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Emiliano Grillo
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DFS Dish

DFS Dish: Arnold Palmer Invitational

by Josh Culp
Updated On: March 3, 2020, 10:22 am ET

Leg two of the Florida Swing will take place this week in Orlando, Florida. 

It's Arnie's Invite with 121 golfers set to peg it at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. That's 23 fewer golfers than last week at the Honda, which means a higher percentage of golfers will get a guaranteed four rounds. That's a key consideration for DFS gamers whose primary goal is often to get all of their golfers through the cut line. 

This week's course is known for lots of long-iron play, water hazards, and lightning-fast bermuda greens. 

Let's check out the weather, find some trending golfers, and then look at who might like the bermudagrass greens at Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

Weather Update

Thursday (R1): Partly Cloudy with a high of 84 degrees. Winds at 9 to 14 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH!

Friday (R2): Mostly sunny with a high of 74 degrees. Winds at 7 to 9 MPH with gusts up to 19 MPH. 

Mother Nature is putting up the wind filter on Thursday to remove all the pretenders. There could be some early ejections on a tough track with water in play on nine holes. 

Finding Form

I am going to focus on some recent results in this section to highlight what golfers may be trending in the right direction. 

Abraham Ancer -- Everyone that pegged it in the Presidents Cup seems to be finding the winner's circle. Could Ancer be next? Looking at his last five worldwide events he has gained strokes over the field in 17-of-20 rounds which is a stellar rate of consistency. He has seven rounds of 67 or better over that stretch including a final-round 63 at The American Express. A good blend of consistency and go-low potential.

Hideki Matsuyama -- I generally look for overall trending form but how about ball-striking form? That is where Matsuyama grades out well. He's gained strokes off-the-tee in nine of his last 10 rounds played and gained strokes on approach in 16 of his last 19 measured rounds. He's turned that into top 20s in four of his last five starts. 


Course Fit

Staying on bermudagrass greens, let's peak in to see who likes playing on the grainy stuff. 

Looking at sample-size-adjusted performance in rounds played on bermuda greens since 2018 (PGA, KFT, Euro Tour) the top performers on a per-round basis looks like this: 

Rory McIlroy
Tommy Fleetwood
Jason Day
Marc Leishman
Justin Rose
Bryson DeChambeau
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Rickie Fowler
Xander Schauffele
Byeong Hun An
Emiliano Grillo
Sungjae Im
Adam Scott
Rory Sabbatini
Charles Howell III

Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on bermuda (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  

Emiliano Grillo
Jamie Lovemark
Austin Cook
Chris Kirk
Keith Mitchell
Kyle Stanley
Jimmy Walker
Patton Kizzire
Rory Sabbatini
Si Woo Kim
Kramer Hickok
Chesson Hadley
Zach Johnson
Dylan Frittelli
Ryan Armour

Overlap List: Looking for overlap on the two lists we see Emiliano Grillo and Rory Sabbatini

Not any big names on the list this week, but these are two possible longer shots that could pay off in a DFS lineup. 

Value Spotlight

Emiliano Grillo: The putter has been ice-cold for over a year now. At one point in 2018 he had gained strokes putting in 13 of 14 measured events but since then he's lost strokes putting in 21 of 26 events. That's not what you love to see when looking to round out your roster but the Argentine has gained strokes putting in 7-of-12 rounds played at Bay Hill Club & Lodge with +1.9 SGP in four of those rounds. That's resulted in top 30s in all three trips to the API. His lack of consistency probably keeps him out of your core targets this week but Grillo does present himself as an interesting flyer to toss into some GPP lineups. 

Best of luck in all your contests this week! 

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.