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Daily Forecast: Take Teheran

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

I’ve narrowed my choices for starters to target down to our old pal Kevin Correia, Colby Lewis and Brandon McCarthy. I have a soft spot for McCarthy, but his numbers are just awful this season. Correia had his best game of the season last week when I recommended targeting him, so that left a sour taste in the old gullet. Colby Lewis heads to Oakland, but has pitched relatively better on the road.  I think all have a great chance to get lit up, but I can’t get away from the fact that Correia is just not a good pitcher. Over the last 3+ years he has allowed a .338 wOBA to lefties and a .344 wOBA to righties and this season those numbers are even higher with .358 and .366 disrespectfully.  I will lean starting lefties against him because they get on base a little more often and I don’t like negative points, but righties have a bit more power against him, so either will do. 

 

The Red Sox haven’t been great this year, but still have some decent fantasy prospects, especially against Correia. Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt, Mike Napoli, David Ortiz, A.J. Pierzynski, and even Daniel Nava are worth considering in this one and if someone else gets pushed toward the top of the lineup, grab him too! 

 

 

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TOP SHELF

 

Victor Martinez – DET – You just can’t go wrong with VMart right now, especially when he’s facing a lefty, where he hitting at a crazy .520 wOBA this season. Vargas has been solid this year, but he’s also given up 10 home runs to righties.

 

Michael Brantley – CLE – Brantley hasn’t gone anywhere as he continues to hit the lights out.  He has 14 hits in his last 26 at bats, which includes three doubles and two home runs.  He’s hitting .335 against righties this season while Jered Weaver has allowed eight home runs to lefties. Weaver is a good pitcher, but he has been scuffling of late giving up 29 hits and 14 runs in his last 23.1 innings. And right-handed pitchers going into Cleveland have been shelled this year.

 

Paul Goldschmidt – ARI – Goldy is on a tear as usual with a current nine game-hitting streak that includes four home runs.  He gets Wily Peralta, who has been good this season, but Goldy has hit him well in the past and Wily isn’t much of a match for him, especially when he’s hitting like this. 

 

Also consider: Lonnie Chisenhall – CLE, Hanley Ramirez – LAD, Evan Gattis – ATL, Miguel Cabrera – DET, David Ortiz - BOS

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Yoenis Cespedes – OAK – Colby Lewis should have trouble in Oakland and Cespedes is one of those troublemakers.  He’s 17 for his last 52 (.327) and hits better at home. He’s also 3-for-4 off Lewis with a double and a triple. His price is what attracts me most because his upside far outweighs it.

 

Brock Holt – BOS – Holt is probably my favorite mid-range play of the day. He gets Mr. Correia at home where he is hitting .372 and leading off. He’s hit safely in 14 of his last 15 games and makes for a safe play in cash games.

 

Albert Pujols – LAA – Pujols has really been up and down this season, but the ups are worth paying for when you can hit them right. He’s hitting well right now as he’s gone eight for his last 18 with two doubles and a homer. He’s also hit in seven straight. Trevor Bauer has given up a home run every 6.2 innings so far in his short career and Pujols has hit a few of those in his time.

 

Also consider: Miguel Montero – ARI, Anthony Rizzo – CHC, Carlos Santana – CLE, Salvador Perez – KAN, Ian Kinsler – DET, Mike Napoli – BOS, Matt Kemp – LAD, Coco Crisp – OAK, Curtis Granderson – NYM, Scott Van Slyke – LA

 

 

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Matt Adams – STL – Can he make it four games in a row with a homer? It’s possible against Jacob deGrom who has given up five homers in 36 innings. De Grom has also been much worse on the road and against lefties. For his price it’s hard to keep the hot hitting Adams out of your lineup.

 

Eugenio Suarez – DET – The rookie just continues to hit. He’s yet to start a game and not get on base and is hitting .375 in his short career. He should get the start against lefty Vargas and even though he’s been batting at the bottom of the order, he’s still putting up better numbers than his price. If he happens to get a boost up the order he’s a must start for me, but even if not, he’s still cheap enough to get in there. 

 

Kole Calhoun – LAA – Calhoun has nine hits in his last 20 at bats and should get the start in the leadoff position against the righty Bauer. That right there is enough for me at his price to stick him in all my lineups.

 

Also consider: AJ Ellis – LAD, Scooter Gennett – MIL, Starlin Castro – CHC, Billy Butler – KC, Jeff Baker – MIA, Ben Zobrist - TAM

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER


Cole Hamels – PHI – Hamels is as risky as it gets against the lefty-killing Braves, but he also has a ton of upside against the free-swinging Braves. I’ll only be using him in tournaments due to that risk, but I will be using him there for sure. 

 

Julio Teheran – ATL – Teheran has quietly been having a great season. He’s allowed just a .254 wOBA this year while the Phillies are hitting just .290 wOBA against right-handers. He was rocked in Colorado his last time out, but still maintains a 2.41 ERA and .97 WHIP. Lefties are hitting just .181 against him and he has a stellar 1.24 ERA at home.  He’s not the strikeout king, but he gets enough to not hurt you in that area, especially at home where he’s getting one per inning. I like him a lot as Forrest Gump would say.

 

Tyson Ross – SDG – I like both pitchers in this one. It should be a low scoring affair with both teams struggling on offense, but Ross is the better strikeout artist and that means fake points for us! Seattle strikes out a whopping 24.6% of the time at home and averages just 3.34 runs there as well. Ross is striking out a player per inning and is coming off a nice game in Philly.

 

Also consider: Chris Young – SEA, Hyun-Jin Ryu – LAD, Wei-Yin Chen - BAL