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Daily Forecast: Rocky in Coors

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

The Rockies will be happy to get back to Coors Field tonight after losing five of their last seven on the road. The poor pitcher who gets to take the brunt of their angst is Eric Stults. Though he was good in Pulp Fiction and Mask, he is not that good away from Petco.  This season he’s 0-3 with a 6.62 ERA in four starts on the road and has averaged just 4 innings pitched in those appearances.  He is hit hard by righties no matter the stadium, and we know what the ball does in Colorado, so feel free to stack your Rockies’ righties tonight against Rocky.

 

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $45,000 Fantasy Baseball league for Friday night's MLB games. It's $25 to join and first prize is $7,000. Starts at 7:05pm ET on Friday. Here's the FanDuel link.

 

 

TOP SHELF


Davis Ortiz – BOS – I usually try to ignore anyone facing Max Scherzer, but the way Ortiz has been playing coupled with his history against Scherzer, righties and at home, makes it impossible to fade him for me today. Over his last 8 games he’s an amazing 18 for 33 with 3 doubles, 5 home runs and 8 RBIs. He’s 7 for 15 off Scherzer with 3 home runs and 6 RBIs.  He hits righties at a crazy .416 wOBA over the last three years and at home an even crazier .424 wOBA. These are video game numbers to say the least.

 

Matt Kemp – LAD – Kemp was batting .205 on May 2nd and after his last game he’s up to .276. He’s not putting up huge numbers, but looks to be back on track while also getting a nice matchup against lefty Wade Miley who he has hit well in the past. Add that to him being on the good side of his splits against lefties in general, his better splits away and being in a good hitters’ park, and I’m on board.

 

Nolan Arenado – COL – Like I said earlier, if you can play a right-handed Coloradan tonight, go for it. Tulowitzki is by far the safest play tonight, but his price may be too constrictive. For his much cheaper price I like Arenado to put up similar points per cash value. He’s hit Stultz well so far in his career and his home/lefty splits are all the rage.

 

Also consider: Miguel Cabrera – DET, Yasiel Puig – LAD, Jose Abreu - CWS, Brandon Moss - OAK

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Anthony Rendon – WAS – I love getting Rendon against a lefty any chance I can get. He hits a great .391 wOBA against them and has averaged a nice .84 FanDuel points per plate appearance facing southpaws this season. Niese has pitched great this season, so this isn’t a no-brainer, but I still don’t mind targeting him against the poor side of his splits: a good lefty hitting righty on the road.

 

Yangervis Solarte – NYY – Solarte is heating up with three home runs in his last seven games and gets to hit from his favorite side of the plate tonight against Edinson Volquez who has given up 15 earned runs in his last three starts, including four home runs. Solarte has had all four of his homers against righties this season and shouldn’t have much trouble with Volquez tonight. (Sadly this game has been postponed)

 

John Jaso – OAK – You can’t get much hotter than Jaso right now. He has 10 hits in his last 21 at bats, including 2 doubles, 3 homers, 5 RBIs and 7 runs.  It’s almost impossible to not play him against a right-handed pitcher, who he almost exclusively faces. Zach McAllister is that righty he’ll get in Cleveland tonight, who Jaso is 4 for 10 against in his career.

 

Also consider: Robinson Cano – SEA, Josmil Pinto – MIN, Adrian Beltre - TEX

 

 

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Scott Van Slyke – LAD – Van Slyke has been mostly limited to starting against righties and for good reason. His splits are stark and until he can hit lefties this will be the norm, but that’s good news for us DFS players because his price will stay cheap and we can start him against righties as a punt play.

 

Jedd Gyorko – SDP – Well, it looked like Jedd had broken out when he went off on Jose Fernandez for two homers and six RBIs, but he’s slumped back down again over the last few games. The good news is that his price is also slumping and he gets a good matchup against lefty Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa allows a .341 wOBA to righties compared to a paltry .222 wOBA to lefties.  Gyorko has been awful for the most part this year, but does have 5 HRs and 20 RBIs, so if he makes contact, the ball will fly at Coors.

 

George Springer – HOU – We know he has the tools to put up big numbers and he’s now starting to show glimpses of that production with three home runs in his last seven games.  He gets to face a lefty in Jose Quintana, and as long as he’s below 3k at FanDuel I’ll be rolling him out there.

 

Also consider: Wil Myers – TAM, Carlos Quentin – SDP, Brandon Barnes - COL

 

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER


Yu Darvish – TEX – If you can go into Boston and come one out from a no-hitter then you can do just about anything. Darvish did just that his last time out so you can put just about any team up there against him and feel good about his chances. He hasn’t been unhittable this season, but he has the most upside of almost any pitcher right now. He’ll be just a GPP play for me tonight, because I like some of the cheaper options to be a bit safer to reach value, but Darvish can take over a game at any time and send your lineup shooting up the standings.


Lance Lynn – STL – There’s not a much better matchup than the Braves right now. They have an abysmal .276 OBP against righties, are striking out 24.3% of the time, average the second worst runs per game with 3.23 and will be in pitcher friendly St. Louis. Lynn has been hit and miss this season, so this recommendation doesn’t come without reservations, but I love the matchup and Lynn has a nice 9.18 K/9 rate at home over his last three seasons and Atlanta is all about raising pitchers’ K rates.

 

Tanner Roark – WAS – Roark has absolutely loved pitching at home in his short career. In his 35 innings pitched at home he has a 0.26 ERA, has given up 20 hits, no home runs, and struck out 27 while going 4-0. The Mets have a poor .295 OBP against righties this season and are striking out 22.8% of the time. I like Roark quite a bit for his price in this one.

 

Also consider: Zack Grienke - LAD, Ervin Santana – ATL, Sonny Gray - OAK



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