutes vs. the Jazz – and Utah is a stingy team for fantasy value, whereas tonight’s opponent (the Pelicans) are the second-best team both overall and specifically vs. point guards. You can’t ask for a better situation for Rozier, and at this price I wouldn’t be surprised if he has 75% ownership in tournaments.

 

Bam Adebayo (PF, $6.5k FanDuel … C, $5.8k Draft Kings) – This is a perfect spot for Adebayo with Hassan Whiteside out again for personal reasons, and a strong matchup vs. JaVale McGee and the Lakers. Adebayo’s price has increased significantly, of course, but he’s still a value after posting 35.6 and 43.0 fantasy points in Miami’s past two games. The Lakers are in the top-third for points allowed to opposing centers and Bam will be a popular DFS play for a reason.

 

Kelly Olynyk (PF, $5.5k FanDuel … PC/C, $5.3k Draft Kings) – I’m willing to stack both Bam and Olynyk at my PF spots tonight. They shared the court for the final 5:40 vs. the Suns recently, and logged over 12 minutes together during the second half vs. the Clippers on Saturday. Erik Spoelstra’s willingness to use them together is critical and it bumps up Olynyk’s floor significantly – he’s hit at least 27.2 fantasy points in five consecutive games. This looks like easy 5-6x value.

 

Tomas Satoransky (PG $4.3k FanDuel … PG/SG, $4.2k DraftKings) – Yet another injury-based promotion that results in a low-end player with outsized DFS potential. John Wall is out due to bone spurs in his left heel, so Satoransky and Austin Rivers should both get a nice bump in playing time. Satoransky has played significant PG for the Wizards and is the most obvious candidate to start, and at this price I can’t pass him up – it helps that he dropped 14/7/4 with defensive stats just two games ago, hitting 38.3 fantasy points. He doesn’t qualify as a ‘bargain’ at $8.7k on FanDuel, but I’m also taking huge shares of Bradley Beal as the usage king of D.C. tonight.

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.