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NFL DFS Bargains Week 12

by Renee Miller

Bargain Bin Week 12

 

Each week I search for the cheapest viable options for your DFS lineups at every position. The plays are geared toward cash games unless otherwise indicated and I do try to use a price ceiling of $7000/$6000 for QB, $6000/$5000 for RB/WR, and $5500/$4500 (FD/DK) for TE insomuch as possible. 

 

Thanksgiving Slate 

 

My view of the Thursday slate points to saving at WR, so that’s what I’m highlighting here, rather than the traditional ‘value at every position’ format this article uses. For example, I really can’t recommend low-salaried Colt McCoy or Zach Zenner here. I think you need Drew Brees or possibly Matt Ryan (tournament) at QB for obvious reasons, and I don’t think Zenner is going to be the guy to crack the Bears run defense. With the Saints backs facing Atlanta (check out Adam Levitan’s running scoreboard of RBs vs. Atlanta on his Twitter feed) and Ezekiel Elliott’s high volume dual-threat role available on this small slate, you’ve got to save on pass catchers, not running back or quarterback.

 

 

T.J. Jones (FD: $4600, DK: $3500)

 

Jones did not step up in Week 11 as some expected, with Bruce Ellington (whom I featured here last week) garnering nine targets in the win over the Panthers. However, Ellington suffered a back injury during that game, and on the short week is considered questionable for the early Thursday game. It’s tough to face the Bears, but it’s much tougher to run on them than to pass on them. So if you’re rostering any Lions (I always make home team Thanksgiving day stacks of Dallas and Detroit in the small GPPs), Jones is one to add to a Matt Stafford/Kenny Golladay lineup. 

 

Taylor Gabriel (FD: $5100, DK: $3700)

 

Gabriel comes with a lot of volatility, and there is some uncertainty at the Chicago QB position with Mitchell Trubisky still questionable for tomorrow’s game. That said, I see the zero-catch game in Week 10 as the outlier, as Gabriel has been for the most part a reliable part of this receiving corps (averaging over 6 targets per game). That volume, plus the fact that the Lions lone good corner, Darius Slay, will likely be tailing Allen Robinson, makes Gabriel a solid bargain this week (if Trubisky plays; but still a risk/reward play if the offense is in Chase Daniel’s hands). 

 

Michael Gallup (FD: $4900, DK: $3500)

 

Gallup is a tournament only play, perhaps in the Dallas stack mentioned above if you’re corny like I am, given that he is missing some practice time this short week in the wake of his brother’s death. Gallup had his best game of the season against Washington a few weeks ago, and whether that was a fluke or a matchup mismatch remains to be seen. We do know that Washington is dealing with significant injuries on both sides of the ball and that Dak Prescott has been significantly better at home this season – fewer interceptions, more touchdowns, four more fantasy points per game at home vs. on the road. 

 

Trey Quinn (FD: $4800, DK: $3500)

 

As low as you can go, Quinn was targeted four times in the slot in Week 11, and caught all four for 49 yards. Washington is something of a disaster right now, and I expect McCoy to rely most heavily on Jordan Reed this Thursday, but Quinn might be the slot guy going forward as he clearly supplanted Maurice Harris there last week. Overall, I think the Redskins Offense will struggle, but at this salary, Quinn goes 4/60 and you’re happy. 

 

Sunday Main Slate 

 

Quarterback

 

Nick Mullens (FD: $6000, DK: $5400)

 

Mullens came back down to earth a little bit in his second NFL start against the Giants. He was the victim of two semi-unlucky interceptions, which is not to say that he was faultless in his decision making. Still, he kept his poise and nearly led his team to another victory. He gets a terrific matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the week’s highest point total game, which earns him the spot here. George Kittle is a high priority TE play on Sunday, as is a healthy Matt Breida at RB, but if Kendrick Bourne gets off the injury report, he or Dante Pettis could make for a cheap lineup filler this week. Both saw six targets in Week 10.

 

Running Back

 

Josh Adams (FD: $5700, DK: $3800)

 

No surprise here, with Adams still at this salary, especially the DK salary, Adams approaches must-play territory vs. the Giants. A factor in both the run and pass games, Adams appears to be the back the Eagles have been trying to cobble together with multiple players since losing Jay Ajayi. Given his effectiveness the past two weeks, I think he’s safe enough to use in any format. 

 

Gus Edwards (FD: $5300, DK: $4400)

 

Last week I wrote up Alex Collins, as the matchup with the Bengals and Lamar Jackson at QB set up nicely for running back production. Well, it certainly did, and Collins got his touchdown, but it was Edwards who ran away with the fantasy points. He rushed 17 times for 115 yards and a touchdown, seemingly out of nowhere. The Ravens are in an even better situation this week as they take on the Raiders at home. It’s the sixth-best RB matchup for fantasy, and while I’d expect both Jackson and Collins to get some chances on the ground, Edwards should be a big part of the mix after what he showed last Sunday. Unlike Adams, I don’t yet trust Edwards in cash games just because there are so many backs in Baltimore. 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Dontrelle Inman (FD: $5200, DK: $3900)

 

Inman has turned decidedly into Andrew Luck’s WR2. With a good catch rate (82 percent), he had his first touchdown from Luck last week. While the Titans robust defense was surprisingly no match for the Colts, this week we can anticipate some solid fantasy production. Vegas has this game at a point total over 50 with the Colts being 9.5-point home favorites. The volume and red zone opportunities at this price make Inman a strong GPP play.

 

D.J. Moore (FD: $5800, DK: $4600)

 

It’s the battle of the Moores this weekend, but I think David is going to cede even more of his looks to Doug Baldwin as the No. 1 WR in Seattle is finally fully healthy and ready for that late season burst he and Russell Wilson always seem to have. Back to D.J., he finally had a breakout game after being reasonably targeted in most games this season. Whether we’re chasing points or banking on the repeatability of the talent remains to be seen, but he clearly has the ceiling we want at this price in what should be a competitive and high scoring game.

 

Marcell Ateman (FD: $4800, DK: $3100)

 

He might be the only Raiders receiver standing come Sunday. It’s a terrible matchup with the Ravens, but for minimum salary, the opportunity should be there for him. 

 

Tight End

 

Cameron Brate(FD: $4400, DK: $3600)

 

Brate is a no-brainer bargain TE option. The main problem here is wanting to spend up on Kittle. If you are looking to save, Brate and Jameis Winston have a long-standing solid connection, and with O.J. Howard on IR, Brate gets the clear path to production. I’ve already touched on the quality matchup with the 49ers as well as the high point total (55). 

 

Defense

 

Buffalo Bills (FD: $4000, DK: $2700)

 

In the lowest point total game of the week (37.5), two of the worst offenses and best defenses in the league face off. Buffalo is the league worst matchup for QBs and WRs, while Jacksonville isn’t far behind. The price disparity between the two defensive units shouldn’t be as large as it is. While playing the defense against the Bills has been profitable this season, the same can be said for the Jaguars, who, as usual, rank high in the turnover department.