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Daily Forecast: He's Werth It

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

The Rockies are going home tonight and you know what that means, runs!  For this matchup we have lefty Franklin Morales versus righty Doug Fister. Fister has been pitching well so we’ll lean against Morales for this one.  He has been shuffled back and forth between starter and reliever due to his poor performance so far this season. He has pitched better of late, but hasn’t been able to get out of the fifth inning even when putting up good numbers.  Righties are killing him this season with a .395 wOBA and the Nationals are hitting a team wOBA of .330 against lefties. Line up your Nats’ righties.

 

And today we get a two-for in the stacking department. Mr. Vidal Nuno takes on the Detroit Tigers. Nuno is also a lefty and the Tigers are hitting lefties for a .347 wOBA while Nuno is giving up a .376 wOBA to righties. I will have plenty of Tigers and Nats on my team tonight.

 

 

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TOP SHELF

 

Victor Martinez – DET – Martinez has absolutely demolished left-handed pitching this season with an amazing .508 wOBA and .358 ISO.  I’ve already mentioned just how bad Nuno has been against righties this season and Martinez looks to be back to full health. He’s a top play to be sure.

 

Jose Abreu – CWSJeremy Guthrie is another stackable option to consider. He has given up 17 earned runs in his last 14.2 innings, including four homers and now gets to pitch in the bandbox of U.S. Cellular. Guthrie has been much better against righties than lefties, but Abreu has actually been at his best this season against righties. He owns a .410 wOBA against them and also hits better at home whereas Guthrie is much worse away from the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium.

 

Jayson Werth – WAS – Werth has been on a tear of late. In his last 30 at bats he’s had 11 hits, including four doubles, four home runs and 11 RBIs. That kind of hot hitting coupled with facing a lefty, which he is hitting a .420 wOBA against, and the great hitting conditions at Coors make Werth a no-brainer pick for tonight.

 

Also consider: Anthony Rendon – WAS, Carlos Gomez – MIL, Andrew McCutchen – PIT, Mike Trout – LAA

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Jacoby Ellsbury – NYY –Ellsbury is coming off a four hit night and has been playing well before that. Mikolas is yet another stackable guy. We really could see some runs tonight.

 

Brock Holt – BOS – Holt hasn’t slowed down and it’s looking like he’s not planning to. He’s hitting both lefties and righties well and at home or on the road. Right now there aren’t any holes in his offense and he’s still at a nice price. Drew Hutchinson pitches a gem every once in a while, but usually he’s giving up 4-5 runs.

 

Ryan Zimmerman – WAS – Zimmerman is starting to heat up just in time for a nice run in Colorado.  He’s seven for his last 15 with two home runs and seven RBIs and gets a lefty, his preferred split, in Coors.

 

Also consider: Chris Davis – BAL, Bryce Harper – WAS, Melky Cabrera – TOR, Hunter Pence – SFG, Brian Dozier – MIN, Ian Kinsler – DET, Neil Walker – PIT, Manny Machado – BAL

 

 


 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Austin Jackson – DET – Jackson has lost his home run power, but now that he’s hitting leadoff he doesn’t need it and with this Tigers’ lineup behind him he will have no trouble giving you great value tonight. For July he’s hitting .354 and has a nice .403 OBP. He’s also hitting lefties for a .329 average compared to .241 average against righties.  Like Werth, Jackson is a no brainer tonight.

 

Adam Eaton – CWS – Eaton has 10 hits in his last 20 at bats and gets to face Guthrie who is giving up a .359 wOBA to lefties along with a 1.79 HR/9.

 

Mark Teixeira – NYY – For Tex we are looking for a chance at home runs and he gets that tonight.  In 14 innings the Rangers’ Miles Mikolas has given up 16 runs and two homers. Tex hits righties better than lefties and has a better home run rate at home with the short right-field porch.

 

Also consider: Stephen Drew – BOS, Trevor Plouffe – MIN, Denard Span – WAS

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER


Chris Sale – CWS – Sale is the no doubt ace tonight. He loves pitching at home with his 1.97 ERA and 75 Ks in 59 innings (compared to 27 Ks in 35 innings on the road).  The Royals are tough to strike out and aren’t the pushovers they once were, but they are no match for Sale at home or on the road, having pitched eight shutout innings against them in Kauffman already this season.

 

Julio Teheran – ATL – Teheran has fallen on tough times his last two outings, but gets to return to Atlanta to face the strike out heavy Marlins tonight.  In 66 innings at home Teheran has allowed just nine earned runs (1.23 ERA) and a .177 batting average.  The Marlins score just 3.67 runs per game, strike out 24% of the time and have a .295 wOBA on the road this season.

 

Jonathon Niese – NYM – I love taking lefties against the lefty laden Seattle lineup. I’d rather them be on the road, but Niese has been good on the road and extremely steady this season, with only two games where he’s given up more than three runs. He’s not going to blow anyone away, but he makes for a safe play.

 

Also consider: Shane Greene – NYY, Roenis Elias – SEA, Justin Verlander – DET