NBA DFS Bargains: Thursday
Every NBA DFS lineup needs to draw from the bottom of the player well to balance those stars who spend through the DraftKings or FanDuel salary cap with such ease. Bargain players are ideally those with low salaries, but plenty of upside. Opportunity is often the key to success for our low-cost lineup fillers. Depending on the size of your DRAFT league, you may not need to dig into the Bargain Bin, but we’ll also highlight a couple guys whose projections seem lower than they should be—potential game changers that your opponents may overlook.
We’ve got three NBA games on tap for Thursday night DFS. Denver at home vs. Atlanta offers the highest point total (220.5), biggest blowout risk (Nuggets -12.5), and best fantasy matchups (for Nuggets players). All eyes will be on Golden State as they visit the Houston Rockets in another potentially high scoring, but close game. Draymond Green should return tonight, and the Rockets are healthy, making this a nice place to spend up. The Spurs at Clippers could offer some fireworks as well, given that both teams rank in the top four in 3P%. The sticking spot tonight is at center. Assuming Nikola Jokic and his mysterious x-ray are fine, as he claims, he and Clint Capela might split ownership 50/50.
Lou Williams – G – LA Clippers (DRAFT Projection 26.1)
Williams may have started the season slower than expected based on last year’s monster production but he has looked more and more like that version of himself lately. Averaging over 30 MPG and scoring at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last six, Williams already has been out-producing this projection for some time. Given a matchup with the Spurs, who have been a generous fantasy matchup for opposing two-guards, Williams is a nice late round G pick.
Miles Plumlee – C – Atlanta (DRAFT Projection 9.1)
Say you’re in a 3-person DRAFT, or god forbid, a 6-person DRAFT tonight. And you don’t have the first pick (which should be Jokic). If you have the second pick, you lock up Capela, but if you’re third, what do you do? Well in a 3-person, you obviously wait and take your center last and scoop up James Harden or Kevin Durant. When you get there, though, Plumlee is my pick for the third-highest scoring center tonight, assuming that Alex Len misses the game with his sprained ankle. That’s definitely something to keep an eye on as we approach 8:00 pm ET, but with Dewayne Dedmon already ruled out for personal reasons, Plumlee is basically it at C and the Hawks won’t have the luxury of going small vs. Jokic. The matchup with Jokic and the Nuggets isn’t an easy one, but opportunity should push Plumlee ahead of Marcin Gortat and Jacob Poeltl tonight. He’s also an affordable $3K punt allowing you to pay up for an additional start on FD or DK.
Monte Morris – PG – Denver (FD: $5200, DK: $4100)
Still cheap, still producing, still in this article. Filling the stat sheet with a little bit of everything, but consistently shooting well and providing valuable assists, Morris played 31 minutes in a close game with Houston Tuesday night. The risk of a blowout here bodes well for him to again see extended playing time in a premier guard matchup with the Hawks.
Juancho Hernangomez – SF – Denver (FD: $4100, DK: $3800)
Hernangomez has played 30 and 39 minutes in the last two games, but has been surprisingly unproductive, with an average of just 18 fantasy points. At this salary, it’s not awful, and those were more difficult matchups than he’ll see tonight (Milwaukee and Houston). Since the Nuggets are relatively thin at F right now, Hernangomez should see at least 30 minutes again tonight and hopefully take advantage for closer to 25 fantasy points.
Derrick White – PG – San Antonio (FD: $5900, DK: $4800)
White has claimed the Spurs starting PG spot, posting balanced stat lines totaling at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last three games. An added bonus is that with the Clippers change of starting point guard, White will largely avoid the tenacious defense of Patrick Beverley. I see White as a solid 4-5X value play tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – PG – LA (FD: $6000, DK: $5300)
Gilgeous-Alexander is a painfully-long-to-type name that you should be familiar with by now. His salary has steadily increased as he has taken advantage of every minute of playing time afforded him. Now the starting PG for the Clippers, Shai is playing 35 MPG and absolutely stuffing the stat sheet, averaging around 17 PPG, 5 RPB, 3 APG, 1.7 BPG, and 1 SPG in the last three games. He’s a great mid-range cash game play tonight based on his ability and the fact that the Clippers are 5-point home favorites in a game with a 218.5 point total.