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Tyrrell Hatton
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DFS Dish

DFS Dish: THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 15, 2019, 10:14 am ET

The Club at Nine Bridges will host for a third straight season. 

It's a field of 78 golfers with no cut-line to worry about. 

For DFS purposes that means that hole-by-hole scoring becomes a big deal. Give a bump to those golfers that play aggressive and give themselves a few extra eagle opps per event. 

With no cut-line to worry about, gamers are able to take a few extra risks this week and try to cash in with finish-position bonuses at the top. 

Weather Update

Thursday (R1): Partly Cloudy with a high of 69 degrees. Winds at 7 to 12 MPH. 

Friday (R2): Patches of rain with a high of 68 degrees. Winds at 10 to 12 MPH. 

Wind is always a concern when heading to an island course but right now the winds look relatively light. They should be a factor but not cause complete havoc. 

DRAFT.com 

The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts. 

The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings. 
 

OVERRATED GOLFERS

Scott Piercy (66.08 Projected Pts): It's pretty efficient pricing on DRAFT this week but Piercy is one that I would drop down my board a bit. He enters with finishes outside the top 35 in five of his last six starts. He did finish T5 here last year but I'm not going to chase a one-year sample of course history. 

Ryan Palmer (71.62 Projected Pts): Similar to Piercy, he seems to be getting a boost from his top 5 here last year (T3). Palmer enters with finishes outside the top 35 in four of his last five starts. He's not playing terrible but not worth worth a top-10 pick in this week's field. 

UNDERRATED GOLFERS

Collin Morikawa (42.03 Projected Pts): I said that pricing is pretty efficient this week but there are some obvious mistakes. Morikawa is one that sticks out like a sore thumb. His performance since turning pro is similar to that of a top-25 golfer in the world so there is no reason for him to be near the bottom of this week's field. 

Matthew Wolff (47.05 Projected Pts): Not as steady as Wolff since joining the pro ranks but Wolff provides that top-heavy upside that isn't easily found at this projection range. If you're looking for a Home Run option then Wolff is a good target. 

Course Fit

The Club at Nine Bridges added 45 yards this year but it's still on the short side of the spectrum when it comes to PGA TOUR courses. Especially if you factor in a touch of elevation that will give the golfers a small boost in the yardage department. 

Looking at sample-size-adjusted performance on short courses over the last three 3 years (PGA, KFT, Euro Tour) the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this: 

Gary Woodland
Jason Day
Sergio Garcia
Justin Thomas
Ian Poulter
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Phil Mickelson
Tommy Fleetwood
Tyrrell Hatton
Hideki Matsuyama
Charles Howell III
Chez Reavie
Marc Leishman
Kevin Streelman
Sungjae Im

Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on short courses (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  

K.J. Choi
Gary Woodland
Phil Mickelson
Sergio Garcia
Ian Poulter
Jason Day
Danny Lee
Kevin Tway
Kevin Streelman
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Si Woo Kim
Tyrrell Hatton
Jazz Janewattananond
Harold Varner III
Graeme McDowell

Overlap List: Looking for overlap on the two lists we see Gary Woodland, Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Ian Poulter, Jason Day, Kevin Streelman, Rafa Cabrera Bello, and Tyrrell Hatton

The overlap is a bit longer than usual but that's just due to the smaller field size. It's easier to be inside the top 15 on both lists, if you are only competing with 50 other golfers or so (since a chunk of the field has tiny sample sizes). Overall, this list gives us a good list of names to add to our radar this week.  We need to factor in form before we lock them into our lineups, though. 

Value Spotlight

Tyrrell Hatton: The Englishman made it through last year's CJ CUP without a single 3-putt. He was one of just two golfers to accomplish that feat (Joel Dahmen). Golfers have had similar struggled on the greens at Chapultepec for the WGC Mexico but Hatton has feasted on those greens as well (0 three-putts over his first 8 rounds before struggling a bit this year with 4).  The takeaway here is that Hatton is a great putter that can handle the tricky greens at Nine Bridges. His form is simmering with back-to-back top 20s which makes him a solid play when looking to start a balanced build this week. 

Best of luck in all your contests this week! 

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.