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Daily Forecast: Chase Chacin

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

There are quite a few good pitchers to target today. And of course when I say good, I mean not so good. I’m going to look toward Cleveland today with righty Jhoulys Chacin taking the mound. There are worse pitchers going, but I like how well Cleveland has played at home and against right-handed pitching this season. They’ve hit the fifth best against righties this year with a .335 wOBA and the seventh best home wOBA of .337. There are a lot of value options to look toward on the left side of the plate in Cleveland.

 

I’ll also be looking hard at Jeremy Guthrie against the Blue Jays, Edinson Volquez against the Dodgers, Erik Bedard against the Red Sox and Wei-Yin Chen against the Astros.

 

 

TOP SHELF


Michael Brantley – CLE – Brantley gets a nice matchup with Chacin at home in this one. He hits righties better for his career and so far this season and has hit much better at home. Chacin is a groundball pitcher, but almost gives up a home run a game to righties.

 

Jose Reyes – TOR – A lefty against Guthrie today is hard to pass on. Add to that, short stop is a bit of a weak position today and it’s hard not to like Reyes. He hasn’t been outstanding this season, but has hit from the left side better than the right and will be at the top of the lineup in what should be another good offensive day from Toronto.

 

Edwin Encarnacion – TOR – I like both Bautista and E.E. in this one, but E.E. hits righties better than Joey Bats so I’m leaning his way. He costs a bunch, but Guthrie is a home run pitcher and Encarnacion happens to be a home run hitter, a lot of home runs in bunches hitter.

 

Also consider: Xander Bogaerts – BOS, Jose Altuve – HOU, Yasiel Puig – LAD, Miguel Cabrera – DET, Victor Martinez – DET, Hanley Ramirez – LAD

           

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Adam Lind – TOR – Lind is absolutely mashing right-handed pitching this season and righties mash Jeremy Guthrie. This season he’s given up 11 home runs to lefties and has done so for his career as well.

 

Juan Francisco – TOR – We saw what Toronto could do to weak righty pitching yesterday as they dismantled Aaron Brooks. Guthrie won’t be as shell-shocked as Brooks was, but he should be as hittable. Francisco has pretty much done all his hitting against righties with a 1.106 OPS against them compared to a paltry .387 OPS against lefties.

 

Lonnie Chisenhall – CLE – Chisenhall has raised his season average to .369 and is starting to hit with more power with three homers and 10 RBIs in his last 10 games. Like many Cleveland players he hits righties well and better at home.

 

Jonny Gomes – BOS – Erik Bedard started the season strong, but his peripherals didn’t look great. That showed up in his last time out when he was rocked for 13 hits and 8 earned runs in Toronto. Of course Toronto isn’t an easy place to pitch, but Bedard should continue to have trouble in Boston. Gomes does most of his damage against lefties and I think the Red Sox in general will get to him in this one. 

 

Dayan Viciedo – CWS – If Viciedo is facing a lefty I always take notice and Eric Stults isn’t exactly Sandy Koufax. For his career he has a nice .383 wOBA against lefties and Stults gives up .341 wOBA to righties as well as a higher everything away from San Diego.

 

Also consider: Dexter Fowler – HOU, Marlon Byrd – PHI, Adam Jones – BAL, Ian Kinsler – DET, Torii Hunter – DET, Adrian Gonzalez – LAD, Andre Ethier – LAD

 

 

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Jason Heyward – ATL – Heyward continues to play well and gets to face a righty in Nathan Eovaldi in this one.  I like Eovaldi, but he does get hit well by lefties for a .311 average this season and Heyward is hitting righties much better than lefties and has heated up of late having raised his average 40 points over the last 14 games.

 

David Murphy – CLE  - Murphy does most of his hitting against righties with a .479 SLG% against them this season to go with a .518 SLG% at home. He’s been streaky this season, but everything points to him having a good game today.

 

Michael Bourn – CLE – Bourn gets his identity by hitting right-handed pitchers. This season he’s hitting .330 against them compared to .191 against lefties. He’s raised his average .44 points since May 11th and he has 18 hits in his last 47 at bats and should be in on the fun today.

 

John Mayberry – PHI – The lefty killer is averaging .89 FanDuel points per plate appearance against southpaws this season.

 

Also consider: Adam Eaton – CWS, Nick Markakis – BAL, Mike Carp – BOS, Brock Holt – BOS, Adrian Nieto – CWS, Carlos Ruiz – PHI, Jason Kipnis – CLE, George Kottaras – CLE

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER


Zack Greinke – LAD – There are quite a few stud pitchers going today, but out of the top priced guys I lean toward Greinke at home against the Pirates and Volquez. The Pirates strike out 23.3% of the time on the road and average just 3.15 runs with a measly .228 batting average.  We know what Greinke can do, especially in the pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium.

 

Chris Sale – CHW – Yet another high priced pitcher, Sale isn’t quite in the Grienke, Darvish, Scherzer range, but has a great matchup against San Diego. Sale has looked great since coming off the DL and should have no trouble against the Padres who have the worst road average and runs scored per game.

 

Jon Lester – BOS – I like his matchup against Tampa Bay who don’t score well on the road and strike out a bunch. Lester is risky for a blow up at any time, but can strike out 15 at any time as well. I like him a lot for tournament plays today.

 

Wade Miley – ARI – Miley is also a risky play, but has a few things going for him. The Reds are hitting just .280 wOBA against lefties this season and the same wOBA on the road. Miley has been fairly meh this season, but did K 11 in his last start. He’s a bit of a punt play to stack hitters with a little upside.

 

Also consider: Lance Lynn – STL, Aaron Harang – ATL, Nathan Eovaldi - MIA, Cole Hamels - PHI