DFS Fades Week 9
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR3 on the Dallas Cowboys. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’twant to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So in Week 9, I’m fading…
Ben Roethlisberger: Even though the point total on this game is decent (47.5) it’s one of the lowest of the slate. Facing Baltimore is generally no fun for opposing QBs and this game puts Big Ben on the road. The Ravens lead the league in sacks (27). With so many good QB options, Ben is a multi-entry tournament play only.
Mitchell Trubisky:Ditto for the Buffalo Bills. The team is terrible on offense, which does give opponents advantages in time of possession, but the Bills allow the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, the sixth-fewest passing yards, have 21 sacks and 14 forced fumbles. I see the Bears D/ST and running backs as the best values for Week 9.
Defense not from Illinois: Forget it. I know I noted in my bargain article that Seattle and Kansas City were two that I could stomach, but I’m finding it hard to put that into action. The Bears are the safest and highest upside defense play for Sunday’s main slate.
I apologize that there aren’t more fades this week. I can’t argue against most of the WR and RB, even TE that you’re considering because I think offense is going to come through big time this week across the board. Literally everyone is a good play so go make 150 lineups! Or 10.
Melvin Gordon: Gordon looks promising for Sunday afternoon, although the game is in Seattle, which can be tough. He’s expensive, but he’s so much cheaper than Todd Gurley that I think if he’s healthy he’ll be a popular pivot. I’ll probably choose to spend less at RB this weekend, on guys like Christian McCaffrey, Kareem Hunt and Tarik Cohen.
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: Peterson will play – is off the injury report Friday afternoon – and I love this spot for him. Thompson is out, though to have the receiving back vs. Atlanta would have been an exciting DFS play. I’ll be using Peterson liberally.
Stefon Diggs: Diggs has been a tournament only play this season as Adam Thielen is just dominating the targets and yardage and touchdowns for the Vikings this season. Rib injuries are one I tend to avoid, because they can re-aggravate so easily. Despite missing practice again Friday, he has said he expects to play Sunday, but I think it’s too risky to consider Diggs when you can have guys like Emmanuel Sanders, Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, or even Marvin Jones Jr. for less.
Cooper Kupp: Kupp will play. He may have lower ownership at a lower salary than his teammates, making him a nice GPP play in this highest point total game.
Chris Carson: Carson is a guy to definitely use caution with. If he plays, I use him. If not, use Mike Davis. This should be a good spot for the lead Seattle back, as together, Carson and Davis have more rushing attempts than anyone except Todd Gurley. The Seahawks are committed to the run and the Chargers are a middling run defense. The price is definitely right on either one of them.
Allen Robinson: I’m avoiding Robinson this weekend, even if he does take the field. The Bears are capable of spreading the ball around to so many different players, and Buffalo is a decent pass defense. While I expect the Bears D/ST and run game (both Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard are viable) to be good, I don’t see a high passing volume game from Mitch Trubisky, which hurts all his receivers.
Keke Coutee:We should know his status by Saturday, but this isn’t a spot to love Coutee anyway. It’s a fairly low point total and the game is in Denver. The Broncos are in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed per game and though their corners aren’t what they used to be, it’s not a spot to use a hamstring risk. The addition of Demaryius Thomas should take some of the pressure off rushing Coutee back as well.
Dalvin Cook:There are too many conflicting reports on Cook for me to have much confidence in any of them. He’ll wait until he’s 100 percent and be a full go was the initial idea, but now we hear he’ll play 15-20 snaps and see how it goes. Detroit is a great RB matchup, as they give up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing backs (and the most rushing yards per game) so like a few others on this list, maybe throw him in a multi-entry tournament lineup but not more.
In Week 9, players with high expected ownership areCam Newton, Jared Goff, Christian McCaffrey, Courtland Sutton, Travis Kelce, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Bears D/ST.I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.