When setting your weekly NFL DFS lineups, it can be just as helpful to have an idea of whom you DON’T want to include as whom you do. Every Friday we’ll highlight a few players that you might want to fade. When a player appears here, it mainly refers to fading him in cash games. If you play in a lot of large field, multi-entry tournaments, you might consider just being underweight on these players relative to the field rather than not using them at all.
Players I’m fading for Week 16 include:
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
I get at least one guy wrong in this column every week, so fair warning, if I had to guess, I’d guess I’m wrong on Roethlisberger this weekend. So I’ll probably have to roster him in a GPP now, but overall, I’m truly not excited for his prospects this week. Both of these defenses have maintained a strong “avoid” presence this season, with the Colts allowing the eighth-fewest overall fantasy points to opponents. More than just the low over/under and formidable defense, is that Big Ben just hasn’t looked like the early season version of himself. He is clearly aware of his recent shortcomings, but like so many things, often awareness isn’t enough to overcome them. There are too many QBs in great spots, who are playing great football to mess around with Big Ben in anything but a high risk/reward GPP lineup.
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
None of the Seahawks are in for an easy ride this week vs. the Rams, in a divisional showdown that really matters for both teams, but Carson might get the worst of it. Not only do the Rams allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game, they allow have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. To make matters worse, Seattle has been generous with Carlos Hyde. This plan keeps both backs ‘fresh’, but leads to outcomes like what we saw in Week 15, with Hyde scoring a breakaway touchdown on limited work. Don’t get me wrong; Carson is still the lead back, but the gap may be narrowing and this week, in this matchup, I’m focusing my DFS attention on the pass game if at all.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
I have nothing really against Moore, or teammates Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel, they just aren’t making their way into my lineups. This game profiles as a low-scoring slog, with the Washington Defense being especially tough on opposing receivers (second-fewest fantasy points allowed this season). Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t thrown a TD pass in the last two games, instead saving his fantasy value with a rushing TD in each. Moore’s FanDuel salary especially is just too close to Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks for me to click his name.
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers
Allen is on the injury report. That doesn’t mean he won’t progress as the week goes on, but as you’re making early drafts of Sunday lineups, pencil Allen out. The Chargers have no real reason to push him to play, as they are ruled out of the post-season. Furthermore, this home game against Denver should be an easy win for them (should being the key word, nothing has been easy for this team) and both Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson have proven themselves capable receiving threats, not to mention Austin Ekeler and Hunter Henry. Basically, they don’t need Allen to succeed here, insomuch as success even matters. Don’t pay up for Allen.
Wayne Gallman, Jr., New York Giants
Gallman gets a double ding from me this week. For one, playing the Ravens is not going to be a walk in the park for him or any of his struggling teammates. The other reason is, inexplicably, Alfred Morris. Morris has cut significantly into Gallman’s bell-cow workload since Week 13, and though nothing about this team looks particularly good, it’s not clear that this shouldn’t be a time share. Gallman’s main value in DFS was his heavy and solo workload. Now that it’s gone, he’s unrosterable for me.
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I know, anyone playing the hapless Bengals is usable, right? But Ryan Finley just beat the Steelers, and the Houston D/ST is not even in their league. I do pay attention to Vegas lines, but it can’t be the only thing to pay attention to. Even though the Bengals have given up a lot of sacks this season, that is not a strength for Houston. Even though the Bengals haven’t scored a lot of points this season, Houston allows a ton of points per game. The quality of the defense matters as much as the quality of the opposing offense, and there are better plays than Houston this week.
Players I like, but who are expected to have high ownership in Week 16 include: Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Ravens D/ST. You might consider deviating away from this player pool and pivoting in large GPPs if you’re after a more unique lineup.