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Daily Forecast: Crush

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

After Cleveland went 13 innings with the Tigers and had to use today’s would-be starter Josh Tomlin for three innings last night, I’m liking the Orioles chances at home against what should be struggling Justin Masterson and a depleted bullpen. Baltimore has scored 23 runs in the last three games and should be able to continue that production in this one.  Masterson has an ERA over 5 and a WHIP just under 1.50.  He’s getting hit hardest by lefties this season so Chris Davis really sticks out, but I’d feel good throwing most Orioles out there and seeing if they fly.



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Chris Davis – BAL – Davis’ home runs have been hard to come by this season, but he hit three of them two days ago and had a couple hits last night. I’m going out on a limb here and saying this is the start of a hot-streak. I think the Orioles get to the depleted pitchers of Cleveland and take advantage at home.


Brandon Moss – OAK – Moss continues to do his thing with a .712 wOBA over the last five games. He’s been doing most that damage against righties and on the road and he gets that same set up today. Alex Cobb is coming off the DL after having played very well to start the season, but this A’s team is hitting like crazy and Cobb may need to get back into the major league groove.


Edwin Encarnacion TOR – There really isn’t anyway for Edwin to get much hotter right now. He has eight hits in his last 24 at bats. Not too shabby. But what if I tell you that seven of those hits were home runs? Would you give me the “Get Out!” Seinfeld shove? Yeah, me too. Jon Lester is a lefty and Edwin is a righty. That sets up their splits in E.E.’s favor and anything in his favor right now can’t be good for the pitcher.


Seth Smith - SD – It may be worth pitching Jake Arrieta in San Diego due to the park and matchup, but Seth Smith will have something to say about it to be sure. He’s currently hitting an 1.046 OPS against righties and Arrieta gives up 1.51 HR/9 and a fat .351 wOBA to lefties.


Also consider:  Yasiel Puig – LAD , Carlos Gomez – MIN, Freddie Freeman – ATL, Andrew McCutchen – PIT 







Hunter Pence – SFG – Well, targeting hitters in Colorado hasn’t gone so well for the Colorado side of things this week, but the Giants have done a little damage, including Pence who hit a home run last night and gets a nice matchup today with De La Rosa, who he has hit well in the past. Pence is also on a nice nine game hitting streak and is hitting lefties for a .379 clip this season.


Adam Dunn – CWS – Dunn does most of his damage against right-handed pitchers at home. He gets that today against David Phelps who has a 1.32 HR/9 rate against lefties and a 1.42 HR/9 rate on the road.


Denard Span – WAS – Span has stepped up in the span of the last four games and hit his first home run of the season last night.  Edinson Volquez has been downright awful of late giving up 20 earned runs in his last four starts.



Also consider: Jayson Werth – WAS, Jonny Gomes – BOS, Starlin Castro – CHI







Pablo Sandoval – SFG – Sandoval gets to hit in Colorado again and his price coupled with how well he’s been hitting is hard to pass on. He’s 10 for his last 27 with a couple doubles and home runs in his last seven games and he’s hit De La Rosa well in the past, so feel free spending the few bucks you need to on him.


Ike Davis – PIT - It’s hard to get away from Davis when he’s facing a righty and his price is low. He’s being platooned right now and for good reason. He has yet to get a hit off a lefty in 15 at bats and holds a .913 OPS against righties in 93 at bats.


Allen Craig - STL – Craig can’t seem to get much going this year, but he was seeing the ball well last night with three hits and two walks and now he gets a lefty in Wade Miley. Even though Craig is hitting .233 on the season, he’s hitting lefties for a .333 average and .981 OPS.


Also consider: Ian Desmond – WAS, Cody Asche – PHI, Junior Lake - CHI





Zach Greinke – LAD – Greinke is easily the play of the day against the Mets. He has a 2.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 61 Ks and just 12 walks in 53.2 innings and a 7-1 record. He gets the Mets in a pitchers' park who are hitting a .276 wOBA against righties this season. If you can fit him in, fit him in.


Sonny Gray – OAK – Gray hasn’t allowed over 3 runs in a game this season and hasn’t gone less that six innings and Tampa Bay is hitting a measly .275 wOBA against righties. He’s actually been better on the road this year and he’ll be pitching in a pitchers’ park with a great offense backing him up.


Lance Lynn – STL – The Cards have allowed two runs to the D-backs so far in this series and Lynn loves pitching at home so far in his career. I like Lynn to get the win and finish off the sweep.



Also consider: Matt Garza – MIL , Cole Hamels – PHI, Robbie Ray - DET