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Best of luck and happy drafting!
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These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.
Aaron Rodgers – QB – Green Bay (DRAFT Projection: 19.5)
Rodgers has racked up back-to-back 28+ fantasy point performances against Detroit and San Francisco. The common denominator of those matchups is game flow – as the Packers went to the air while trailing in each contest. Green Bay settles in as a 9.5 point road underdog against the Rams this week, and this is the highest over/under of the week (56). In other words, I’m expecting Rodgers to throw the ball upwards of 50 times in this game. The Rams have been vulnerable against the pass at time this season, as Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, and Case Keenum all notched solid fantasy outings against them. Rodgers checks in as my second favorite QB on this slate, an upgrade from his current of ninth at the position on DRAFT.
Joe Mixon – RB – Cincinnati (DRAFT Projection: 12.3)
Mixon was a flat-out bust at Kansas City on Sunday Night Football last week. Go ahead and remove that from your memory bank, as it’s nothing more than a blip on the radar. Mixon will continue to be heavily involved in this Cincinnati offense, and he has a fantastic bounce-back matchup vs Tampa Bay. The Bengals should be able to move the ball with regularity on this Bucs’ defense, and Mixon could benefit with a score or two. Cincinnati is favored by 4.5 points, so game flow should dictate that he gets plenty of touches. I’m moving Mixon to seventh overall on this slate, sixth at the running back position (complete rankings in the section below).
Jarvis Landry – WR – Cleveland (DRAFT Projection: 10.1)
Landry had a few down weeks in early October, but it wasn’t due to a lack of targets. The Browns’ top receiver finally got on the same page as QB Baker Mayfield with a sweet 10-97-1 line on 15 targets last Sunday. Some of that momentum should carry into a nice draw at Pittsburgh, who has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing receivers. The Browns will likely turn to the air while trying to keep pace with the high-powered Steelers’ offense. That should lead to plenty of volume and subsequent fantasy production for Landry. I’m boosting his projection up to 13.2 FP.
These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.
Deshaun Watson – QB – Houston (DRAFT Projection: 20.0)
The matchup vs Miami doesn’t look too bad on paper, but I’m concerned about the health of Deshaun Watson. The subpar nature of this offensive line doesn’t help the situation either. In case you haven’t heard, Watson has been playing through injury over the past few weeks, and the results reflect that something isn’t right. He has a rib injury that forced him to take a bus from Houston to Jacksonville last weekend instead of flying with the team. That doesn’t sound too promising. I’m taking a wait and see approach with Watson, subsequently removing him from my DRAFT boards this week.
Michael Thomas – WR – New Orleans (DRAFT Projection: 16.0)
Thomas has been slowing down following a frantic pace to begin the season. On top of that, this is a tough road matchup at Minnesota, who has allowed the fifth-least fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. That even includes the Rams feasting on them earlier this season. No matter how you slice it, Thomas is probably overrated as the second-ranked wide receiver on DRAFT. I would rather take Thielen, Brown, Beckham, Adams, Green, Hill, and Hopkins ahead of him. Keep that in the back of your mind while drafting, as there will likely be somebody willing to “overpay” simply due to his default ranking.
David Johnson – RB – Arizona (DRAFT Projection: 16.6)
Poor David Johnson. He has found himself in the overrated section more than any other player this season. It’s not his fault either. He’s on a rebuilding team that can’t move the ball with regularity. That offensive line is a huge problem as well. His matchup vs San Francisco isn’t bad on paper, but it’s difficult to trust the Arizona RB due to the lack of help around him. Johnson is currently listed as the seventh running back on DRAFT. I’ll downgrade him to 11 or 12 at the position.
Top 10 Overall. The biggest movers here are Adam Thielen (jumps to WR1), Joe Mixon (mentioned earlier), and AJ Green (jumps to WR4). I’ll be trying my best to secure a pair of running backs from this group, as that position has much less depth than WR or QB.
- Todd Gurley – RB
- Saquon Barkley – RB
- Kareem Hunt – RB
- James Conner – RB
- Adam Thielen – WR
- Joe Mixon – RB
- James White – RB
- Antonio Brown – WR
- DeAndre Hopkins – WR
- AJ Green – WR
Quarterback Rankings. I wait for a quarterback almost every week, and this time around will be no different. Both Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins are underrated despite having tasty respective matchups. I’ll likely snag one of them in the final round of six-person leagues. Other underrated QBs like Luck or Dalton make for fine backup plans as well.
- Patrick Mahomes – Tier 1
- Aaron Rodgers – Tier 1
- Kirk Cousins – Tier 2
- Tom Brady – Tier 2
- Drew Brees – Tier 2
- Andrew Luck – Tier 2
- Jared Goff – Tier 3
- Ben Roethlisberger – Tier 3
- Jameis Winston – Tier 3
- Andy Dalton – Tier 3
Latavius Murray underrated? Rumors are swirling that Dalvin Cook may miss the next two games. If we can confirm that, Lat Murray would need a firm upgrade closer to a projection of 11.5 FP – subsequently putting him into firm RB2 territory.
Return of the Mack. I’m having a difficult time ranking Marlon Mack after his fantasy outburst last Sunday. He has game flow and a good matchup at Oakland, and it seems he has earned more carries through his performance. As of now, I believe he’s a fine filler at RB2 in most leagues, but I’m still trying to squeeze more stable running backs (ranked higher) into my lineup.
Updated for injuries, weather, etc will be posted here throughout the week – highlighting the DRAFT consequences of each situation.