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Phillip Lindsay
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Daily Games

Rankings vs DFS Pricing Plays

by Rich Hribar

As usual, the goal of this article is simple. At the end of the week, we’re taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. It’s as easy as that.

 

Jameis Winston – QB6

FanDuel: QB16 ($7,500)

 

The price of the Buccaneers quarterbacks seemingly has made this post more than any other player over the two seasons I’ve been putting it together. Winston played a clean game last week and was the QB8. The Tampa Bay quarterback has now been a top-10 fantasy scorer in 7-of-8 games they’ve played an entire game. I believe Winston does that for the rest of the season at this point. The Panthers have allowed a touchdown pass on 22.3 percent of possessions to the opposition, 30th in the league.

Kirk Cousins – QB11

DraftKings: QB18 ($5,500)

 

Cousins is crazy cheap over on DraftKings this week and I have idea why. As for solely a value angle, Cousins has had 17.5 or more points on DraftKings in 9-of-11 games this season. He’s also coming off 30.4 points in a prime time game. Cousins has now been a QB1 in three of his past four games while New England has allowed a QB1 in five of their past seven games with the only exceptions being Derek Anderson and Josh McCown.

 

Phillip Lindsay – RB10

FanDuel: RB15 ($7,000) DraftKings: RB21 ($5,400)

 

Lindsay has a rushing touchdown in four of his past five games and still has had 106 and 110 total yards since Royce Freeman has returned to the lineup, out-touching him 29-14 in those games. No running back has posted more yards per carry before first contact than Lindsay this season (3.2 yards). The Bengals have been a travesty defensively against opposing backs, ranking 31st in rushing points allowed (17.9) and 29th in receiving points allowed (14.3) per game while allowing an opposing running back to score in every game since Week 1 with multiple touchdowns to the position in five of their past six games.

 

Austin Ekeler – RB12

FanDuel: RB42 ($5,400) DraftKings: RB21 ($5,400)

Ekeler isn’t on the main slate, but he is a screaming value with Melvin Gordon sidelined this weekend. FanDuel didn’t even bother to alter his pricing top account for it. The last time that Gordon missed time, Ekeler handled 17-of-20 running back touches, it just happened to come in a game in which the Chargers ran a season-low 44 plays.  In the rushing game, the Steelers have gotten a bit vulnerable the past two weeks with Stephon Tuitt out of the lineup, allowing 127 rushing yards to Denver backs last week and 162 the week prior to the Jacksonville backfield. In the passing game, Chargers backs have a combined 101 targets this season, giving Ekeler a high floor at the very least for his cost through receiving work.

 

Josh Adams – RB18

FanDuel: RB29 ($6,800) DraftKings: RB30 ($4,700)

 

The other prime value at running back isn’t on the main slate, but with two backs underpriced on those ancillary slates, they become more appealing. Adams has received 40 percent, 38.9 percent, 66.7 percent and 75.9 percent of the backfield touches over the past four games and is coming of 23 touches a week ago. His 22 carries last week, match the most carries any back has gotten in a game for the Eagles under Doug Pederson. We’re getting him as a home favorite once again against a Washington defense that has allowed 119 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry to opposing backfields over their past four games.

 

Corey Davis – WR21

FanDuel: WR37 ($5,900) DraftKings: WR26 ($5,500)

 

We’ve been here before with Davis and been let down. Maybe he’s our new Jarvis Landry, but at least he’s shown some consistent upside recently. Over his past three games that Mariota has finished, Davis has been the WR26, WR5 and WR5. 66.9 percent of the receptions allowed by the Jets have gone to the wide receiver position, the highest rate in the league, so there’s reason to believe targets can find him here to potentially come through in a week in which he makes this column for the first time. 

 

Chris Godwin – WR34

FanDuel: WR50 ($5,400) DraftKings: WR67 ($3,900)

 

With DeSean Jackson inactive, Godwin is elevated in the Tampa Bay passing game. Jackson was averaging 29 pass routes and 6.2 targets per game with 16.3 percent of the targets from Jameis Winston, which was third on the team. In the three games that either Mike Evans or Jackson missed last year, Godwin had 25.1 percent of the Tampa Bay targets (28 total), turning them into 15 receptions for 277 yards and a touchdown while finishing as the WR35, WR21 and WR7 in scoring those weeks.

 

 

Courtland Sutton – WR35

FanDuel: WR48 ($5,400) DraftKings: WR57 ($4,200)

 

Another player we’ve played before to almost no results, we have Sutton as a WR3 play this weekend despite failing to catch more three passes in any game this season. It may never come together for Sutton this year, but this week he gets a much better draw than the tough games versus the Texans, Chargers and Steelers since the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas. Sutton runs 80 percent of his routes on the outside and the Bengals are a plus matchup all over the board, ranking 25th in points allowed to boundary wideouts.

 

 

Eric Ebron – TE5

FanDuel: TE12 ($5,600) DraftKings: TE8 ($4,200)

 

With Jack Doyle out for the season, Ebron is once again a top-5 option at the tight end position. Ebron averaged 5.2 receptions on 10 targets per game in the five games that Doyle was absent this season with a 22 percent share of the team targets. You’re not only getting a volume bump, but one that comes with scoring upside. Ebron leads the league with 11 touchdown receptions (including two versus the Jaguars with a rushing score in their game two weeks ago) while Colts tight ends lead the league in red zone targets (28), receptions (19) and receiving yards (159).

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.