DFS Fades Week 11
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR3 on the Washington Redskins. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’twant to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So in Week 11, I’m fading…
Antonio Brown: Brown vs. Jalen Ramsey just isn’t worth the price. Other high priced receivers like Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins draw the short end of the matchup stick as well this week. I’d rather pay for Michael Thomas or come down a bit to Odell Beckham Jr. or Alshon Jeffrey. The Steelers are on the road, though that hasn’t impacted Brown or even Ben Roethlisberger as much as historically has been the case. A matchup with the Jaguars spells tournament only for Brown.
Adrian Peterson: Peterson is a neutral play this week; I include him here to highlight the fact that I want to spend up at RB this week. Any of the top five priced RBs are candidates to lead your lineups to the top of the standings. That’s who I want exposure to, not Peterson or some of the other mid-range backs, including Leonard Fournette, Marlon Mack, or even Joe Mixon.
Mike Evans:In my head I know it’s only a matter of time before Evans has the kind of spectacular fantasy day we know is still available to him, but in my heart I’m not using him this week. The Giants are somewhat of a Dr. Jeckyll/Mr. Hyde kind of team, but on the season they’re the fourth-stingiest in terms of fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Eric Ebron/Jack Doyle: Use neither or use both in different lineups. Last week it was actually Mo Alie-Cox who led the Colts tight ends in targets, though each had a red zone look and it was Ebron who scored twice. This is frustrating, because both are genuinely good players, but I think it might be worth paying for Zach Ertz or Greg Olsen at TE this week. Or saving with Jonnu Smith.
A.J. Green and John Ross:Green is about as likely to play this weekend as I am for the Bengals. Ross is questionable as well, but it sounds more like Cincinnati is trying to keep him in the best shape possible for Sunday. This matchup with Baltimore is a bad one to begin with and I have lowered my expectations for Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd.
Joe Flacco: Stopping just short of actually ruling Flacco out, the Ravens are talking about starting Lamar Jackson and allowing Robert Griffin III to work in here and there. This is potentially a disaster for John Brown, and to a lesser extent, Michael Crabtree, despite how I normally feel about Flacco (which is negative). The fact that RG3 is in the discussion tells me that Jackson isn’t ready to direct an offense for an entire game and that has to indicate that he’s not comfortable with his receivers and/or the routes they run. The bright spot here in a game that should be tough to watch is Alex Collins. He’s affordable, gets a plus on-paper matchup and should be thefocal point for the Ravens.
Chris Godwin:Godwin is trending up and I expect him to play. It didn’t work out well with Coach Koetter calling plays in Week 10, as Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 400-plus passing yards yielded just 3 points, so I’m curious what happens in a slightly better matchup with the Giants. Vegas has a high point total and narrow spread on this game, which bodes well for both sides. The issue with Godwin isn’t health; it’s his loss of target share, including the important red zone targets, to Adam Humphries over the last 3-4 weeks. Godwin’s a fade for me.
Keke Coutee: I’m in on Demaryius Thomas this week. I think Josh Norman will be a thorn in DeAndre Hopkins’ side all day, and Coutee may or may not end up playing, but Thomas has had two more weeks to get up to speed with his new team and is surely eager to contribute coming out of the bye week. Coutee is impossible to trust this week.
Tajae Sharp and Taywan Taylor: Both sound closer to doubtful, leaving the Titans very very thin at WR after Corey Davis. Expect Davis to be a popular play after last week, and I told you in the Bargains column how I felt about Jonnu Smith this week. It seems things are clicking for Marcus Mariota and the Titans right now, so get some exposure to the healthy skill players including Dion Lewis in what should be a good game in Indianapolis.
In Week 11, players with high expected ownership areDrew Brees and all the Saints skill players, Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffrey, Zach Ertz, Corey Davis, Odell Beckham Jr., Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Cardinals D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.