Bargain Bin Week 15
Each week I search for the cheapest viable options for your DFS lineups at every position. The plays are geared toward cash games unless otherwise indicated and I do try to use a price ceiling of $7000/$6000 for QB, $6000/$5000 for RB/WR, and $5500/$4500 (FD/DK) for TE insomuch as possible.
Derek Carr (FD: $6800, DK: $5400)
I wish I trusted Carr more because the matchup with Cincinnati is the league’s best. Carr is coming off two very complete, value-exceeding games, including a surprising win over Pittsburgh and close loss to Kansas City at home. In fact, one of the reasons I hesitate is that Carr has been much better at home this season, averaging six more fantasy points per game in Oakland. He also boasts one of the best completion percentages in the league, a stat that isn’t affected by his home/road splits. Overall, he’s a value play in a great situation, and should exceed value at least one more time in Cincy as I give confidence and matchup more weight than road splits.
Jeff Driskel (FD: $6300, DK: $5100)
Picking on the same game, Oakland is also a bad defense and therefore a favorable QB matchup (seventh-most fantasy points allowed). The lack of a pass rush without Kahlil Mack is apparent – the Raiders have generated half as many sacks as the 31st ranked team in that category (only 11 all year). As he prepares to start his third game, I expect Driskel to be more comfortable with his role, which coincides nicely with the good matchup. Overall, he’s been somewhat conservative, but not making mistakes is worth something too. We haven’t seen him run a touchdown in a couple weeks, but he’s done it twice as a backup and that is another reason to keep an eye on him this week.
Josh Johnson (FD: $6500, DK: $4300)
Johnson surprised everyone by scoring more fantasy points than 27 other QBs in Week 14…in 20 minutes of actual football. Of course, circumstances were different than what he’ll see this week in Jacksonville, but still, a dual threat QB at this salary is worth noting. Besides, the Jaguars are playing for nothing at this point. Johnson will probably be more popular than he deserves, but another 15-20 fantasy point day is definitely possible, and he opens up a lot, especially on DK.
Kenneth Dixon (FD: $5700, DK: $3500)
Expected to be in the mix in the Baltimore backfield, Dixon has made some big plays in the last two weeks. The Ravens are enjoying a really nice stretch of matchups lately, and add Tampa Bay to the list. As a threat in the short passing and run game, Dixon should cut into Gus Edwards’ workload. It’s a fine strategy to use either of them in your tournament lineups, but neither is reliable enough for cash games.
Jeff Wilson (FD: $6100, DK: $4600)
Wilson should be in line for another big workload providing Matt Breida doesn’t play. Alfred Morris was shown to be a non-factor in Week 14. The 49ers are at home to the Seahawks so it’s not a great matchup, but Wilson was highly effective with his 24 touches in Week 14, nearly hitting 100 total yards. The volume alone makes him worth the price (preferred on DK with Cook so close in price on FD).
Jaylen Samuels (FD: $5500, DK: $5200)
Again, we’ll have to keep an eye on the injury news, but no reason to get fancier than these guys if they start. Samuels failed to score a touchdown but got a goal line carry, and was otherwise as expected – a valuable asset in the high-potency Steelers pass game. This game carries the highest total of the main slate, providing even more incentive to get a cheap piece of it.
Corey Davis (FD: $5800, DK: $5600)
So Davis isn’t an elite WR1, but he is a high upside option in an interesting spot. Johnson and Jamison Crowder just burned the Giants for a couple big plays in Week 14, and we’ve seen Marcus Mariota take his shots downfield to Davis. They often fail, but it’s his volatility that’s keeping his salary down. I like Davis and Mariota as a GPP mini-stack this weekend, especially if Eli Manning and the Giants play well again.
Trent Sherfield (FD: $4500, DK: $3400)
After seeing his snap counts rise in the past few weeks, Sherfield saw seven targets in Sunday’s ugly loss to Detroit. His 77 receiving yards were a season-high, until this week. Assuming a similar volume, Sherfield could exceed that number while facing a generous Falcons secondary, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. The lack of the Cardinals ability to score touchdowns favors all their players in a PPR format, but the matchup and price are good enough to use anywhere in this case.
Bills WR: Josh Allen isn’t in bargain range, but both Robert Fosterand Zay Jonesare pretty cheap ($5400/$5100 on FD, $4300/$4200 on DK) if you like the Bills at home this week. The game total is low, and they have Darius Slay to contend with, but Allen is getting them the ball. Jones has at least nine targets in three of his last four games, and Foster has two 100-yard receiving games in that span (and one 94-yard effort).
C.J. Uzomah (FD: $5000, DK: $3600)
While Boyd has largely disappointed with A.J. Green out, Uzomah has been pretty much as expected. He had one 12-target game, but is consistently returning only about 40 receiving yards on 3-6 catches per week. It’s not great, but this week he does get that fantastic matchup with the Raiders, most generous team in the league to TEs. If he scores, he’s a top 7-8 play with the way TE has been lately.
Blake Jarwin(FD: $4700, DK: $2700)
One of the deepest bargains that I kind of trust this weekend, Jarwin is coming off a break-out perfect 7-of-7 game in which he had 56 receiving yards. It was Dak Prescott’s monster effort that made it possible – 54 attempts and 455 passing yards – but Vegas expects the Cowboys to be in a position to throw the ball again this week (they are three-point underdogs to open the week) in what should be a high scoring game.
Chicago Bears (FD: $3700, DK: $2900)
When the best defense and fantasy defense is this cheap, I don’t go looking further. Yes, it’s Aaron Rodgers visiting Chicago, but the Bears aren’t afraid. I’m one who believes that his five-game turnover-free streak ends on Sunday. The Bears have 25 interceptions, 40 sacks, and nine fumble recoveries so far this season. They allow just 216 passing yards and 64 rushing yards per game at home. Thank you for the discount, DFS.