Here we go with the Single Game NFL DFS slate for Thursday Night Football of Week 5. Tonight’s matchup is between the Buccaneers and Bears with Tampa Bay listed as a 3.5 point road favorite with an over/under of 44.
We’ll highlight the top picks and best bargains to assemble a cash-inducing lineup. On top of that, the “additional notes” section will feature several tournament selections while adding context to the rest of this slate.
We will be producing these articles for Thursday and Monday primetime matchups every week, so be sure to bookmark the Rotoworld Daily page for those occasions - not to mention all the other fantastic daily fantasy content.
NOTES & SETUP
Ronald Jones II - Tampa Bay (DK: $7,400 / FD: $10,500)
As mentioned in the previous section, Jones seems to be in line for a hearty workload. That was the case with Leonard Fournette (doubtful for Thursday) sidelined last weekend, propelling Jones to 20-111 on the ground and 6-17 through the air (nine targets). That is bonafide RB1 volume that could spill into Thursday’s matchup at Chicago. While the matchup with the Bears doesn’t look great on paper, Jones has game flow on his side with Tampa listed as 3.5 point favorites. Keep in mind that Chicago allowed Adrian Peterson (14-93) and Atlanta RBs (23-138-2) to run the ball successfully. You could argue that Jones is a better fantasy back than Peterson, Todd Gurley, and Brian Hill.
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Rob Gronkowski - TE - Tampa Bay (DK: $5,800 / FD: $7,500)
Gronkowski disappointed last week while recording only one reception for 29 yards. However, we can expect a nice uptick in volume with fellow TE OJ Howard out. The absence of Chris Godwin and Justin Watson limits the Tampa passing tree as well, potentially filtering more targets to Gronk. The Bears have allowed a touchdown to opposing tight ends in each of their last two games, so maybe Gronkowski can reach paydirt for the first time in 2020. Either way, I like the prospect of increased targets for this conservative price tag.
Scotty Miller - WR - Tampa Bay (DK: $7,000 / FD: $8,000)
Miller is a better overall play on FanDuel, as it’s easy to blend that $8k salary into a solid lineup. As mentioned several times already, the Bucs are short at receiver with Godwin and Watson out. Miller helped pick up the slack last week with a solid 5-83-1 line on seven targets. He has posted 73+ yards in three of four games this season, and Miller is poised to see more volume with so many injuries to Tampa receivers.
Tom Brady (QB - TB) has the highest raw projection of any player heading into this single game slate. The veteran seems to be more comfortable as he gets more reps with his new team, translating to 24 and 33 fantasy points respectably over his last two outings. The matchup at Chicago isn’t great, but neither was his date with the Chargers last week. Brady excelled with 369-5-1 in that contest.
Mike Evans (WR - TB) has posted 100+ yards and a score in two of his last three games. I believe you can roster Jones, Brady, and Evans in the same lineup on both sites. There’s even room to run that back with Foles (on DK) and Robinson (on FD).
Cameron Brate (TE - TB) and Tyler Johnson (WR - TB) are two names to keep in mind for DraftKings. They are priced at $3,800 and $200 respectively over there. That is not a typo: Johnson is actually $200. He logged 25 snaps last week but didn’t record a catch. He’s a true roll of the dice, but that dirt-cheap salary will allow you to strike some terrific combinations on DK.
Nick Foles (QB - CHI) was fantastic off the bench in Week 3, but he had a tough time (249-1-1) against the Colts last Sunday. The Bucs have been good against the pass this season, but some of that comes down to facing below average QBs like Teddy Bridgewater and Jeff Driskel. Justin Herbert was able to find success vs. Tampa last week (290-3-1), and Foles should have game flow on his side. Allen Robinson (WR - CHI) salvaged his fantasy line in the second half last week, and his floor/ceiling combination should rise with Foles (not Trubisky) throwing him passes.
Darnell Mooney (WR - CHI) is questionable for the Bears. If he’s playing, I like him as a cheap play on FanDuel and DraftKings. He posted a 5-52 line against the Colts last week, but it’s interesting to note that he had nine targets. If Mooney is out, then Anthony Miller (WR - CHI) is the cheap Chicago WR to keep in mind.
Jimmy Graham (TE - CHI) is playable through all formats on FanDuel ($8k), but I’m more hesitant with his $6,800 tag on DraftKings. He’s definitely touchdown-dependant, but Graham does his best work in the red-zone, and the presence of Foles definitely helps his DFS upside.
I’m viewing David Montgomery (RB - CHI) as nothing more than a contrarian tournament play. The matchup isn’t great, and game flow doesn’t appear to be in his favor. However, Montgomery won’t have to worry about competing with Tarik Cohen (IR) for touches, creating appeal in GPPs. Stacking him with the Tampa passing game makes sense when placing multiple entries - hoping that Chicago can hold a lead into the second half.