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Daily Forecast: Wrigley Spring

by Chet Gresham
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

 

I’m focusing on the Cubs/Brewers game today. After a late snowstorm and the temps that come with that, Wrigley was not fit for man nor Ronnie Woo-Woo, but today it looks like some southern spring breeze is coming to town. It’s not going to be a gale force wind, but any wind out at Wrigley is a good sign, especially when both Travis Wood and Marco Estrada give up on average over a home run per game. Ryan Braun and Starlin Castro will be my main picks at Clark and Addison, but I think others will benefit as well. 

 

 

TOP SHELF


Yasiel Puig– LAD – Puig is killing the ball right now with five home runs in his last eight games and it's hard to imagine Josh Collmenter doing much to slow him down, especially the way the ball flies in the desert.

 

Ryan Braun – MIL – Travis Wood gives up 1.12 HR per 9 innings against lefties and 1.14 HR/9 at home. Ryan Braun has hit lefties at a .460 wOBA over the last 3 years. He hasn’t put on any shows since returning from the DL, but this could be the day.

 

David Ortiz– BOS – Anibal Sanchez returns from the DL to face the Red Sox on the road. That isn’t the most welcoming of returns. Ortiz has hit safely in 15 of the last 16 games and he's also had success against Sanchez with a double and two home runs in three at bats.

 

Also consider: Troy Tulowitzki – COL, Brandon Moss – OAK,

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Jose Altuve – HOU –Altuve has had 15 hits in his last nine games and gets to take on a lefty in Danks. He is hitting .449 against lefties this season and Danks hasn't been anything special with a 4.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Altuve won't get you huge numbers, but he's about as safe for positive points as you'll get.

 

Hunter Pence – SFG – The Marlins' Jacob Turner has yet to win a game on the road in his career and in his 4 starts this season he has given up 16 earned runs. For a righty, his splits show that he is much better against left-handed batters. Against righties he has given up a .358 wOBA and a 1.65 HR/9 rate. Pence is a righty and has 11 hits in in his last 5 games.

 

Starlin Castro – CHI – Marco Estrada has given up 10 home runs in his first eight starts this season and now he'll get to pitch in Wrigley with the breeze out. All six of Castro's home runs have come against righties this season and Estrada has reverse splits so far this year as well as for his career, with righties hitting him much better than lefties.

 

Also consider: Yangervis Solarte – NYY, Seth Smith – SD, Robinson Cano – SEA,

 

 

 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Pablo Sandoval – SFG – Sandoval has hit in eight straight games. He's not putting up big numbers, but he's a safe punt play for his low, low price.

 

Carl Crawford – LAD – Crawford has hit a homer in each of his last two games in Arizona and faces a hittable righty in Collmenter. Another home run would be remarkable, but it's hard to deny he's got some juice in that bat right now.

 

George Springer – HOU – Springer has an RBI in four straight games and is finally getting on track. He hasn't really hit his upside yet, but at just $2900 he doesn't have to give you much to get you value for your buck. Danks is a hittable lefty on the road. Springer should keep his RBI streak alive.

 

Also consider: Brian McCann – NYY,  Leonys Martin – TEX, Matt Joyce – TAM, Chris Owings - ARI

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER


Cliff Lee– PHI – Lee has had two games where he was shelled this season, but in the seven games where he didn’t get rocked, he has allowed only eight earned runs. Run support has been a problem, but he still has had good stuff. The Reds have had trouble with lefties this season with just a .292 wOBA against them and they are only scoring 3.47 runs per game on the road. I think Lee takes advantage of their hitting woes today.

 

Jesse Chavez – OAK – Chavez continues to impress this season with a 2.44 ERA and 51 Ks in 51 innings pitched. I like the chances of the A's getting to Masterson today and giving Chavez a cushion to work with as well.

 

Ubaldo Jimenez – BAL – In three starts in May Jimenez has a 0.46 ERA. The Royals aren't really scaring anyone with their 3.68 runs per game at home either. Shields is no slouch, but always has a tougher time at home than on the road. For his price Ubaldo has a good chance to hit value.

 

Also consider: Jordan Zimmermann – WAS, David Price - TAM