The Rockies/Padres game has an 11 run over/under today, which are two runs more than any other game going. If the Padres had more firepower on offense I’m guessing that number would be even higher. The Rockies are pretty much a shambles right now, but they can still hit, especially at altitude. They have four hitters topping out over .400 wOBA against lefties this season and eight hitting over .360 wOBA at home.
Eric Stults has pitched a little better of late, but that mostly has to do with being in Petco the last three games. He is 0-7 on the road with a 5.44 ERA and is giving up a .302 average to the opposition.
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Troy Tulowitzki – COL (SS) – Tulo hasn’t been hitting at his record pace lately, but that doesn’t mean he’s not hitting at all. He’s hit in six straight and has especially owned lefties at home, hitting .474 against them with a .601 wOBA, .395 ISO, and other insane numbers. His price is down to manageable and he couldn’t get a much better matchup with Stults who gives up a .370 wOBA to righties.
Nelson Cruz – BAL (OF) – Cruz is hitting everything right now and is at a decent price for his production. He’s hit 11 for his last 16 at bats with two homers, three doubles and five RBIs. Doug Fister isn’t the easiest guy to hit, but Cruz has hit Fister well in the past and is locked in.
Michael Brantley – CLE (OF) – I’m a fan of Brandon McCarthy, but the move to the AL is not a good one for him. Brantley just hit Tanaka without much trouble last night, so McCarthy isn’t going to slow him down much with his .365 wOBA allowed to lefties this season and Brantley’s .411 wOBA against righties isn’t too bad either.
Carlos Gomez – MIL (OF) – Gomez’s price has fallen quite a bit and he is coming off a nice game last night. He gets the very hittable Roberto Hernandez at home and owns a .391 wOBA this season against righties while Hernandez has been worse against righties and on the road.
Drew Stubbs – COL (OF) – Stubbs vs. Stults should go in Stubbs favor today. Stubbs has a .438 wOBA against lefties and is 3-for-6 off Stultz.
Matt Adams – STL (1B) – Adams just continues to hit righties this season. He has a .369 average and .413 wOBA against them and gets the manageable righty Brandon Cumpton. He rarely puts up a negative day and is great for 50/50s.
Chase Headley – SDP (3B) – Headley has been horrible along with most of his battery mates this season, but has shown signs of life at Coors. He gets Jurrjens who was shelled in his first start for Colorado and Headley is hitting righties better than lefties this season.
Stephen Vogt – OAK (C) – Vogt is batting .392 in 74 at bats against righties this year and is 11 for his last 28. He’s not going to put up big numbers, but should be worth the punt play against Matt Cain who has been poor this year, especially on the road.
Kolten Wong - STL (2B) – Wong now has two homers in his last three games, including the game winner last night. He gets a nice matchup against Cumpton who is at his worst against lefties.
Chris Sale – CWS – The Red Sox haven’t been burning down many barns lately and Sale has been putting out fires all over the place. He’s been better at home than on the road, but maybe not being selected to the All-Star team will get him fueled for this one. And even if it doesn’t, he’s just so good that I’m not too worried about his home away splits, which aren’t atrocious by any means.
Yu Darvish – TEX – Darvish’s home/away splits are night and day this season. At home he has a 1.83 ERA and 72 Ks in 59 innings. Away he has a 3.58 ERA and still a lot of K’s, butnot as many. Houston is a better team than they have been, but Darvish has owned them and has been great at home this year. I expect a bounce back game.
Jason Hammel – OAK – The Giants have been beyond awful of late with a league low .249 wOBA over the last 14 days. Hammel's trade mate Jeff Samardzija did well in his first start as an A against a much tougher Toronto team, while Hammel gets eased in against a NL team on the road and will get to continue to pitch against pitchers and in a great pitchers’ park in San Francisco. He’s also pitched well this season and will want to get off to a good start with his new team.