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Daily

Daily Forecast: New Look Jays

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

Two games will be played in the late afternoon, which leaves us with 13 games for the evening contest. Weather could affect St. Louis, Detroit, and Minnesota, but it's too early to tell. Keep an eye on those venues if you plan to use them.

 

The Blue Jays are among the bottom third of teams against left-handed pitching. So it might come as a shock when I suggest that their matchup against John Danks is the place to stack today. It comes down to two things: players and ballpark. While it's true that Toronto has struggled versus southpaws, they also have a terrifying top four of Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion. Recent additions like Danny Valencia and Nolan Reimold make the Blue Jays more threatening than earlier in the season. Add U.S. Cellular Field to the mix, and there is potential for fireworks. The Cell boosts right-handed home run power by 28 percent over a neutral park. Look for this stack to bring out the thunder sticks.

 

TOP SHELF


Anthony Rendon - WAS: Rendon has settled in as a nice major league hitter. He doesn't excel in any one way, but he's always a good candidate for a multi-hit game. He'll face lefty Jeff Locke. The ground ball specialist has shown some hefty platoon splits this season - right-handers have taken him for a .285/.330/.445 line with nine home runs. Rendon himself possesses a .317/.361/.496 line against southpaws, so the platoon advantage should be doubly favorable for him today.

 

Jose Bautista - TOR: Bautista was mentioned in the outset as part of the Blue Jays stack against Danks. Let's pause to consider what Bautista has done to lefties this season. In 111 plate appearances, he's hit .362/.459/.681 with nine of his 23 home runs. Or if you prefer colorful phrases, he stomps on lefties like cockroaches. Look for some home run action today.

 

Corey Dickerson - COL: Dylan Axelrod nearly made the cut as today's pitcher to stack. The former White Sox righty is now with the Reds. His work in the majors has included uninspired peripherals and a tendency to allow an elevated home run rate. His 2014 debut will take place at Coors Field. Unless he's ironed out that home run issue, he might give up a handful today (one or two is much more likely). Getting back to Dickerson, he'll have the platoon advantage, and he's a potent power hitter.

 

Also Consider: David Ortiz - BOS, Michael Brantley - CLE, Jose Abreu - CWS

 

BULK PURCHASE


Nolan Arenado - COL: Colorado's interim clean-up hitter won't have the platoon advantage today, which hurts his value. However, he's facing a decidedly mediocre pitcher in Axelrod and it only takes one mistake pitch to put up a homer in Colorado. The weakest part of Arenado's game is his on base percentage, but that works just fine for DFS owners. Walks don't win money, hits do.

 

Alexei Ramirez - CWS: He's no great shakes with the stick - a .288/.323/.417 line speaks to his mere adequacy. However, with Adam Eaton on the disabled list and lefty Mark Buehrle on the mound, Ramirez is likely to bat first or second for the Sox. He's not a guy with big platoon splits, but he can occasionally turn on one. It's more likely you'll be hoping for multiple hits than power from Ramirez. His value derives from his position. With Troy Tulowitzki done for the year, most of the options at shortstop are unexciting.

 

Billy Hamilton - CIN: Hamilton will bat lefty against Jordan Lyles. The Colorado sinker baller has been less-than-sharp in two starts since returning from the disabled list. Lefties have crushed him - both this season and over his career - so Hamilton will be in a good position to post some hits, steal a base or three, and maybe even tank one out of the park.

 

Also Consider: Javier Baez - CHC, Wilson Ramos - WAS, Kole Calhoun - LAA

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Miguel Montero - ARI: Montero will probably bat cleanup against Miami's Tom Koehler. The platoon advantage doesn't override pitcher friendly Marlins Stadium or Montero's apparent fatigue. However, we're in the bargain bin here, so when an able bodied cleanup hitter is found, it's worth a write up.

 

Danny Valencia - TOR: The Blue Jays acquired Valencia to give their lineup a little more oomph against left-handed pitchers. This year, he's at .367/.414/.506 against southpaws. Pull that out of the bargain bin at U.S. Cellular Field and you have a huge steal.

 

Curtis Granderson - NYM: Another prolonged slump has Granderson back in the cheap seats. His matchup with Dan Straily looks useful. Both Straily and Granderson have shown notable platoon splits over their careers, so Granderson looks well positioned to swing for the fences.

 

Also Consider: Kennys Vargas - MIN, Asdrubal Cabrera - WAS, Zach Walters - CLE

 

STARTING PITCHER

 

David Price - DET: It's a good day for top pitchers if you can find a way to afford them. Price is the least expensive of the elite, and he has the best matchup too. The Seattle Mariners feature a lefty heavy offense. Price should carve right through them while racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. The bad part about this matchup is his opponent - Felix Hernandez. This one lines up as a treat to watch, even if everyone involved is too expensive to use. Hopefully it doesn't rain.

 

Matt Shoemaker - LAA: Shoemaker has quietly posted the same kind of peripherals as the 2013 version of Corey Kluber. While Kluber's big adjustment came over the offseason, he was still an effective DFS asset last year. The same goes for Shoemaker now. With about a strikeout per inning and a low walk rate, he brings basic value to the table. He's only averaged about six innings per start, which is an area he could stand to improve. His matchup is desirable. The Rangers offense lacks firepower, and he's opposed by Colby Lewis. There is a good chance that the Angels will provide enough offense to give Shoemaker an easy win.

 

Rubby de la Rosa - BOS: He's a little pricier than your standard bargain pick, but he has the stuff to roll over the Astros. Judging from his previous performances, he's a high risk, high reward play. He's been allowed to pitch deep into the game when he's throwing well, but he's also produced some clunkers. I view de la Rosa as a diversification option rather than a target to invest all of my eggs. 

 

Also Consider - Sonny Gray - OAK, Jesse Hahn - SDP, Jeff Locke - PIT

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.