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Daily Forecast: Free Freeman

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

Nick Tepesch will get his second start of the season after being called up to replace Martin Perez. His first went fine against the Astros, but it was the Astros and he only lasted 5.1 innings on 104 pitches. His career numbers suggest he is very susceptible to left-handed hitters and the Mariners are full of southpaws. Tepesch has given up 1.72 home runs per nine innings to lefties as well as a .365 wOBA. There are plenty of lefties to choose from for Seattle, but I can name seven of them who might be worth a play in hitter friendly Arlington and I just might below. 

 

 

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TOP SHELF


Josh Donaldson – OAK – Eric Bedard has gotten away with 4.2 walks per nine innings and striking out just 6.1 batters per nine innings and still holds a 2.78 ERA. Oakland and company won’t stand for that kind of hypocrisy much longer.

 

Victor Martinez – DET – His price hasn’t quite caught up with his play of late and his play of late has been hot to say the least. Zach McAlister is very hittable from either side of the plate and has a poor ERA of 5.36 and a WHIP of 1.43 on the season. The main reason I picked Tepesch over McAlister as my target today was the value out of the Seattle bats since the Tigers run a little more cash due to their great play this season.

 

Freddie Freeman – ATL – Freeman owns Kyle Lohse with four hits in five at bats including a couple homers, but you don’t have to rely on BvP for this one. Freeman has been hot against anyone of late and his splits all point to a good game with him hitting righties and at home better than lefties on the road.

 

Also consider: Ian Kinsler – DET,  Josh Reddick – OAK, Nelson Cruz – BAL, Seth Smith - SD

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Michael Saunders – SEA – Saunders fits my lefty vs. Tepesch criteria today and has also hit well over his last four games going 7-for-16 with a double, triple and home run for five RBIs and four runs scored.

 

Garrett Jones – PIT – Jones is coming off a 4-for-5 game against Philly with two double and two RBIs.  He gets to face Kyle Kendrick today and he’s been thumping right-handed pitching for a .911 OPS this season and a .351 wOBA over the last three seasons. Kendrick has been getting just as battered by lefties this year, so all the signs are pointing to another good game for Jones.

 

Justin Morneau – COL – Matt Cain hasn’t done much to hang his hat on this season. His control has been poor with 3.5 walks per nine innings and you want plenty of control when you play in Coors. Morneau has had a nice season and should continue to get starts against righties as he has an 1.014 OPS against them this season.

 

Also consider: Wilin Rosario – COL, Nolan Arenado – COL, Pedro Alvarez – PIT, Jed Lowrie - OAK

 

 

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Kyle Seager – SEA – Seager is coming off a 3-for-5 performance with a couple RBIs and a double in Texas and now gets a good matchup against Tepesch who he has hit well in the past. Seager also has better splits on the road and hits righties for a nice .347 wOBA. Add to that the friendly hitter’s park and I like his chances.

 

Cody Asche – PHI – Asche has been playing well of late (offensively at least). He is 7-for-15 with two doubles, one home run and six RBIs in his last four games. With his recent success he should continue to get starts and Nathan Eovaldi was hit hard his last time out, giving up six runs on nine hits over 4.1 innings in San Francisco.  I don’t love the park, but for his price I think he’ll get us to value.

 

Carl Crawford – LAD – Carl continues to hit well and is also doing work on the base paths with three steals in his last two games. He gets a righty in deGrom, which is always good for him.

 

Also consider: James Jones – SEA, Nick Franklin - SEA, Tyler Colvin –SF

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER


Max Scherzer – DET – His price makes him tough to take in this game, but you can’t deny how well he’s been pitching. I’m not sure if it’s the Husky eyes, but he’s elite and he’s been playing that way with an 11.9 K rate, 1.83 ERA and a good offense backing him up for a 6-1 record. He should be able to get another win against McAlister without too much work.

 

Tanner Roark – WAS – Roark had his worst outing at home in his career last time out, but still got the win and gave up just two earned runs in five innings. He has yet to lose at home and has an ERA of less than one there. As a team the Reds have the worst wOBA in the league over the last two weeks. The problem here is that the Nationals have the second worst wOBA during that span and Alfredo Simon has also been pitching well. This looks like it will be a low scoring affair and I’ll take Roark in his home stadium.

 

Phil Hughes – MIN – Hughes has won 4 of his last 5 starts and only allowed 7 runs over his last 32.1 innings. Add to that his 23 strikeouts against only one walk and you have some impressive numbers going into a pitchers park in San Diego, a team who is one of the worst hitting teams in baseball at the moment and score the least amount of runs per game.

 

Also consider: Michael Wacha – STL, Nathan Eovaldi - MIA