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Daily Forecast: Take Tanaka

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

So it finally happened, the Braves will face a left-handed pitcher in Colorado. It may feel like we are doubling down on the Braves who just put up a billion runs at Coors last night, but I think you have to against the rookie lefty Matzek. The Braves have destroyed lefties this season, batting a .360 wOBA against them, which is the highest in the league. Then couple that with Coors Field’s 30% power boost to righties (also the most in the league) and it’s hard to pass on the Braves even though everyone will most likely be stacking them tonight. Justin Upton (day to day with a hammy), Evan Gattis, Andrelton Simmons, and Chris Johnson are destroying southpaws this year and if they can do the same in Coors, you’ve got yourself a plethora of DFS points.

 


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TOP SHELF


Adrian Beltre – TEX – Jacob Turner doesn’t like pitching away from home and Arlington is not where you travel to change that fact. He allows 1.35 HR/9 away and 1.41 HR/9 to righties.  Beltre hits righties about equally to lefties for his career and this season he’s hitting them better than lefties. He’s also had four multi-hit games in a row. I’m loving Beltre tonight.

 

Anthony Rizzo – CHI – Brandon Cumpton has been keeping the ball in the yard, but currently has a 6.51 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. That’s really due to one blow up, but he is hittable, especially by lefties, which Rizzo is one. When he’s not fixing jeeps in his M*A*S*H unit, he’s hitting the tar out of the ball this season. He has five homers in the last ten games and hits righties better than lefties for his career.

 

Josh Hamilton – LAA – Hamilton has hit in five straight and has multi-hit games in four of those. He hits righties better for his career, but has been great against lefties this season, hitting 9-of-21 off them with two homers and seven RBIs. Milone actually gives up a higher wOBA to lefties and Hamilton has hit him well in the past, going 9-for-20 against him with two homers.

 

Also consider: Victor Martinez – DET, Miguel Cabrera – DET, Jose Abreu – CWS, Alex Rios - TEX

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Evan Gattis – ATL – Gattis has hit in 11 straight games, with five homers in that stretch. He’s only had 24 plate appearances against lefties, but has a .455 average against them, including three homers this season. Gattis is a main cog in my righties versus Maztek scheme.

 

Ian Kinsler – DET – Kinsler’s price and history against Danks are what draw me here.  He has been inconsistent, but we know what he can do and I like the Tigers to put some crooked numbers up against Danks in this one.

 

Dexter Fowler – HOU – The switch hitter is heating up with an eight game hitting streak in which he’s gone 15-for-29. Brandon McCarthy’s peripherals look good, but he just can’t keep from giving up runs. Until he figures it out I’m fine with targeting him, especially with the hot Fowler.

 

Also consider: Ian Desmond – WAS, Xander Bogaerts – BOS, Dustin Pedroia - BOS

 

 

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Chris Johnson – ATL – Coors Field has been kind to Johnson so far as he’s hit six for 11 there with a couple RBIs in the last two games. He hasn’t put up the big numbers like some of his teammates, but he’s making contact and now he gets to face a lefty. On the season he is hitting .394 against lefties and gets the rookie lefty in the hitter’s park. He will be on most of my teams tonight.

 

Andrelton Simmons – ATL – Simmons has been fairly awful this season, but he’s hitting lefties for a .382 average and 1.029 OPS and has done well against them for his career. At his price and the possible high score of this game, I think, like Johnson, he’s a must add.

 

Austin Jackson – DET – Jackson does his best hitting against lefties, of which John Danks is.  He also has been hitting well of late with eight hits in his last 16 at bats. He’s also hit Danks well in the past, going 15-of-39 off him with three home runs.

 

Eugenio Suarez – DET – The Tigers rookie shortstop has started off smoking hot with two homers in 11 at bats. He’s risky of course, but seems to hit well from both sides of the plate, while John Danks has been iffy at best this year.

 

Also consider: Kevin Kiermaier – TAM, Collin Cowgill – LAA, Matt Dominguez – HOU, Johnny Gomes – BOS, B.J. Upton – ATL, Nick Castellanos – DET, Rougned Odor – TEX

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER


Yu Darvish – TEX - Darvish continues to give up some extra base hits, but also continues to strike people out and mitigate his losses. Tonight he faces the Marlins who strike out at an alarming rate on the road. They lead the league in K% at 25.7% on the road.  This could be a special game for Darvish, the problem of course is fitting him into your lineup, but I’m liking some of the cheaper options tonight, so I think it’s possible.

 

Masahiro Tanaka – NYY – Here is another high-priced, but great option. Tanaka has been elite this season with a 2.02 ERA, 92 Ks in 84.2 innings and a 0.96 WHIP. He’s been good on the road as well and Seattle has had their troubles this season hitting the ball. They have a 24.8 K% at home, the second worst in the league. If you can fit either of these two elite pitchers then go for it.

 

Cole Hamels – PHI – Hamels has pitched back-to-back nice games and gets a great matchup with the Padres at home. The Fathers rank 30th in runs, batting average, OBP and SLG% and fifth worst in strikeout percentage. Hamels isn’t rock bottom cheap, but he’s much cheaper than the top guys and also has a lot of upside tonight. 

 

Also consider:  Michael Wacha – STL, Jason Hammel – CHI, Marcus Stroman – TOR