After taking three straight games from the Rangers by a combined 29-5 margin, the Rockies offense has achieved borderline juggernaut status. While there is a strong temptation to keep stacking the Colorado bats, you may be better off scanning the opposing dugout to find the most likely “run parade” of the night. The Texas Rangers, who are trying to avoid a humiliating sweep, have a great matchup against the lefty Franklin Morales.
Morales has demonstrated blowup potential in the past, and while he does pitch better on the road, it’s hard to take comfort in the hitting-friendly park in Arlington. He has a very exploitable .351 wOBA against right-handed batters, and the cherry on top comes in the form of his 44% flyball rate (1.5 HR/9) that breathes life into the power hitting potential from the Texas lineup.
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Troy Tulowitzki – COL: To say Tulowitzki is putting up “video game numbers” would be a gross understatement. So far this month, he has gone 14/23 (.609) with 2 HR’s and 9 RBI’s. You will likely need some cheat codes to replicate that in MLB The Show 14. It’s safe to say that regression will come at some point in time, but not today against a very hittable lefty in the struggling Matt Harrison.
Miguel Cabrera – DET: Like Tulowitzki, Miggy is also in a prime position this evening against a generous left-handed hurler. Don’t necessarily expect his third homerun in as many nights, as the Astros’ Dallas Keuchel is a groundball-oriented pitcher, but Cabrera should continue his hot hitting in the middle of a Detroit lineup poised to inflict damage tonight.
Yasiel Puig – LAD: San Francisco's Ryan Vogelsong has been a notorious pitcher to target against early in this 2014 season. It’s the same old “song n’ dance” in Los Angeles tonight, and I like Puig the most of any Dodgers, considering his team-high .393 wOBA against right-handed pitching. NOTE: Puig played yesterday for the first time since sustaining an injury over the weekend, and he doesn’t appear to have any ill-effects moving forward.
Adrian Beltre – TEX: Beltre is a borderline top-shelf item today, but his salary cap pricing ($3,900 on FanDuel) is slightly less than the previously mentioned sluggers. For that reason, he’s the #1 bulk purchase/mid-range option of the day. I already listed opposing pitcher, Franklin Morales’ inefficiencies, and Beltre crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of .385 wOBA and .231 ISO.
Ian Kinsler – DET: Kinsler and Dee Gordon look like the most viable 2B options tonight, and they can both be found in the “mid-range” pricing category for salary cap leagues. I’m siding with the leadoff man from Detroit due to a slightly better matchup and more security from run scoring potential against Keuchel and the Astros.
Wil Myers – TB: Myers is a great option to target in daily games due to his upside for multiple hits/HR’s on any given night. The odds of him achieving that are marginally better this evening, as he faces the shaky pitching of Ubaldo Jimenez, who has some reverse-splits with a .337 wOBA against right-handed batters.
Corey Hart – SEA: Royals pitcher, Danny Duffy, is extremely generous to right-handed batters (.360 wOBA), and Hart is in the best position to take advantage of that, batting cleanup for the Mariners. He has a fantastic wOBA against left-handed pitching (.401 in past three years), which vaults Hart into one of the top 10-15 overall hitters of the day.
Juan Francisco – TOR: Francisco has been great lately with a seven game hit-streak to go along with 2 HR’s and 7 RBI’s over that span. Opposing pitcher, A.J. Burnett has been kind to lefties (.329 wOBA), and Francisco has the added security of being surrounded by other capable hitters in one of the higher projected scoring games of the day.
Michael Choice – TEX: As I mentioned in the introduction, Choice is a great value play within the Texas stack. He would receive a nice upgrade if he’s hitting 2nd in the lineup like last night, but he’s a solid play regardless of his spot in the order.
David Price – TB: Price is the only true ace on the bump tonight, and he’s established as the clear-cut #1 pitching option for fantasy purposes. Playing at home doesn't hurt his cause, and the Orioles rank 27th in hitting against left-handed pitchers. Throw in the fact that Price’s counterpart, Ubaldo Jimenez, has been shaky to begin the 2014 season, and you a favorable environment for a win to go along with the usual 7-8+ strikeouts.
Josh Beckett – LAD: With three straight quality starts under his belt, I’m very inclined to fire up Beckett as a slim home favorite over the Giants tonight. His strikeout rate has been impressive, averaging 7 K’s in the past three games. While Beckett doesn’t have a win to his name yet this season, I like his chances tonight, as I already mentioned the Dodgers’ bats as a great source of run support vs Vogelsong.
Drew Smyly – DET: Smyly isn’t part of Detroit’s usual pitching rotation, but he has been impressive in his last two starts, totaling 13 IP, 13K’s, and just 2 ER in those games. Tonight, he is listed as the largest favorite of any starting pitcher with a fantastic home draw against the Astros 28th ranked offense.