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Daily Forecast: Buy Brantley

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

I’ll be focusing on the late slate in today’s forecast. That unfortunately leaves out our man Jon Lester and the two early games. I try not to play all day games so I can make sure my later players make it into the lineups.


I like four games to produce good fantasy value, Texas at Cleveland, Minnesota at Chicago White Sox, Colorado at Detroit and Pittsburgh at Arizona. But I’m going to lean on the game in Cleveland where T.J. House faces Miles Mikolas. Mikolas is just a body to throw out there at this point. He’s only thrown 26 innings this season, but has given up 25 earned runs while House has been better, but holds a 4.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. And both teams hit the opposing pitcher’s handedness well, with Cleveland hitting righties for a .331 wOBA and Texas hitting lefties for a .330 wOBA.


Michael Brantley  - CLE – Brantley is hitting a .411 wOBA against righties this season and a .423 wOBA at home.  This game should be another high scoring affair like last night and Brantley is always a good play against righties.


Jose Abreu – CHI – You can’t get much hotter than Abreu right now. He’s now hit safely in 21 straight games and is 15 for his last 26 with four doubles and two homers. He is hitting a .415 wOBA off righties and Yohan Pino has a 6+ ERA on the road.


Adrian Beltre – TEX – Beltre has four multi-hit games in his last seven and faces a weak lefty in House.  He’s hitting a .395 wOBA against lefties this season and House is giving up a .397 wOBA against righties.


Also consider: Carlos Santana – CLE, Adam Jones – BAL, Victor Martinez – DET, David Ortiz - BOS






Josh Harrison – PIT – Harrison is hitting the ball as well as anyone right now. He has four homers in his last six games, all on the road. Last night in Arizona he had a triple and a double and hits lefties and righties about the same and Chase Anderson has been worse at home this year giving up a .360 wOBA to righties.


Lucas Duda – NYM – Jake Peavy is giving up a .366 wOBA to lefties this season and Duda has been on fire with six homers in his last ten and a .405 wOBA against righties.


Yan Gomes – CLE - Gomes has been hot since returning from the All-Star Break. He’s hitting .396 with two homers and seven doubles since then and Mikolas makes for a nice matchup to keep those numbers rising.


Also consider: Robinson Cano –SEA, Mark Teixeira – NYY, Ian Kinsler – DET, Kyle Seager – SEA, Billy Hamilton – CIN





David Murphy – CLE - Murphy has been hitting well of late, especially for his price. He has 13 hits in his last 28 at bats and gets the weak righty in Mikolas.


Rajai Davis – DET – Tyler Matzek is giving up a .351 wOBA to righties and Davis has a .429 wOBA against lefties. He also has a .406 OBP against lefties and should have no trouble getting on base for the big guns in this one.


Elvis Andrus – TEX – Andrus is hitting a .364 wOBA against lefties and has hit safely in his last eight games. For his price and matchup he makes for a nice value play.


Also consider: Nick Castellanos – DET, Dustin Pedroia – BOS, Didi Gregorius – ARI, Scott Van Slyke - LAD




Ervin Santana – ATL – The light seems to have switched back on for Santana with 21 strikeouts and one earned run in his last two starts. Of course those were at home and against Miami and San Diego, but thankfully he goes to San Diego tonight who he just destroyed.


Rick Porcello – DET – Porcello isn’t going to blow anyone away, but the Rockies are without Tulo and they can’t hit on the road with a sub .300 wOBA and just 3.57 runs per game. Porcello can go deep into games and should get the win in this lopsided matchup.


Ian Kennedy – SDP – Kennedy has some good strikeout potential with more than a K per inning this season. And against the Braves at home who hit just a .296 wOBA against righties and strikeout 23% of the time, his odds look even better.


Also consider:  Jordan Zimmermann – WAS, Jacob deGrom – NYM, R.A. Dickey - TOR