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Daily Forecast: Blue Jay Way

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

I was going to pick on the Rangers pitchers again in this one, but that would be three days in a row. I do like the Detroit hitters again tonight, but I’m going to go to Toronto for my fantasy points in today’s column. We get two pitchers who have been struggling in Scott Carroll and J.A. Happ. Carroll has been in the bullpen since being demoted for his poor starts and Happ has just been poor. Both bullpens also have a 1.40+ WHIP to help add to the blow up potential.

 

Happ is giving up a .364 wOBA to righties and a .389 to lefties while Carroll is allowing a .359 wOBA to righties and .382 to lefties. The Blue Jays usually hit better against righties with a team .341 wOBA against them and they also hit better at home with a team .347 wOBA. I’ll be leaning toward Toronto hitters in this one, but the Sox have some bats worth considering as well.

 

I’ll be focusing on the late game slate for tonight.

 

 

 

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TOP SHELF

 

Victor Martinez – DET – This guy is just unstoppable right now, while Martinez has been awful at home with a 6.38 ERA and a 2.45 HR/9.  Lefties have also been rocking him for a .321 average and 1.71 HR/9 this year.

 

Edwin Encarnacion – TOR – E.E.’s numbers have been the best when facing righties and at home this season.  In 106 at bats against righties at home he is averaging .321 with a .480 wOBA. He gets that exact matchup against a poor pitcher tonight.

 

Jose Abreu – CWS – Abreu is cranking home runs with impunity this year and J.A. Happ has been giving up home runs at an alarming rate of 2.03 HR/9 at home. The chances of Abreu going yard in this one are exactly 78.45% give or take.

 

 

Also consider: Ian Kinsler – DET, Todd Frazier – CIN, Ryan Braun – MIL, Devin Mesoraco – CIN, Andrew McCutchen – PIT, Jonathan Lucroy – MIL

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Aramis Ramirez – MIL – Ramirez took Christian Friedrich deep in Colorado last week and has been hitting lefties hard for much of his career. This season he has only had 43 at bats against lefties, but has hit five homers off them. He should get his chances against Friedrich tonight.

 

Jose Reyes – TOR – Reyes is heating up a bit and will be the catalyst from the top of the order tonight. He is hitting righties better than lefties and Carroll is giving up a .308 average and .873 OPS to lefties.

 

J.D. Martinez – DET – I was negligent yesterday in not mentioning Martinez even though I was stacking against Saunders. He’s insanely hot right now with six homers in his last nine games and a 14 game hitting streak. Nick Martinez should barely be a speed bump today.

 

Also consider: Khris Davis – MIL, Matt Adams – STL, Adam Lind – TOR, Lucas Duda – NYM, Juan Francisco – TOR, Pablo Sandoval – SFG, Gregory Polanco - PIT

 

 

 

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Skip Schumaker – CIN – Skip is as cheap as you can get and got the start for Brandon Phillips in the two-hole yesterday. If he gets another start in that prime spot against a scuffling Vogelsong, he should be a decent punt play.

 

Dioner Navarro – TOR – Navarro is best against righties and is eight for his last 18 with 2 doubles, 1 home run and 6 RBIs. As long as he gets the start he makes for a high upside catcher at a low price.

 

Jayson Werth – WAS – His price has hit an all time low and that means he hasn’t been hitting well and that he’s at value for such a good hitter, especially against a lefty, which is where he thrives. This season he is hitting .350 against lefties and Travis Wood is giving up a .284 average against righties. For his price he’ll be hard to skip.

 

Also consider: Josh Harrison – PIT, Ryan Zimmerman – WAS, Dayan Viciedo – CWS, Adam Eaton – CWS

 

 


 

STARTING PITCHER

 

Cole Hamels – PHI – Hamels hasn’t given up over two earned runs in each of his last five games and totaled just three earned runs allowed during that stretch. He’s striking out over a batter an inning and the Marlins are hitting a pitiful .298 wOBA on the road. Hamels is my top play tonight. 

 

Doug Fister – WAS – Fister goes into the hitter friendly Wrigley Field, but the weather looks like it will help out with a northeast breeze off the lake and a high in the 60s. The Cubs have had trouble against righties this season, hitting just a .286 wOBA off them as a team. Fister has been tough this year and Travis Wood has been hit by righties well, while the Nationals do their best work against lefties.

 

Vance Worley – PIT – Worley has had two starts this season, both on the road. He's pitched well, but he gets to take the Mets at home in this one who are hitting just a .295 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. The Pirates should be able to get to Dice-K and a win looks to be probable.

 

Also consider: Adam Wainwright – STL, Wily Peralta – MIL