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Alshon Jeffery
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Daily Games

Rankings vs DFS Pricing Plays

by Rich Hribar

As usual, the goal of this article is simple. At the end of the week, we’re taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. It’s as easy as that.

 

Deshaun Watson – QB5

FanDuel: QB10: ($8,000)

 

Watson has been finding some more passing volume here recently with the Texans pass defense getting exposed a bit. Watson has 32.3 pass attempts per game the past three weeks after a six game run of 25 or fewer attempts. He gets an Eagles Defense allowing a league-high 71 percent completion rate since their Week 9 bye and have allowed 314 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks over that stretch, 31st in the league. Mobile passers have also had their way with the Eagles as Cam Newton (25.7 FD points), Dak Prescott (21.7 and 26.4), Marcus Mariota (31.4) and Blake Bortles (19.7) found fantasy success against this defense.

Matt Ryan – QB6

DraftKings: QB11 ($6,100)

 

His fantasy production has been a tick worse on the road because of the lack of touchdowns, but his yardage per game (309.2 yards) on the road is just fine. Ryan also has a strong track record of finding value on DraftKings versus the Falcons. Over his past six games versus Carolina, Ryan has scored 31.7, 21.1, 22.4, 19.9, 39.5 and 18.3 fantasy points on DraftKings.

 

Marlon Mack – RB11

FanDuel: RB16 ($7,000) DraftKings: RB20 ($5,500)

 

Prior to last week’s dismantling of Dallas, Mack had been a clear matchup or hold play with huge games against the Bills (159 yards), Raiders (149 yards) and Dolphins (96). He’s getting another one of those matchups in neon lights as a huge home favorite against a Giants Defense that is allowing 152.7 yards from scrimmage per game (25th) with 18 touchdowns allowed (27th) to opposing backs. The Giants have allowed a rushing touchdown in nine straight games, the longest streak in the league. It’s their longest such streak as a franchise in the same season since 1967.

 

Tevin Coleman – RB21

FanDuel: RB27 ($6,400) DraftKings: RB28 ($4,800)

With Ito Smith on the shelf, Coleman will only concede touches to Brian Hill and the ghost of Jeremy Langford. Carolina is sixth in rushing yardage allowed per game (79.9 yards) to backfields, but Coleman did tally 20 touches for 125 yards against them earlier in the season. With his pass catching ability and limited contention for touches, Coleman is lower than his projected median output with the upside for a lot more.

 

Alshon Jeffery – WR16

FanDuel: WR26 ($6,300) DraftKings: WR26 ($5,300)

 

Jeffery has come back to life, catching 14-of-17 targets the past two weeks and seeing over 25 percent of the team targets in back-to-back games since Week 6-7. Houston has struggled more with speed wideouts and giving up vertical targets, but Jeffery is the player running those routes for the Eagles, leading the team with 20 targets on throws 15-plus yards downfield since returning to the lineup. Jeffery also has a connection going with Nick Foles. Over his past four games played with Foles, Jeffery has lines of 8-160, 3-73-1, 5-85-2 and 4-61.

 

Robby Anderson- WR21

FanDuel: WR33 ($5,900) DraftKings: WR43 ($4,500)

 

Anderson has had 26.9 percent of the team targets over the past three games. Over that span, he’s had at least seven targets in each game, catching a total of 15-of-25 targets for 220 yards and two touchdowns. He’s cheap, carries target potential and scoring upside as the Packers have allowed the most receiving touchdowns (10) to opposing lead wideouts on the season.

 

Dante Pettis – WR25

FanDuel: WR44 ($5,400) DraftKings: WR50 ($4,300)

 

Pettis keeps making this post since his price is hardly moving at all. Even in a tougher matchup against the Bears Defense, there’s still value to squeeze from his cost given his end of season opportunity isn’t going away. Pettis has been a top-24 scoring wideout in each of the past four games while catching 21-of-32 targets for 350 yards and four touchdowns over Nick Mullens’ six starts. The Bears don’t give up many passing scores, but they are middle of the pack in receptions allowed per game (5.1) to opposing lead wideouts (17th).

 

Austin Hooper – TE9

FanDuel: TE16 ($5,300) DraftKings: TE13 ($3,700)

 

We like the value of the Falcons Offense apparently. Hooper was able to play through a knee and ankle injuries last week, but only played a season-low 50.7 percent of the snaps. That makes him a low floor option as he’s already been limited in practice again this week, but he carries some upside for stacking purposes with Ryan if he’s able to play.  The matchup is good as Carolina is 28th in receptions allowed to opposing tights and tied for allowing the most touchdowns to the position, including a 5-59-1 game to Hooper this season.

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.