The Colorado/St. Louis game has a fat 11 run over/under today, and of course we’ll look for some good plays there, but I’ll be targeting the heat and pitcher friendly park in Arlington for tonight’s pitcher to exploit. I like both the Rangers and Tigers to put up some numbers in this game, but the Tigers have been hitting extremely well of late and take on Colby Lewis who has been allowing the opposition to hit very well as well. He’s given up five or more earned runs in five of his last eight games and he’s been worse at home than on the road. While the Tigers have hit right-handed hitters for a .335 wOBA and are striking out just 18% of the time against them this season. They are also hitting a .351 wOBA over the last two weeks and looks like they got a nice spark after losing two to KC to relinquish first place for a second last week.
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Victor Martinez – DET – As I said, I’m really targeting Detroit players tonight. Their prices aren’t the greatest, but Lewis has been hot garbage this season. Martinez has hit him well in the past and is hitting better on the road with a .349 average and 11 of his 19 home runs.
Jose Abreu – CWS – Abreu continues the power show with three homers in his last six games. Miguel Gonzalez has allowed a .383 wOBA and 7 home runs in 29 innings to righties this season while Abreu has hit 16 homers against righties.
Adam Jones – BAL – Jones has hit four homers in his last eight games. And is 6 for 13 with two homers in his last three. He’s hitting a crazy .410 with a 1.246 OPS against lefties this season and has had success against Quintana, going 3-for-6 against him with two homers.
J.D. Martinez – DET – Martinez is scoring .88 FanDuel points per plate appearance against righties this season and he’s now hit in 12 straight games. His price has raised a bit, but not enough to scare you away, especially with a great matchup in a great hitter’s park.
Alex Rios – TEX – Rios has been serviceable all season, but against lefties he’s been masterful. In 65 at bats he has 27 hits (.415 avg), 7 doubles, 4 triples, and two home runs. That’s a lofty .492 wOBA against lefties and he takes on Drew Smyly who is giving up an also lofty .372 wOBA to righties.
Melky Cabrera – TOR – Melky has been a thorn in the side of his old team, going 11 for 29 against them this season with four homers. He’s hit David Phelps hard as well, going 5-for-11 against him with two homers. He’s also had five multi-hit games in his last six.
Brock Holt – BOS – This one is pretty much a price play. Holt’s price on FanDuel is just too low at 3k for his ability. Erasmo Ramirez has given up nine homers in just 48 innings and Holt should be getting on base against him from the top of the order.
C.J. Cron – LAA – Cron has hit home runs in his last three games. He’s hitting right-handed pitching better than lefties at the moment. Kyle Gibson has been pitching great lately, but has been roughed up on the road this season. For Cron’s price and current hot streak it’s hard to pass him up.
Steve Pearce – BAL – Pearce has 11 hits in his last 24 at bats with four doubles, two homers and seven RBIs. Jose Quintana is no slouch, but he can be hit and Pearce is batting .393 at home. I like his chance to provide value.
Scott Kazmir – OAK – The Mets have the least runs per game at home with 3.11. Beating the Padres out as the worst offensively is a pretty tough task. Kazmir has been good at home and away this season and has accumulated a 9-2 record with a 2.08 ERA and .95 WHIP. The Mets strike out 25% of the time against lefties this season, which should help boost Kazmir’s K numbers.
Tim Hudson – SFG – Hudson had his worst game of the season against the White Sox his last time out and it was bad, really, really bad. He gave up seven earned runs in 4.2 innings while he had given up seven earned runs in his previous 48 innings. Thankfully tonight he should be able to right the ship against the Padres at home. His strikeout numbers are what keep his fantasy points from skyrocketing, but the Padres strikeout close to 23% of the time versus righties.
Wade Miley – ARI – Cleveland has more left-handed hitters than they know what to do with, while Miley is a lefty himself and has held lefties to a .284 wOBA for his career. This is a tourney play because he can get lit up, especially at home.