Jack Nicklaus will play host to 120 elite golfers at this week's Memorial Tournament.
While milkshakes are always on the menu at Jack's Place, rain is also a common order that is fulfilled by Mother Nature when the Memorial rolls around. This week will be no different.
We will talk about that in the weather update then search for some value across the DFS industry.
Thursday (R1): Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers/storms. High of 78 degrees with calm morning winds that pick up to 15 MPH in the afternoon.
Friday (R2): Sunny with a low chance of showers (30%). High of 77 degrees with winds at 5-to-10 MPH.
Tornadoes ripped through the area on Monday and Muirfield Village received an inch and a half of rain. There are boomers in the forecast all week so any chance of a firm and fast golf course are out the window.
As for tee-time advantages, it looks like Thursday PM will get the worst of the wind but if storms delay action then it's unclear which golfers will actually be on the course at that time.
Definitely keep an eye on the forecase in the lead-up but right now there doesn't look like any actionable data in the forecast.
The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts.
The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings.
Keith Mitchell (63.40 Projected Pts): The Georgia Bulldog has come right out and told us that he loves bermuda. In order to love the surface, he needs to dislike others. That certainly appears to be the case as his performance on bent/poa show a decline of about .65 shots per round, compared to his baseline. That is the second-worst dropoff in the field. I think Mitchell will eventually figure out other surfaces the more he plays them but until he flashes some top-heavy finishes on bent/poa I will gladly avoid.
Jason Kokrak (65.05 Projected Pts): The big hitter has Ohio ties but that's never helped him at Jack's Place. He is just 1-for-5 at this event, despite the smaller-than-normal field size. Six of his 12 rounds recorded have been 76 or higher. Arriving with stellar season-long form, he should be popular at this draft spot but I will gladly let someone else take that risk.
Jim Furyk (54.09 Projected Pts): Despite the ugly putting stroke he's picked up, Furyk arrives in great season-long form. He finished top 15 last week at Colonial which was his eighth top 25 of the season. He also has seven top 10s at Muirfield Village. A combination of form and history makes him a great pick this week. Give him a boost on your draft board.
Tyrrell Hatton (58.99 Projected Pts): It's been a ho-hum season for Hatton but he finally cracked his first top 10 in a stroke-play event last week at Colonial (T8). After a pair of missed cuts in Florida, he's started to pick up a bit of steam with four straight cuts made, worldwide. I will ride the wave of upward form this week as the Englishman takes his first look at Muirfield Village.
Muirfield Village Golf Club features some of the fastest greens the pros see all year.
They are primary bentgrass but there is no keeping the poa annua out of them. Let's see who fares best on bentgrass/poa annua greens.
Looking at sample-adjusted performance on bent/poa greens since the start of 2014, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this:
Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on Bent/Poa (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:
Finau just popped last week on bentgrass. He played in the final group at the Masters this year (lightning fast, bentgrass greens). As for Hatton, he also showed up well last week with his best finish of the season. That came on bentgrass greens. His career-best finish on the PGA TOUR came at the WGC-Mexico Championship (poa annua). It could be a good week to ride the momentum .
Jim Furyk: Muirfield Village has been a happy hunting ground for Furyk as he enters with a 20-for-23 record that includes a win in 2002 and six other top 10s. You'd never know it based on his recent history (missed cuts in 2017 and 2018) but let's check his form before those missed cuts. In 2017 he arrived on the heels of four straight missed cuts. In 2018 he wasn't much better with three of his four lead-in starts being T66 or worse. Furyk was playing through injury but is now healthy again. He's arriving off a T13 at Colonial last week and I like his chances to post another top 25 this week at Jack's Place. Something he's done in 15-of-23 appearances at the Nicklaus Design.
Best of luck in all your contests this week!