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Daily Forecast: Goldy Lock

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

 The weather looks a little shaky in Chicago tonight, but with thunderstorms there are usually enough pockets to get a game in, so I’m going to go with my favorite matchup for hitters today with Justin Masterson on the road in the hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field. Masterson’s velocity is down and he’s given up 17 earned runs in his last 13 innings. The White Sox have a .329 wOBA against righties this season and are averaging 4.82 runs per game (4.92 at home).  Lefties Adam Eaton, Adam Dunn, Conor Gillaspie and Alejandro De Aza could be nice value plays tonight.

 

I’m also bullish on L.A. righties against Roenis Elias, Arizona righties against Eric Stults and Brewers righties against Wei-Yin Chen. These will be my main stacks throughout my lineups tonight.

 

 

TOP SHELF


Justin Upton – ATL – It almost doesn’t matter who he faces at home as long as it’s a left-handed pitcher this season. At home he is batting .381 with a 1.249 OPS and 10 of his 13 home runs. Against lefties he is hitting .400 with a 1.571 OPS and 6 home runs in 30 at bats. Lester has been dominant at times this season and will get his K’s against the Braves, but he better be pitching around Upton tonight.

 

Paul Goldschmidt – ARI – Goldy continues to do his thing in the air-conditioned desert while Eric Stults does his thing on the road, which is to lose and give up runs. Goldschmidt has destroyed left handed pitching in his career to the tune of a .413 wOBA. Goldy is my play of the day.

 

Albert Pujols -- LAA – Pujols is cruising right along with 14 homers and 31 RBIs, but his price hasn’t gotten out of hand. He’s already hit a home run off Elias the last time they met this season at Safeco and there’s a good chance it happens again tonight.

 

Also consider: Mike Trout – LAA, Adam Jones – BAL, Ryan Braun – MIL, Carlos Gomez - MIL

 

 

 

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BULK PURCHASE

 

George Springer – HOU – Well, you can’t say much, which hasn’t already been said about Springer springing into action. He’s gotten on base 24 of his last 51 plate appearances, scored 14 runs, hit six home runs and has 17 RBIs. He gets notorious home run giver upper Jeremy Guthrie to try to extend his home run streak to five games. Wright isn’t leading the league in awesomeness right now, but he’s still hitting over .300 with 27 RBIs.

 

Adam Dunn – CWS – Dunn gets the struggling Masterson at home and has hit him well in the past. I like the matchup, the splits and the park and those three things often don’t come together.

 

Garrett Jones – MIA – Jones is almost a must play against non-elite right-handers. He gets that tonight with Blake Treinen who walked five in 5.2 innings his last time out.

 

Also consider: Aaron Hill – ARI, Howie Kendrick – LAA, Rickie Weeks – MIL,

 

 


BARGAIN BIN

 

Khris Davis – MIL – Davis went on a tear last night going 4-for-4 with a home run and he’s raised his average .30 points since May 18th.  He faces lefty Wei-Yin Chen and he has been a lefty killer this season as he’s batting .370 against them compared to his putrid .200 against righties.

 

Martin Prado – ARI –  Prado has been serviceable of late and will get a nice lefty matchup in Eric Stults. He hits lefties much better than righties and should easily hit value as a punt play at his price.

 

Chris Iannetta – LAA – Iannetta lives on lefties so he should be in the lineup today. He has a nice 1.000 OPS against them this season and Roenis Elias has given up a home run in each of his last five games.

 

Also consider: Adam Eaton – CWS, Conor Gillaspie  - CWS, Sean Rodriguez – TAM, C.J. Cron

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER


Jared Weaver – LAA – Weaver has stepped up his game with just nine earned runs allowed in his last seven starts. His K-Rate isn’t great, so his upside is somewhat limited, but I like the Angels to get to Elias and Weaver to get the win in this one.

 

Tim Hudson – SFG – Any Giants pitcher at home against a weak-hitting team is someone to take a close look at and Hudson has been the Giants best pitcher this season. The Cubs can’t seem to hit right-handed pitching and rank third to last in wOBA against them.

 

Collin McHugh – HOU – His price is extremely appealing, especially for someone averaging over a strikeout an inning. Away from Houston he has only given up four earned runs in 20 innings to go along with 23 Ks to just four walks. The Royals are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball and are in a pitchers park while they trot out Jeremy Guthrie against the now hot Astros hitters. I like the chances for a win in this one for McHugh.  

 

Also consider: Chris Sale - CWS, Jon Niese – NYM, Jon Lester - BOS