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Daily

Daily Forecast: Brew Crew

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

 

One game stands alone this afternoon, so nobody in the daily fantasy world will be betting upon the Padres or the Mariners today. You didn't want to gamble on that game anyway. As for the night contests, isolated storms could affect the Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh). Keep an eye on it.

 

One stack raises its mighty head above the rest; it's an old story told anew. The Milwaukee Brewers sailed into Phoenix's Sky Harbor Airport yesterday to challenge the Diamondbacks. Today, they'll face left-handed starter Wade Miley. He's a mid-tier pitcher with a bit of a home run problem. The ball flies in the desert, even when the roof is closed, so Milwaukee's gang of lefty bashers should do well. Stop me if you've heard this before - Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, and Jonathan Lucroy are among the best hitters in baseball against southpaws. The rest of the lineup doesn't exactly slack either.

 

 

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $40,000 Fantasy Baseball league for Tuesday night's MLB games. It's $25 to join and first prize is $6,000. Starts at 7:05pm ET on Tuesday. Here's the FanDuel link.

 

 

TOP SHELF

 

Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy - MIL: We covered this in the intro, but let's make it clear - this trio is gold. All three offer big power, average, and on base skills against left-handed pitchers. Any and all could post a two home run night. The last time they stacked up so nicely, rain got in the way. 

 

Nelson Cruz - BAL: It's not often we seek out offense at sunless Tropicana Field. The park is not among the friendliest for hitters, especially those who thrive on home runs. A betting man should not expect Cruz to maintain the 50 home run pace he's set this season. Said betting man could expect a good outcome against southpaw Erik Bedard. Cruz has hammered lefties throughout his career. This season, he's posted a silly .418/.522/.745 line against opposite-handed foes.

 

Josh Hamilton - LAA: Dwelling just north of the border between the top shelf and bulk purchase is Mr. Hamilton. Since returning two weeks ago, Hamilton has hit reasonably well with a .300/.352/.420 line. A start at Progressive Field against righty Josh Tomlin could be just what the doctor ordered for Hamilton's power. Cleveland's stadium is only friendly to left-handed power hitters.

 

Also Consider: Adrian Beltre - TEX, Brian Dozier - MIN, Michael Brantley - CLE

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Buster Posey - SFG: The Giants usually play at the worst stadium for offense in all of baseball. Today they play at one of the best - U.S. Cellular Field. Between AT&T Park and The Cell, there is a 46 percent difference in right-handed power. Put another way, Posey is expected to hit 46 percent more home runs in Chicago than he would in San Francisco. What's more, Posey shall enjoy the platoon advantage against John Danks. Of course, there's a chance Posey will sit out after getting clipped in the head the other day. If he is on the bench, Hector Sanchez becomes a good bargain bin play.

 

Joey Votto - CIN: About a week ago, I vowed to continue including Votto in this column until his price returned to normal. A prominent projection system called ZiPS expects Votto to be the fifth best hitter in baseball over the rest of the year - sandwiched between some guys named Bautista and Stanton. Of course, the system loves Votto's on base skills, which are less beneficial in DFS. A start at pitcher friendly PNC Park isn't ideal. However, Pirates starter Brandon Cumpton makes for a nice target. 

 

Jason Kipnis - CLE: His pricing is quickly creeping up across most platforms, but he's still relatively affordable. Matt Shoemaker's lone problem as an Angels starter has been home runs. As we discussed with Hamilton, lefties can hit quite a few bombs at Progressive Field. Kipnis often bats fourth for the Indians, so he'll have a chance at a big night. 

 

Also Consider: Mike Morse - SFG, Jayson Werth - WAS, Jonathan Singleton - HOU

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Hunter Pence - SFG: Hmm, weird one here. I wanted to include Pence in the "also" section of the top shelf. So I searched him on one particularly major platform, only to find him at one of the lowest prices offered. If you play said major platform (occasionally advertised in this very column), then he's a must start today. He's trailed off slightly from his 2013 season, which is to say he's merely a top 100 hitter in baseball. If you play on other platforms, you'll probably find a more reasonable price - you can still consider him at U.S. Cellular Field against Danks.

 

Andrelton Simmons - ATL: Somewhere within Simmons, a better hitter is hiding. There's very little reason he can't hit .280 with 15 to 20 home run power - kind of like a Shane Victorino with fewer stolen bases. His on base percentage will always be lousy, but this is the bargain bin after all. Kyle Kendrick isn't an exciting matchup or anything, but he isn't a bad one either.

 

Adam Eaton - CWS: Matt Cain is fine, but he's hardly the stud he used to be. Given his declining strikeout rate, he's walking too many hitters this season. He's also seen his home run rate increase for four straight seasons, which doesn't bode well for a visit to U.S. Cellular Field. Eaton hasn't been the best leadoff hitter in baseball. Considering how rarely he swings and misses, he strikes out an awful lot. A little more aggression might serve him well. Put the two together, and you have a tempting bargain option.

 

Also Consider: Kole Calhoun - LAA, J.J. Hardy - BAL, Jean Segura - MIL

 

STARTING PITCHER

 

Johnny Cueto - CIN: Technically, Cueto isn't as talented as Yu Darvish or Masahiro Tanaka. However, he has a better matchup, friendlier stadium, and slightly cheaper price than the princes of the day. Plenty of ground balls and strikeouts along with few walks make Cueto a pretty safe play against a mediocre Pittsburgh lineup.

 

Michael Wacha - STL: In a world where promising young pitchers are too frequently sacrificed to gods named Andrews and Yocum, we must have heroes to pin our hopes upon. I promise you, if Wacha remains healthy, we have not seen the best of him. Busch Stadium is a good place for a pitcher to call home and the New York Mets make for a temptingly exploitable opponent. The Mets are among the worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitchers and Wacha is pretty darned good too. When he's at his best, he can be extremely efficient. If anything, he can get a bit too predictable in his strike throwing late in games. 

 

Josh Tomlin - CLE: If you want a pitcher on the cheap, you have two choices today. The other is below and has to somehow beat Tanaka. Tomlin at least has a fighting chance at a win against Shoemaker and the Angels. Unfortunately, he'll need to fight his way through a very difficult lineup. Tomlin is a fly ball pitcher who survives by limiting walks. Nobody would call him a top pick today, but he also costs about 40 percent of Darvish, so he may be a relative bargain. Watch out for those left-handed hitters mentioned above.

 

Also Consider - Max Scherzer - DET, Jeff Samardzija - CHC, Marcus Stroman - TOR

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.