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Daily

Daily Forecast: Colby Crush

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

It's a Thursday, which means some teams are off. This time around, there are 11 games, four of which are early and seven are late. Scattered storms could affect the game in Minnesota.

 

If you want a stack today, look no farther than New York City, where Rangers starter Colby Lewis takes on the Yankees. Lewis has struggled to the tune of a 6.37 ERA. While his strikeout, walk, and home run rates indicate an ERA closer to the low 4's, this matchup is particularly bad for him. He's a right-handed fly ball pitcher visiting a park that increases left-handed hitter home run power by 28 percent. The Yankees can load up on lefties too, which means there will be a lot of guys aiming at the short porch. This game is in the early slot, so run over to your preferred platform if you want to take advantage.

 

TOP SHELF


Brandon Moss - OAK: The Athletics face one of the lesser pitchers today in Scott Feldman. While a game at Oakland's Coliseum isn't ideal for offense, Moss has done just fine in his home digs. Moret the point, there really isn't all that much to choose from today. I wish I could be more enthusiastic about the first name of the day, but there aren't many juicy matchups out there. He'll have the platoon advantage and enough power to help your team.

 

Giancarlo Stanton - MIA: Speaking of power, Stanton will see Aaron Harang. The Braves hurler pitched well through the early going, but his ERA has crept northwards throughout the year. Stanton routinely hits home runs in Miami, so Turner Field's 14 percent penalty to right-handed power shouldn't kill his value.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury - NYY: Ellsbury should feature prominently in the Yankees attack against Lewis. Those who had hoped to see a bump in power for Ellsbury have been disappointed. He's popped a couple extra home runs, but those have been at the expense of other extra base hits. With a fly ball pitcher on the hill, you can sit back and hope today is the day he gets into one.

 

Also Consider: Jose Bautista - TOR, David Ortiz - BOS, Carlos Gomez - MIL

 

BULK PURCHASE


Seth Smith - SDP: Poor Smith is all alone in that Padres lineup. It's nice that he'll see Jackson at Wrigley Field, but the supporting cast is so poor that you might end up "losing" a plate appearance. It doesn't help that any home run he does hit is liable to be a solo shot. 

 

Daniel Murphy - NYM: Murphy isn't particularly powerful, but Miller Park does boost lefty home run power by 22 percent. Matt Garza is coming off one of the worst outings of the season. He'll probably be ready and raring to go, but there's an off chance he's just hurt.

 

Chase Headley - NYY: Headley barely exceeds my arbitrary cutoff between bulk purchase and bargain bin. Because he's in new digs, I figured he deserved a write up. The switch hitting Headley escapes Petco Park, where right-handed hitters go to die. Lefties do alright in San Diego, but only Colorado is better than Yankees stadium for lefty offense. That Yankee stadium also boosts right-handed stats is an added bonus. Today, Headley will swing at the short porch. He's hit well this month, so maybe he's finally healthy.

 

Also Consider: Brian McCann - NYY, Shin-Soo Choo - TEX, Carlos Beltran - NYY

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Corey Hart - SEA: The offseason acquisition has been quiet on the power front since returning from the disabled list. He may bat cleanup against Wei-Yin Chen this evening, which is enticing when combined with his bargain price. He could be suffering the lingering effects of injury, but it's more likely he's just getting back into the groove after a long layoff. He's batted .292/.366/.509 against lefties over his career. He's not as good as he used to be, but we can still expect good numbers against southpaws.

 

Stephen Vogt - OAK: He's a down lineup hitter on a home team, which is usually a combination to avoid. However, he's also a low cost catcher who has strong numbers against right-handed pitching. You won't be picking him as your feature bat, but if you need to find some money, the downgrade from Jaso to Vogt could get you there. As we discussed earlier, Feldman is pretty mediocre. 

 

Yangervis Solarte - SDP: Prior to his trade to San Diego, Solarte was showing why he was a minor league free agent before this season. Tepid offense is to be avoided in DFS, although you'd be happy if you started him yesterday. He draws a reference here because he's cheap and bats near the top of a lineup that will face Jackson.

 

Also Consider: Yasmani Grandal - SDP, Nick Swisher - CLE, Oswaldo Arcia - MIN

 

STARTING PITCHER

 

Corey Kluber - CLE: Kluber has continued his growth into a DFS beast. He's always been able to generate whiffs, but this is the first season he's struck out more than a batter per inning. The Royals make for an odd matchup. They don't strike out often, nor do they hit for power. The Kansas calling card is batting average. Kluber's might not put together his typical punch out numbers, but he should last deep into the game.

 

Tyson Ross - SDP: Over the last month, Ross was one of the best pitchers in fantasy. He racked up strikeouts while lasting deep into the game - the top two indicators of DFS success. Today he'll face a Cubs lineup that struggles against right-handed pitching. He's opposed by Cubs starter Edwin Jackson, so Ross has a good chance to earn a win. All of the elements are there for a good and thorough stomping at Wrigley Field.

 

Wei-Yin Chen - BAL: The Mariners possess a very left-handed lineup, which makes Wei-Yin Chen an intriguing discount option today. Chen doesn't strikeout hitters the way some of the alternatives do, but he does wield impressive command and control to flummox his foes. The venue - Safeco Field - adds value to Chen's start. Unfortunately for Chen, the O's are opposed by Hisashi Iwakuma, so this lines up as a pitcher's duel on paper.

 

Also Consider - Jeff Samardzija - OAK, Tim Hudson - SFG, Brandon McCarthy - NYY

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.