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Rankings vs DFS Pricing: Week 11

by Rich Hribar
Updated On: November 17, 2018, 6:40 pm ET

As usual, the goal of this article is simple. At the end of the week, we’re taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. It’s as easy as that.

 

Carson Wentz – QB6

FanDuel: QB13 ($7,700)

 

Wentz made this column a week ago and he delivered a QB7 scoring line on FanDuel for the week with 22.1 fantasy points on Sunday Night. Wentz has now been the QB4 in FanDuel points per game since Week 4 and has posted over 20 points in five of six games over that span. Even in the Saints defensive turnaround and strong performance that was surely aided by a limping Bengals Offense a week ago, the Saints allowed Joe Flacco (19.6 points), Kirk Cousins (20.7) and Jared Goff (29.3) to all outperform their salary leading into last week. Wentz is also an underpriced option attached to the highest game total (56 points) on the main slate.

 

Dak Prescott – QB14

DraftKings: QB20 ($5,200)

 

We don’t have Prescott quite as QB1 in rans, but he’s still a potential given his bottom-rung pricing on DraftKings. Prescott has over 21.7 points in three of the past four weeks and has thrown for over 240 yards in three straight games for the first time since rookie season. The Falcons are 30th in passing points allowed per game (19.8) to passers and 28th in touchdown rate (6.1 percent) allowed. They have allowed over 20 points to seven of the nine quarterbacks they’ve faced and have allowed the fourth-most rushing points (3.5 per game) to quarterbacks this season.

 

Dion Lewis – RB15

FanDuel: RB27 ($5,900) DraftKings: RB23 ($4,800)

 

Lewis was in this post a week ago and didn’t live up to expectations, but it’s a good spot to go back to him since his workload remained as the lead back in the Tennessee offense. Despite a wire-to-wire win, Lewis out-touched Derrick Henry 22-11 and has now out-touched him 64-33 over the past three games. The Colts rank 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (92.1) to running backs and allow 7.9 receptions per game to opposing backfields, 31st in the league. Lewis is still a much better option on DraftKings given having a higher floor there but can be played on both sites if you need a salary-saving running back.

 

Alex Collins – RB18

FanDuel: RB26 ($6,000) DraftKings: RB31 ($4,400)

 

Collins is your upside play for chasing touchdown potential in a great matchup this weekend. 41.7 percent of Collins’ fantasy output has stemmed from touchdowns, the highest rate in the league. We don’t always want to chase touchdowns only, but his odds of finding the paint here are high. The Bengals are allowing 176.6 total yards per game to opposing backfields (31st) and have allowed a running back to score a touchdown in eight straight games. Even worse, they’ve allowed 10 touchdowns to running backs over their past five games. Collins also should get a boost with either running quarterback playing in place of Joe Flacco this weekend as those options will occupy a defender and allow for more option-based run designs.

 

Corey Davis – WR15

FanDuel: WR31 ($6,200) DraftKings: WR25 ($5,600)

 

Now that Marcus Mariota has gotten healthy and the schedule has lightened up, Davis is starting to make all of his volume count towards generating tangible fantasy production. Davis has 10 targets in each of his past two games and is now second in the league in team target share on the season (21 percent) behind only DeAndre Hopkins. He’s turned that volume into 6-56-0 and 7-125-1 lines over the past two games. Against a Colts Defense that is allowing a 72 percent completion rate (31st), Davis should be able to turn his volume into efficient production once again to give him a safe floor.

 

Kenny Golladay – WR17

FanDuel: WR27 ($6,400) DraftKings: WR22 ($5,800)

 

Here we are again. I don’t think any player has made this post more this season than Golladay. But with Golden Tate now traded and Marvin Jones injured, the Lions have all but no choice but to run their passing game through Golladay on Sunday. After Jones exited the game last week, Golladay received 9-of-25 targets (36 percent), which he turned into four catches for 38 yards and a touchdown. The efficiency may remain scattershot, but you’re paying for the volume at this cost and Golladay should push double-digit targets as home underdog.

 

Amari Cooper – WR19

FanDuel: WR24 ($6,600) DraftKings: WR28 ($5,400)

 

It’s only been two games, but if the first two are an indication of what is to follow, Cooper may have found some fantasy stability through his move to Dallas. Cooper has 25 percent and 27.8 percent of the team targets in his first two games with the Cowboys. It's the first he's had back-to-back games with 25 percent of his team targets since Weeks 8-9 of 2016. He’s turned those targets into respectable 5-58-1 and 6-75-0 lines, giving him a solid floor. He’s a better option on DraftKings where he and Corey Davis are flip-flopped in pricing, but we have him undervalued on each site.

 

Jack Doyle – TE4

FanDuel: TE17 ($5,400)

 

It’s a tough week at tight end if you’re not playing Zach Ertz on the main slate, but we like Doyle a lot more than FanDuel does. He’s coming off a three catch, 36 yard dud at home, but once again dominated the Colts’ tight ends in opportunities.  Doyle ran 21 pass routes to 12 for Eric Ebron and has now run 122 pass routes to 56 for Ebron in the games they have played together. Ebron no doubt is the touchdown thorn in Doyle’s side, but there is still enough passing volume for the Colts to have Doyle in play as a top-12 option and Doyle himself still has scoring upside as Colts tight ends now have been targeted 24 times in the red zone, the most in the league.

Rich Hribar
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.