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Daily

Daily Forecast: LA Cobbler

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

 

This evening features a 14 game contest although weather could interrupt a few of them. Cleveland, Washington, Detroit, and Colorado all come with varying risk for a storm. Double check your work closer to game time.

 

The stack of the day comes in Boston, where Allen Webster will face the Blue Jays. One encouraging sign from Webster is a 11 percent swinging strike rate. That whiff rate is comparable to R.A. Dickey and Yu Darvish. Other peripherals are less encouraging. He's walked more batters than he's struck out (5.40 K/9, 5.91 BB/9), That walk rate is too high to succeed at the major league level. His strikeout rate would need to double just to find some success. Fenway should help against Toronto's left-handed hitters - the spacious right field can really sap power numbers. However, the Jays have a couple notable righties who can swing at the easy-to-reach Green Monster.

 

 

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $40,000 Fantasy Baseball league for Friday night's MLB games. It's $25 to join and first prize is $5,500. Starts at 7:05pm ET on FridayHere's the FanDuel link.



 

TOP SHELF


Jose Abreu - CWS: Abreu doesn't have a platoon split, but that doesn't mean we should spit on the platoon advantage. He'll face sinkerballing lefty T.J. House, who does indeed have a split - righties have hit .310/.372/.476 against him. The big red flag with this matchup is Progressive Field. Right-handed power is 22 percent below average, so Abreu will really have to earn his home runs. He has the raw power to do it.

 

Anthony Rendon - WAS: The Nationals will face Jerome Williams. He has a 2.03 ERA since joining the Phillies, but don't be deceived. He's still the same mediocre pitcher who was cut from two teams this season, including the pitching starved Rangers. Rendon is one of my favorite pure hitters. He always seems to have a chance for multiple hits, with a little power thrown in to boot. He tends to hit first or second in the Nationals lineup.

 

Victor Martinez - DET: By FanDuel points, Martinez has the sixth highest average points per game. Two players ahead of him - Paul Goldschmidt and Troy Tulowitzki - are out for the season. The top catcher simply doesn't make easy outs. He rarely strikes out, but it's his resurgent power that has really made his season. With a .332/.404/.569 line on the year, there's a lot to like. He'll face Jake Peavy this evening. Peavy has devolved to around league average, which doesn't play very well against the Detroit attack.

 

Also Consider: Jose Bautista - TOR, David Ortiz - BOS, Jose Reyes - TOR

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Robinson Cano - SEA: Cano's power is way down this season - mostly because he's transitioned from Yankee Stadium to Safeco Field. He's still a great, high average threat. A game at Globe Life Park could spark his power game. With Scott Baker on the hill, Cano's a good bet for multiple hits at the very least.

 

Devin Mesoraco - CIN: The powerful catcher is coming off a 4-for-4 performance. He'll face fly ball pitcher Bartolo Colon at homer friendly Great American Ball Park. Colon doesn't allow an usual rate of home runs, but Mesoraco's power could overrule the wily veteran pitcher. 

 

Nolan Arenado - COL: Arenado has a lovely matchup against lefty Eric Stults. With the Coors Field effect secured, Arenado could be among the top performers of the day. Stults is incredibly mediocre, which probably won't play well in Denver. Arenado is the focal point of the Rockies offense, so he should get RBI opportunities.

 

Also Consider: Hanley Ramirez - LAD, Adam LaRoche - WAS, Drew Stubbs - COL

 

 

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Yasiel Puig - LAD: I don't really know what Puig is doing in the bargain bin. Sure, he's been slumping pretty hard, and he's playing through a couple injuries, but this is Yasiel Puig we're talking about. Even banged up, he's a dynamic, multi-hit threat with power. He'll have the platoon advantage against Vidal Nuno.

 

Nate Freiman - OAK: Freiman has been starting when lefties are on the hill. The first baseman has seen limited major league action. When he has played, he's hit .291/.340/.492 against southpaws. The last time I recommended him, he hit two home runs, so I'm hoping he can replicate that performance against Brett Oberholtzer.

 

Yasmani Grandal - SDP: I recommended Grandal yesterday, so of course he got a day off. With Coors Field in play, the powerful switch hitter is once again a cheap power play. With such a low average, you almost have to look at this as a home run or bust proposition. The Padres will face lefty Tyler Matzek.

 

Also Consider: Brandon Barnes - COL, Jonny Gomes - OAK, Asdrubal Cabrera - WAS

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER

 

Hisashi Iwakuma - SEA: The classic formula for DFS success with pitchers is simple. Grab a guy with a strikeout per inning, over six innings per start, and a better than even chance at a victory. Iwakuma is a little unusual in that he has a roughly league average strikeout rate. However, he also averages nearly seven innings a start which in turn increases his chance for a victory. He'll face the Rangers pitiful offense, and he's opposed by Scott Baker. Anything like a normal Iwakuma outing should be an auto-win.

 

Matt Shoemaker - LAA: Speaking of guys with good matchups, Matt Shoemaker gets that strikeout per inning we all desire. He's averaged only six innings as a starter, but he's pitched at least seven in his last three starts. He'll face a forgettable Twins offense at pitcher friendly Target Field. Ricky Nolasco is on the other side of this game, so the Angels offense should provide plenty of firepower for a victory.

 

Michael Pineda - NYY: If you want to buy a cheapie, you're going to take on some risk today. Pineda will face a solid Royals lineup at Yankee Stadium. Those aren't ideal conditions for the righty, but he's also extremely talented. He has the stuff to post a dominating performance in any outing, there's just a much bigger chance it will go sideways. With James Shields starting for the Royals, Pineda will need a studly performance to take the victory.

 

Also Consider - Stephen Strasburg - WAS, Jeff Samardzija - OAK, T.J. House - CLE

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on NBC Sports Edge, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.