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Daily

Daily Forecast: Jay Day

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

Is it okay to target Toronto hitters again? Well, I guess we’ll see, because they still aren’t putting up the numbers they were a couple weeks ago, but they get a nice matchup against the righty Chris Tillman. Tillman has been erratic at best this season with just three games where he’s given up less than three runs over his last 11 starts.  Lefties are hitting him for a .290 average and the Jays usually bring six players from that side, not including Bautista and Encarnacion, who hit righties well.

 

Camden Yards is one of the best parks in the league for lefty power numbers and I think we’ll see the old (days old) Blue Jays team show up.



TOP SHELF


Victor Martinez – DET – VMart continued his great play as he went 3-for-5 with a home run and double yesterday. Today he faces Ricky Nolasco who has given up 13 homers in 79 innings this season.

 

Justin Upton – ATL – Hector Santiago had a 4+ ERA in AAA when he got his last spot start and ended up pitching great. I just don’t see that happening in Atlanta against the right-hand heavy Braves lineup. They hit lefties like their lives depended on it and do it better at home. Upton just missed a homer two days ago and I think it's happening today. 

 

Evan Gattis – ATL – Gattis has been on an absolute tear. He’s hit in 14 straight with seven homers in that span. He faces the rookie lefty at home where Gattis has over half of his home runs while he’s also hit four homers in 28 at bats against southpaws this season.

 

Also consider: Jose Bautista – TOR, Edwin Encarnacion – TOR, Hanley Ramirez – LAD. Mike Trout – LAA, Andrew McCutchen – PIT

 

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Pablo Sandoval – SFG – Nicasio has most of his trouble against lefties as they are hitting a lofty .960 OPS off him this year and when Sandoval is hitting from the left side this season he’s batting .294 versus a horrid .177 from the right side. He’s 10 for his last 22 and should be able to get to the struggling Nicasio.

 

Marlon Byrd – PHI – Byrd was the word yesterday as he had a double in a triple against the Cubs, one of his many old teams. He’s hit a couple homers in his last seven games and gets a nice matchup against Travis Wood who is giving up an .832 OPS to righties along with seven home runs. Byrd is strong against lefties, batting over .300 against them on the season.

 

Jay Bruce – CINMarco Estrada has given up an amazing 20 home runs in 79 innings pitched this season. Bruce has been a bit hit and miss, but he has plenty of home run power and could get in on that home run parade Estrada is throwing.

 

Also consider: Joey Votto – CIN, Alex Gordon – KAN, Anthony Rizzo – CHI, Melky Cabrera – TOR, Juan Francisco – TOR, Adam Lind – TOR, Buster Posey – SFG

 

 

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Matt Adams – STL – Adams has hit two homers in his two games back from DL. He gets a tough matchup against Doug Fister, but lefties are hitting .305 against him and Adams is hitting .375 against righties. For a bargain bin price he’s hard to pass on.

 

Angel Pagan – SFG – Pagan is hitting righties well this year with a .321 average and we already know how Nicasio has been pitching of late, especially to lefties.

 

Devin Mesoraco – CIN – Mesoraco has been struggling of late, but we know what he can do and that’s hit home runs. Marco Estrada knows a little something about giving up home runs.

 

Derek Norris – OAK – Nuno is a pitcher to target today as he has given up eight homers and a .344 wOBA to righties while Norris has a .457 wOBA against lefties.

 

Also consider: Kevin Kiermaier – TAM, John Mayberry – PHI, Eugenio Suarez – DET

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER


Madison Bumgarner – SFG – Bumgarner has struck out 95 batters in 87.2 innings this season and holds a 2.67 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Rockies have a lackluster wOBA on the road with .301 and are challenging the MadBum with the not so good Nicasio. The chances for a win here are very good, especially if Tulowitzki is still out.

 

Josh Beckett – LAD – The Diamondbacks hit worse on the road and against righties. That’s the situation we have here. Beckett has also been pitching well only giving up more than two runs three out of his 12 starts. He’s holding hitters to a .205 average this season.

 

Ian Kennedy – SDG – The Mets on average hit worse at home and against righties. Kennedy is not perfect by any means, but can get the job done and has over a strikeout per inning. As long as he has that K upside and is in a pitcher’s park against a poor offense, I am willing to take the risk on him.

 

Also consider:  David Price - TAM, Daisuke Matsuzaka – NYM, Corey Kluber - CLE